Outmaneuvering Iran

Obama knew all along that Iran had a secret uranium factory. He may be more of a master strategist than his foes--and even his friends--have realized.

The key to understanding today's announcement on Iran is this: President Obama knew about the secret Iranian facility nine months ago. Before he began his strategy of engagement, he knew Iran was lying about its program. When he extended his hand in friendship, he knew Iran had built a secret factory to enrich uranium. Before he offered direct talks, he knew Iran was hiding a nuclear weapons breakout capability.

Each move was denounced as "weak" and "naïve" by the right. That talk looks foolish today. These were the moves of chess master, carefully positioning pieces on the board, laying a trap, and springing it at the opportune moment.

We now know that Obama was not acting on impulse, or philosophy or general principles, but on deep strategy. He knew better than his critics that Ahmadinejad could not be trusted. He just had a better plan for how to deal with him.

Obama is now well positioned to unite world leaders in a long-term strategy to back Iran away from nuclear weapons. While some nations mistrusted the previous administration--fearing a repeat of the Iraq War--they have more confidence in Obama. They don't believe he will use military force, except as a last resort.

Meanwhile, Obama's missile defense decision--a move that puts more military assets in position more quickly against the Iranian missiles--not only increases the pressure on Iran but allows Russia to move closer to the U.S. position without appearing to be buckling to America.

Obama's open hand also undercut Ahmadinejad at home. Previously, he was able to use the nuclear program as a nationalist rallying cry, posing as the warrior president defending the nation against Western attack. He kept the reform movement down and IAEA inspectors out. Obama's strategy of engagement has foiled Ahmadinejad, allowing the forces of reform to surge in Iran. Without the threat of a US attack, Iranian opposition leaders have more freedom of movement and are less vulnerable to the government claims that they are tools of US imperialism.

Internationally, Obama is restoring American credibility. By pushing the military option with Iran to the back of the table, he increases support for sanctions. By proposing a balanced, comprehensive nuclear policy strategy, backed unanimously at the United Nations Security Council this week, he increases support for tough measures against those that cheat on their treaty obligations.

Obama has now backed Iran into a corner. The solution will not be easy or quick, however. A great deal depends on getting Russia and China to agree to tougher sanctions. There are options that Europe and the US could employ without them, but their agreement to UN sanctions would greatly increase the financial and diplomatic pressure on Iran. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, speaking with Obama and French President Sarkozy this morning, laid down a December deadline for sanctions.

The obvious solution is for Iran to agree to intrusive inspections. Let the IAEA inspectors into all sites; give them access to all records; give them access to all scientists. If possible, we want a suspension of the program--both construction and operations.

All of this is now more likely than at any time in the past few years. We will know soon, within the next few months, if Obama's sophisticated, comprehensive approach is working.
For now, we have a new appreciation of Obama, the strategist.

Follow Joe Cirincione on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Cirincione

Comments

[mrjames1]

Ahh, international chess matching our President and Iran, with global economic and war issues at stake. Let's see how first how the US has learned from some recent 'chess' matches.

The modern Latvian Gambit (used to be 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 f5!?) where now banks overlend, overextend, and the (Latvian)economy takes a huge hit, but doesn't roll the printing presses. Learn anything? nope - Bush and Obama bail out the banks and the presses are Rolling. Or the modern Icelandic Gambit - where bankers wreck the economy, assisted by lawyers, and then turn private losses public. Nothing learned there either, as the US taxpayer is taking on the banks debt here as well.

Or the US-Vietnam chess match, where pawns were sent across the board/world to fight pawns waiting to defend- always a losing strategy. Same with USSR-Afghan. Wild offensive attacks, and those with poor planning, are doomed to fail.

