Like Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction, North Korea is a little unbalanced and relentless. Obama's strategy of ignoring the country has failed.
The first thing to know about the apparently successful nuclear test is this: Don't Panic. Though the country seems to have corrected the mistakes that led to the failure of its October 2006 test (a "fizzle" that exploded at about 1 kiloton, far lower than the intended yield), all available evidence indicates that North Korea is still years away from a deliverable nuclear weapon.
Estimates of the test range from 4 to 20 kilotons (the Nagasaki bomb was about 15 kilotons). North Korea will have to perfect this device through additional tests, reducing its size so that it can be fashioned into a bomb that an airplane could carry. Further tests would be needed to shrink it down so it could be carried by a missile. There would have to be other, highly-observable missile tests to develop the long-range missiles that could carry the warhead and that could develop a re-entry vehicle that could survive the stresses and high temperatures of launch and re-entry into the atmosphere.
Still, the test is a dangerous development. It is likely the result of three factors.
First, internal politics--the maneuvering of various factions over who will succeed the ailing leader, Kim Jong Il. This could be an effort to shore up support with the military.
Second, it is part of North Korea's "India strategy," that is, test nuclear weapons (as India did in 1998), wait out the global condemnation, and eventually win acceptance from world leaders, like the US.
Third, this represents President Obama's first foreign policy failure. Obama followed the advice of staff who recommended ignoring North Korea. The argument was that North Korea had no place to go and would eventually come back to negotiations. This was a strategy endorsed by many former Bush officials. There was nothing like the diplomatic approaches that Obama has started with Iran--and North Korea noticed.
Obama officials even put preconditions on renewing negotiations, reportedly blocking Special Envoy Stephen Bosworth from going to North Korea until that country promised not to conduct another missile test. Officials also backed the tough line taken by South Korea, including curtailing fuel shipments to the north. Worse, some officials seem to have concluded that North Korea's program cannot be stopped, that the best we can do is "manage" the problem.
But North Korea will not be ignored. Or managed. Or coerced into compliance or collapse. These approaches were tried in the Bush administration. They failed. They only gave Pyongyang time to increase the threat of its nuclear and missile programs and export of sensitive technologies.
It is time to shift gears. We need a coordinated effort with China that combines pressure with incentives. Not just promises to talk, but a clear description of what North Korea could gain from stopping and then rolling back its program, coupled with sustained engagement that carries through on the commitments we make and gives the North Korean government the attention it thinks it deserves--however repugnant that may be.
BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | North Korea claims nuclear test
North Korean Missile Test a Growing Possibility - washingtonpost.com
Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, sat on the board of a company which three years ago sold two light water nuclear reactors to North Korea - a country he now regards as part of the "axis of evil" and which has been targeted for regime change by Washington because of its efforts to build nuclear weapons. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/may/09/nuclear.northkorea
That being said additional missle tests, a border skirmish, or a naval incident are all possible. None of thse will result in a major conventional, or nuclear exchange.
China is the only country that can effect change there, and it does not seem to be in their near term interest to do much. I expect little to change.
The real worry is that NK will get better with their nuke technology and sell a reliable weapon to someone who is suicidal. This maybe something the USA and her allies can do something about.
Maybe not the US but someone like Japan and S. Korea should impose trade sanctions against China unless they reign N. Korea in.
it is harder to make a car with a key to start then to make wmd
it is harder to make a movie with sound then wmd
a nuclear warhead is 65 year old technology
it is harder to make a personal computer then nuclear bomb
it is harder to make a car with automatic transmission then a nuclear bomb
there is no way to stop any country that wants a nuclear weapon or wmd to stop them.
Fact is, it seems the lesson the North Korean regime learned from our invasion of Iraq was that nuclear states don't get attacked. Nuclear deterrence works because no nation can afford to receive even one nuclear strike, the US included. The possession of nuclear weapons by both India and Pakistan has most probably prevented conflict. Neither adversary can afford a crisis that may spin out of control.
So we accept North Korea having the bomb and missile technology. Just like India, Israel, China, France etc.
South Korea, Japan and Australia may be pressured to nuclearize their deterrence options as as well. This is the New World Order on the Pacific rim and we all should learn to live with it.
I'm almost afraid to ask...I must admit.
What was done to stop North Korea, Nothing.
What was done to stop Iran, Nothing
How many Americans have been killed in Iraq, 3,500, how many hurt over 35,000.
Who sat back and did not use his precious political capital to push an energy policy.
Who presided over the creation of huge deficits, deregulation while the banks and investment people robbed everyone blind?
Who had control over the House and Senate for 6 years and the White House for 8.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but not facts.