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What the Federal Government Can Learn From Florida

Posted: 04/ 8/2012 2:31 pm

The headline numbers of 121,000 in March and 240,000 in February were well below the consensus expectations, which ran about 205,000. Private payrolls increased by 121,000, with the bulk coming from private services at 90,000.

Gains were strongest in business services (31,000), education and health (37,000), and leisure and hospitality (39,000), but gains in these sectors were below what had been observed in recent months. On the goods-producing side of the ledger, construction payrolls fell by 7,000.

Manufacturing payrolls, however, grew by 31,000 and, along with gains in leisure and hospitality, suggest that some underlying labor market strength in cyclical sectors remains in place.

The public sector shed 1,000 jobs, and recent trends there suggest that the persistent declines in public sector payrolls have subsided. The three-month average change in public sector payrolls is now 1,000, versus the -22,000 average monthly change recorded in 2011. Finally, net revisions to previous months added 4,000 jobs, continuing the pattern of upward revisions to the data, but at a slower rate.

EARNINGS GROWTH STAGNANT

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent, compared with an upwardly revised 0.3 percent in the previous month (initial estimate: 0.1 percent), and the y/y change now stands at 2.1 percent. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours, in line with expectations, while the February data were revised higher to 34.6 from 34.5. Aggregate hours worked increased at a 3.7 percent 3m/3m (saar) pace in March, compared with 4.1 percent in February and 3.4 percent in January. The payroll proxy for labor income (aggregate hours worked times average hourly earnings) rose at a 5.6 percent 3m/3m (saar) pace after rising 5.8 percent last month and 5.0 percent in January.

The household survey also took on a weak tone, with employment falling by 31,000. This is well below the three-month average of 415,000 and breaks eight consecutive months of household employment gains.

THE CLAIMS DROP BECAUSE CLAIMANTS DROP OFF

The unemployment rate fell to 8.2 percent (8.192 percent unrounded), reflecting a drop in the participation rate of one-tenth, to 63.8 percent. Overall, the report had an undeniably weak tone and will raise doubts about the strength of the labor market. Given that the report reflects only one month of data and some of the underlying cyclical sectors registered payroll gains, I do not view it as conclusively signaling a shift to a lower trend rate of employment growth.

THE BOTTOM LINE OF THE BOTTOM LINE

Although the unemployment rate went down to 8.2 percent, the number of jobs created was only 121,000. This is basically in line with population growth. The only reason the number of unemployment claims went down is because the overall labor force participation went down -- those hundreds of thousands who are no longer eligible for unemployment. This is what happens when you give people less incentive.

The president says we have tried 'on-your-own economics' but now we can see how 'government-run, high-tax, heavily-regulated, bureaucrats-pick-the-winners-and-losers
economics' destroys job growth.

The 121,000 new jobs are in line with what you would expect with GDP growth and income growth. As I have always said the prior job growth was not in line with the low GDP and income growth we were seeing. Our low GDP and income growth during this period should have given us job growth of 120,000-150,000 a month, rather than the anemic growth we had in February and March. What this says to me is the growth in jobs is a just bounce from too many layoffs during the recession beyond what the GDP at that point was indicating. The effect of the administration's policies are finally showing.

One month is not a trend, but we finally have a correlation between the GDP and Income growth. And on the bright side, we have job growth in the service industry that serves alcohol.

THE FLORIDA EXCEPTION

One state that stood apart from national trends was Florida. What they saw there was amazing, and it was the result of a government approach to economics that was 180 degrees from what the White House wants.

With the release of March's data, Florida has now had 11 consecutive months of job growth. Their unemployment is at a three-year low. These job growth trends are a result of Florida's reducing regulation, easing the tax burden on small businesses and delivering two consecutive balanced state budgets without tax increases.

This is the example we need in every state, and most especially in Washington, D.C. The parties must come together to create a positive business environment, with established and common sense rules, a reduction in bureaucratic induced burdens, and the removal of uncertainty and ambiguity that comes from arbitrary and radical policies.

By David Park, Chairman, Job Creators Alliance

David Park is Managing Partner at Austin Capital, LLC, a merchant bank that assists small companies with financial consulting, and is also Chairman of the Job Creators Alliance, a nonprofit comprised of current and former major business leaders who are committed to the defense and preservation of the free enterprise system.

 

Follow Job Creators Alliance on Twitter: www.twitter.com/JCAlliance

 
 
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joebaggadonuts
Civilization: Evolutionary pathway of choice.
01:14 PM on 04/22/2012
I stopped reading when I found this in the .pdf of the figures: "Many of the counties with the lowest unemployment rates were those with relatively high proportions of government employment."

So; who's kidding who?
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cdecisneros
my micro bio is empty because I went to the micro
11:19 AM on 04/10/2012
They created all those jobs for people who paint chicks.
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devondx
Totally De-regulate all RED states=JUSTICE..
02:13 AM on 04/09/2012
what higher taxes....?.... , what new regulations ....?

......same old GOP rhetoric ....
02:08 AM on 04/09/2012
How is 240,000 jobs created in February below expectations of 205,000? Looks like someone is just waiting for the smallest thing to harp on the President's policies(and this recovery is far from strong - we all agree on that). And the Florida mention is so strange. National unemployment is at the lowest in 3 years. Jobless claims lowest in 4 years. Positive job growth since Early '10.
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Bogstomper2
Secular conservative
01:47 AM on 04/09/2012
You should check the link that Park offers to support his notion of how "amazing" things are in Florida. Unemployment there is higher than for the nation overall and has been since April 2008. So how does that qualify it as a model for the rest of the country?