International chess is a dangerous game and now we're 'out of book' with a new president, Iran, and another 'chess match'. I will let others evaluate the ongoing game so far, but President Obama better become a GM in a hurry, because you never know if Ahmedinejad is B Fischer (think about it). Our Prayers and best wishes to Obama

[WarSkeptic]

You and me saw a very different event at the G20

I saw Obama completely make a fool of himself by declaring that he had discovered something that had already been disclosed and then demanding inspections which had already been granted
He even dug the whole deeper by claiming he had known about the new plant for years, predadting the NIE that said Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program. In essence, Obama said that the CIA agrees with Iran that the site is for energy use only

[TJMil]

I think its helpful when wondering whether someone is being outmanuevered to look at it from their perspective. If I am an Iranian leader I would feel pretty good right now. Russia has provided me with the s-300 defense system and has gotten Obama to remove radar in Poland. Obama is plainly scared shitless at Russia. Once my Russian supplied air defenses are in place Israel cannot attack me. Now right on time Obama has agreed to negotiations which I can drag out for about 60-90 days till my defenses are set. Then I can thumb my nose at Israel because I know for certain Obama will never attack me. Of course Russia and China may or may not vote for sanctions against me but either way it does not matter. I can count on everyone, including Europe to cheat on the sanctions, except for Sarkozy who won't be there forever. One downside is that Russia and China are going to want some tribute for all that they have done but I'm sure an arrangement can be made. Might have to run interference on Global warming or shut down the strait for a day or two when China wants to pull the economic plug on the US. Note to self: start looking for another Great Satan.

[MosheDayanHero]

stark raving nonsense.

[BiBiJan]

Mr Cirincione:

Would you please clarify a couple of issues.

a) How did Obama know all along, and his predecessor didn't?

b) How will your reasoning allow a distinction between incremental disgorging of information by Iran being a step towards full transparency worthy of praise on the one hand, and self incrimination worthy of sanctions and war on the other?

[MosheDayanHero]

Majority of the world simply doesn't trust current Iranian rulers with a nuke. Fair or unfair.
And letting Ahamadinejad loose onto the world stage compounds this tenfold.
It is incomprehensible that Supreme Leader thinks Ahmadinejad's shrill rants somehow helps Iranian cause.

[MosheDayanHero]

It is astonishing to be that people who rule Iran would allow Ahmadinejad to freak out in front of the whole world to see. It simply demonstrates how detached from reality the Supreme Leader really is.
Not surprising for a man who refuses to meet with non-Muslims.

[BiBiJan]

Not surprising for a man who refuses to meet with non-Muslims?

Really? Had no idea Putin was a Moslem!

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSDAH74470120071017?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true

[MosheDayanHero]

My point stands Supreme Leader does not meet with non-Muslims.

Putin was a one- time thing becuase of overwhelming importance of Russia to Iranian security.

Supremo probably had his attendants clean and re sanctify his place repeatedly after that.

[RandomMandarin]

Well, as you may know, the real supreme leaders in Iran are a cadre of elderly ayatollahs who can overrule the Iranian president whenever they want. They more or less choose the president, and if you think Ahmadinejad is out of touch with reality, the mullahs are probably double. So in a sense, Obama is not really playing chess against Ahmadinejad, but against his cloistered bosses, who, like World War 1 generals, are too far from the action to make sensible decisions, but whom none dare disobey. Whatever idiocy they command, their people have to try to carry out.

[MosheDayanHero]

Thats' exactly what I was talking about an earlier point. Ahamd is nothing but a flunky.
The problem is that Supremo, who doesn't meet with non-Muslims, has little idea of what goes on in the outside world. And anyone who exists in a closed ended system is incapable of rational decisions. The info science adage still stands--g.bage in, .gbage out.

[S1m0n]

Iraq tried the 'permit intrusive inspections' route, and all that happened is that the US kept moving the goalposts while declaring that Iraq was lying. In fact, american officials declared - with a straight face -that the fact that that the inspectors couldn't find any WMDs was proof positive that Iraq had WMDs that it was hiding.

But guess what? Iraq was right all along, and the US was full of you know what.

Given that this is now the third iteration of stiffened inspections protocols we're insisting iran submit to, there is nothing to indicate that Iran will be treated any differently from the way Iraq qas treated. It's the identical pattern.

[bentunder]

Of course, Saddam Hussein, the brutal dictator responsible for the deaths of millions, was the reasonable one.

You must also be correct that the Iranian regime which is raping, torturing, and killing untold numbers of its own citizens, denies the Holocaust, and threatens to wipe a neighbor off the map is the reasonable one now.

America is always morally wrong and has no legitimate excuse for taking a stand against any regime, no matter how morally repugnant.

[S1m0n]

in this context, Saddam Hussein was the man who was telling the truth. George Bush was the man who was not telling the truth. These facts are well supported by the public record; any value judgement you find in my post is one you that have read into it. I made no such claim.

