How I Know We're in for a Rough Economic Ride

I'm not an economist, and I don't play one on TV. But regardless of what the likes of Senator Saxby Chambliss and George Will have to say, it's clear we are still on a downward trend with the economy, and no one can see the bottom of that pit just yet.

How do I know if I don't have a Ph.D. in something that involves math or economic theory?

Well, I had lunch at Burger King last week and there was no one in line ahead of me, which struck me as a little odd. And there was no one behind me. The cashier behind the counter exclaimed when he saw he, "Oh, thank God -- a customer!"

The cashier at Ann Taylor Loft, where I went in search of a new sweater as I was armed with my 20% off coupon, told me at the check out I wouldn't need it. "All the sale merchandise is an additional 40% off," she told me. That almost made the sweater free -- and Ann Taylor Loft didn't care as long as they could make some kind of sale. Any sale.

One of my stepdaughters is pretty sure a series of E-mails over the Thanksgiving day holiday, cryptic though some of them were, means she doesn't have much of a job to go back to. And she wasn't the only family member worried that the days ahead will bring a pink slip, not a promotion.

And when a lunch of cold-cuts is offered, but the hosts don't eat any of nicely arranged turkey or cheese, claiming they're really not all that hungry, it doesn't take a team of economic advisers to know that people are hunkering down for worse things to come and want to make food stretch as far as possible.

I'm sure such anecdotal evidence isn't the stuff that the likes of Alan Greenspan or Robert Rubin rely on. And I admit those few incidents don't a case study make.

But the list of little things keeps growing that sends a message -- sort of like when you see squirrels hoarding nuts too early in the season and know that's just the first sign of a harsh winter that you don't want to acknowledge.

I'd love to be wrong. If I am, the next round of sandwiches at Burger King is on me.

Joanne Bamberger is better known around the blogosphere as PunditMom, which is also the name of her political blog. Joanne is a writer and political commentator who lives outside of Washington, D.C.

Follow Joanne Bamberger on Twitter: www.twitter.com/PunditMom

Comments

[MajorKong]

I work in the air freight business. This summer, our cargo loads were back to 1998 levels. I suspect it's only gotten worse since then.

[deminmo]

It's better not to be an economist, you can see things more
clearly. Without a doubt if our government continues with
the same actions they are taking now, our economy will
tank, or go over a cliff as one economist said. When it does
it will cause a domino effect, and could very well shut down
everything including government. More bailouts are not the
long term answer. Getting Americans back on their feet,
providing funds for roads and other infrastructure is. But
that will take a year to get jobs really going. Hit the housing
market, pay off bad mortgages and make banking and Wall
Street operate within strick supervised bounderies.
Otherwise, we can kiss our way of life goodby.

[javaman]

here's a temp check to see where we are heading; I was just at whole foods. I forgot my lunch and went over there to get some soup (all that I could afford). Usually at lunch time, the place is packed and it's virtually impossible to get a place to sit. Today, I had the run of the place. Sit near the windows? no problem. Or anywhere for that matter.

if in a few months, when times are really tough and I forget my lunch again, I will just go over there to see how many people are there lunching, certainly not to buy.

[LondonTownNY]

Joanne: You make some simple but rather astute observations. I fear that we are in for one of the worst periods Economically in my lifetime, perhaps in the history of this country, times which will challenge the faith and humanity of us all. The warning signs are growing. The little people, the regular people and people above the regular people are hurting in ways that are painful to discuss. People seem to be retreating and withdrawing inward.

[TXfemmom]

We were in one of our favorite restaurants tonight, and it was family night. Usually, the place is packed, but tonight, only six tables were full, out of thirty tables. I know this is anecdotal, but this seems to be the case wherever I go.

[kstuff]

Prices are apparently flexible at some stores. A cashier bargained with me on the price of a purse until I agreed to buy it. It wasn't on sale, she was given the "go ahead" to negotiate prices with shoppers at her own discretion.

[wearyvoter]

It depends on where you live. I'm in a Big 10 university town, and the larger businesses are starting to feel it. The small businesses started feeling it last year. So when the economists announced yesterday that we've been in a recession for about a year, my reaction was "duh."

[JScott]

'And when a lunch of cold-cuts is offered, but the hosts don't eat any of nicely arranged turkey or cheese, claiming they're really not all that hungry,...' Hmmm wonder if any of those guests came with some plastic food storage bags to take some of that food home....that would be a smart thing to do.

[Liberalfrombirth]

The stock market crashed in Oct. 1929. 1933 was the worst year of the Depression. Our little journey is just beginning. It's very scary.

[deminmo]

And it (the Depression) lasted until the 40's. Once you
hit bottom, it takes a very long time to climb up.

[ChickenLips]

Haven't noticed a slowdown? You must not get out of the house much. Parking is much easier. I can actually find a spot near the 200 handicapped spaces in front of every store. ;-) I think I'm the only one without a handicapped license plate.

[NoMoFearNoMoHate]

eh, I haven't noticed any slowdown...

[drkazmd65]

Even the multi-level Internet marketing firms are getting concerned,.... Has anybody else here noticed the deluge of Amway/Quixtar TV advertisements?

When my wife & I joined up with Quixtar (disclaimer - we are still members but not actively growing our business) about 2 years ago - One of their big means of patting themselves on their backs was that they 'Didn't neet to waste money on advertisement - they were a word of mouth business".

Apparently the DeVos family fortunes have turned a bit - and now it is "OK" to advertise.

It's hard to justify to people to get into a pseudo-pyramid scheme when more than half the business is optional and 'luxury' items to sell. People cut that stuff out of the budget first when times get rougher.

[Village]

I went to the vet. Usually there are 6 girls behind the counter, which is impossible to reach. I have paid many times never getting any closer than arms length to the counter.

No one was there. No one. No car other than mine. 2 girls behind the counter. I saw open doors into examining rooms I had never seen before. I have been going there for 15 years.

I went to the electronics store. Same day, same thing. I don't know what to think.

[deminmo]

People like me who do work in retail, have either lost jobs
or had hours cut to the point of no money. In the past
retail was one of the easiest jobs to get. Not any more.

[dctackett]

I haven't noticed a slow down at all... but I don't go to any of those overpriced stores...

Actually, I've noticed more customers at cheaper fast food places where I live... the Del Taco by my house is more packed than ever...

And I don't notice any lack of customers at the Home Depot.

My wife does like this store, Anthopologie, but rarely gets anything there, I don't know if they'll make it, selling $200 "HAPPY HOLIDAYS" paper and string garlands... my wife just makes her own for a couple of bucks.

[RogerOThornhill]

Do you live in West Palm Beach, Beverly Hills or another "wealthy" area?
On Seattle's "Eastside" (near Microsoft, aka The Silicon Forest), we've gone into Home Depot where the employees vastly outnumber the customers, and the cashiers are cleared to "dicker" with customers and lower prices to get any sale...
I grew up in the rustbelt when it was dying and this feels the same; no money, no credit, no omph. Scary.
Home Depot and / or Lowes are likely to fold within months at this rate...

[hrhkat29]

i havent seen less people going to fast food places either...even my mall is still fairly crowded...i dont even live in a weathy area..i live in SoCal where everyone was hit by the housing crisis...maybe its all those people who made 400k selling their overpriced homes 2 years ago, and instead of going to expensive food places they now all have to go to fast food joints....dont worry their time will come when they have to eat noodles in a cup..

[Lilybart]

I get emails offering discounts every day, more calls looking for customers, more stores with For Rent signs as I walk home (NYC) delis putting balloons out front, discounts in the mail.....

drip drip drip distaster