The answer is, it doesn't.

Remember, folks, everything you hear from a businessman like Park is just advertising. It's not factual, it's not real data, it's just an attempt to manipulate and persuade. The JCA is no more credible than a beer commercial.
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joebaggadonuts
Civilization: Evolutionary pathway of choice.
01:15 PM on 04/22/2012
And a lot less fun to watch than a beer commercial.
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Bogstomper2
Secular conservative
01:30 AM on 04/09/2012
'government-run, high-tax, heavily-regulated, bureaucrats-pick-the-winners-and-losers
economics'

Sorry, self-styled job creators, but your vision of free enterprise trashed our economy. Pretending that you're somehow victims of the government is despicable.

Here are the real problems we need to fix. First, we need to get rid of the corporation, since the primary purpose of that business structure is to allow corporate officers to claim responsibility for success while escaping any responsibility for failure. Limited liability is the same thing as limited responsibility, and that runs counter to traditional American conservative values.

Second, we need to make it clear that in our society you have a right to make a profit, but not if you harm others in the process and if others have to pay to fix the problems you created. That violates the very basic tenets of civilization.

Third, we need to restore some morals to American business. You people can't keep claiming exemption from morality just because you're out to make a profit. You can't keep lying to America. You can't keep corrupting our government. None of these things would be happening if you people had morals, or even a sense of patriotism.

Remember, business is here to serve the American people, not the other way around. And if business is no longer doing the job, we the people have a right to change things.
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Micheal Anderson
When the Rebels become the Tyrants
01:07 AM on 04/09/2012
The only thing the federal government can learn from Florida is how to not do things.
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menmykoko
Feudalism..the original Christian coalition.
11:52 PM on 04/08/2012
You lost me at "free enterprise" before i could even read it. Next!
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lcr999
scientist
11:31 PM on 04/08/2012
"stagnant earnings growth" refers to employees.
Meanwhile Corporate earnings are growing rapidly.

So whose fault is that?
mikiao
Empty my micro-bio is.
10:21 AM on 04/09/2012
I'm going to guess it's the government's fault. I'm not sure how or why...but I'm certain that, somehow, someway, the government is to blame.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Scott Leland
11:43 AM on 04/09/2012
Yes, you are right, the corporations have discovered how to make record profits with the minimum number of employees using "Human Resources" principles that have driven-wages-down as low as they can get away with:

http://www.flixya.com/blog/3201910/Beautiful-Butterflys
10:55 PM on 04/08/2012
I think it's hilarious that Rick Scott won't even make it out of the Republican Primary, as he's been a disaster for the State of Florida, and even Republicans know it. Still, he must have a few friends left at "Job Creators Alliance," that stealthy group of CEOs who have vowed not to hire until Obama is out of office. You know, real patriot-types who are moved into action by growing regulations that prohibit them from hiding their money overseas to avoid taxes. True American patriots.

Still, give Republicans credit for creating a formula that drives down unemployment. Have a Republican Governor who creates so few jobs that working-age people have to leave the state! Nice work, Job Creators Alliance!
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Hoosier451
10:24 PM on 04/08/2012
Is it a coincidence that, after this article was submitted, Rick Scott's approval rating dropped another 2%
09:47 PM on 04/08/2012
I spend a lot of time in Florida. It is the place to be when you are cold. There is a lot of money coming into Florida. This has nothing to do with their government. It has to do with an economy that is improving so folks can buy foreclosed homes at cellar prices or have that warm vacation. This money coming into Florida was made somewhere else. Florida is tourist money. Drive around the state and look at all the vacant strip malls and empty condos. The ruling government of Florida has done nothing to improve the enconomy other than to be lucky enough to rule a state that people want to visit. Even they cannot screw that up, or maybe they can given enough time.
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demisfine
Often correct, NEVER right.
08:34 PM on 04/08/2012
The success in FL may have a thing or two to do with President Obama's ability to get BP to pay to clean up the gulf.
Remember that small factoid?
09:56 PM on 04/08/2012
I tend to agree. I know of a number of small business owners that received BP money. Most of them spent it to expand their business. I also know many individuals that filed claims because they claimed the spill affected their wages. They spent the money remodeling or bought cars. This article is another right wing puff piece.
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meglon978
Beware of gifts bearing Greeks.
05:26 PM on 04/08/2012
The stats for Florida would be nice, if you didn't cherry pick which employment survey to use. CES is used for employment postings, which shows 3 months of loses in the past 11 (4 in the past 12). By choosing to use the CPS, which no one else does, you can pad job growth by counting volunteer work and seasonal farm help.

Good job on not really telling the truth just to try to get people to agree with you.
04:55 PM on 04/08/2012
I would highly advise those who read this article to read between the lines. It starts with the title of the article. For those who know Rick Scott and his managerial skills, this entire article smells. For one, how much job growth? Which sectors showed the growth?

Here's some research for all - who is the job creators alliance? I even saved everyone the trouble and will provide a link:

http://helition.com/2011/12/11/the-truth-about-the-job-creators-alliance/

Still want to believe this article?