[MosheDayanHero]

it is a intellectually dishonest trick to attempt to create an analogy between two vastly different situations to defend one;'s bias.

[S1m0n]

Iran's not all that cornered, because thus far in this debate, there remains no indication that Iran's reactors and research are anything but legit. Iran is right on the facts and right on the law, which is why the US and Israel are pounding so much on the table.

[MosheDayanHero]

In domestic politic. to talk about women and children usually means a corporate sell-out is in the works. Same thing for Ahmadinejad supporters--anyone who brings up Israel: look for an attempt to blame others fro Iran's transgressions.

[cybexg]

Each move was denounced as "weak" and "naïve" by the right. That talk looks foolish today. These were the moves of chess master, carefully positioning pieces on the board, laying a trap, and springing it at the opportune moment.

No....The Right have a very short memory and attention span....That's how they are able to live with themselves.

[bentunder]

How are the Iranians trapped? What are they doing differently now?

They have alliances with China and Venezuela, probably still Russia to a significant extent. If their goal is to acquire a nuclear weapon, which only the naive would dispute at this point, what has happened to prevent them from being successful?

[dmbraddy]

I laughed out loud at reports that Russian leaders were "shocked" to learn of Iran's "secret" nuclear facility. Sure they were. President Obama revises the missile defense against possible attack from Iran on eastern Europe to a cheaper, more effective, more rapidly deployable one, less threatening to Russia and mere days later the blockbuster news about the secret facility breaks and President Medvedev et al exclaim dismay and disapproval. Just coincidence? Not a bit of it.

Iran has been played by President Obama, big time. President Ahmadinejad is making purring sounds. The secret facility will be inspected and talks with Iranian nuclear scientists will determine what the real abilities and objectives of Iran's nuclear program are.

My guess is that Ahmadinejad has been bluffing the same way Sadam Hussein did about having WMD's. While Ahmadinejad has been claiming Iran's nuclear ambitions are limited to producing energy, his real message to the world of Islam has been, look at us, we can develop nuclear weapons and the rest of the world is powerless to stop us. They do not have nuclear weapon capability and probably never were planning to develop it, unless, of course, united resistance from world powers, east and west, failed to materialize. Well, it has, and we have President Obama to thank for it.

[Zen0469]

For me, it is good to see _Ahma/ dinejad revealed for the _lying _cheat that he has always been; and also to see Pres. _Obama as the prudent chess master in action.

What a striking, positive and welcome change from _Bush & _Cheney, the Twin _Buffoons.

[PaxEterna]

This piece is ridiculous.

There is nothing Obama can say or do- short of bombing Iran - that will stop Iran from doing what it wants.

It's entirely fatuous to think that all these words amount to anything.

It's a shell game. say the tough thing, but do nothing.

Further, the demographics are on Iran's side, not ours = or, more importantly, Israel's.

Meanwhile we could use some nation-building right here in the USA, only guess what? We have no money to help ourselves.

[MosheDayanHero]

"The demographics are on Iran's side,"
Ah the Great Hope...
The infamous world-conquest- by-over-population canard. Worked real well for Somalia.....
After having failed to develop via hard work and scientific development.....

[bacaja]

If you do not have nuclear weapons you can be invaded by any powerful nation and
your sovereignty destroyed and your resources stolen. Did the Bush doctrine not
make this abundantly clear.

[MosheDayanHero]

OK,
I suspect, Iran would have better PR campaign with that argument. Instead of the current shameless lying campaign denying nuke development.

[kingsbridge77]

Glenn Greenwald warns the media: be skeptical about accusations against Iran, for which there is "no evidence:" http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/09/26/iran/index.html

[AnotherMcIntosh]

Thanks for pointing out Greenwald post. It's a good one.

Greenwald even points out that: "The Chinese, one administration official said, were more skeptical, and said they wanted to look at the intelligence, and to see what international inspectors said when they investigated."

The title of the post is certainly appropriate: Should any Iraq lessons be applied to Iran?

[tommycarr]

This opinion piece misses one major fact. Admitedly, diplomacy will be a protracted process and all the while Iran will be ploughing ahead with their program. There is no way in H*** that Isreal will allow Iran to attain nuclear status. I hope that our President is a master strategist, but to me, he looks like the master of appeasement.