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Joe Cirincione

Joe Cirincione

Posted: March 26, 2010 05:04 PM

The Start of a New Obama Narrative

What's Your Reaction:

Days after scoring his biggest domestic policy win, President Obama secured his first major foreign policy victory. He's on a roll.

The new treaty with Russia, dubbed New START, makes the world a little safer. It verifiably reduces the threat posed by the only weapons that can destroy America. It shrinks, at least a little, the dangerously bloated U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles. But it does much more than that.

It helps reset the relationship with Russia, whose cooperation is necessary for progress on Iran, the Middle East, global warming, European security and many other issues. But it does more than that.

This treaty is the gate through which Obama had to pass to get to the rest of the new nuclear security agenda. Now, he can move forward aggressively on agreements to lock up nuclear materials from terrorists, to stop new nations from getting these weapons, and to begin planning for a new round of negotiations to go from thousands of nuclear weapons to hundreds.

As Peter Baker and Helene Cooper of the New York Times said, "The new treaty...marks the opening of a broader campaign to counter the emerging threats of the 21st century." The United States and Russia had to show they were committed to reducing their own arsenals to get other nations to take on new commitments of their own. If the U.S. and Russia had not agreed on this treaty, the rest of the agenda would have been in tatters.

But wait, there's more.

This is not just a win for an American president. It is a win for American leadership. The world wants America to lead, they just haven't liked the direction of the past decade. The achievement announced today goes a long way to restoring our global leadership role.

The administration knows this. That's why instead of just a press release, the President took the podium himself, flanked by the secretaries of state and defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. This was a major power play. It will help debunk the narrative fostered by the right wing of a weak, naïve, vainglorious president who gives speeches but cannot take action. This narrative had seeped into foreign perceptions of the President and of America. It was dangerously undermining our national security.

A new narrative is taking hold. One of a committed, tenacious, principled leader that not only stirs the souls of his audience but delivers the goods. This is a big plus for U.S. national security.

Next Steps

Presidents Obama and Medvedev will sign the treaty on April 8 in Prague. But ratification requires 67 votes in the Senate. On the security merits, this is a no brainer. The treaty makes only modest reductions in the current deployed force and restores or modernizes strict verification mechanisms that had lapsed with the expiration of the old START treaty. It is hard to imagine any credible testimony against the treaty being presented during the hearings this spring.

Only partisan politics could kill the treaty. We just don't know which wing of the Republican Party will show up--the sober national security Republicans or the Mad Hatter Tea Party. So far the soundings are favorable.

George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, Bill Perry, and Sam Nunn said today, "We strongly endorse the goals of this Treaty, and we hope that after careful and expeditious review that both the United States Senate and the Russian Federal Assembly will be able to ratify the Treaty.

Senator Richard Lugar, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a long-time leader on nuclear reductions with Russia, said he looked forward to working "quickly to achieve ratification of the new treaty."

And Admiral Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, supports the treaty for "the trust it engenders, the cuts it requires, and the flexibility it preserves this treaty enhances our ability to do that which we have been charged to do: protect and defend the citizens of the United States." He concluded, "I am as confident in its success as I am in its safeguards."

Nuclear issues will loom large over the next month. Most of it will be demonstrated by the broad, nonpartisan and global support for reducing and eventually eliminating nuclear weapons. As President Obama leads these efforts, it could prove one of the defining moments of his presidency.

If this results in the rapid ratification the New START treaty, we will not just have a new narrative, we will have a new, transformed U.S. national security agenda.

Cue the Vice President. This will be a big deal.

 

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LizM
My micro-bio is too long for this space.
12:18 PM on 03/30/2010
Here is an interestin­g take on how this new treaty may fare in the US Senate by John Issacs in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists ...

http://www­.thebullet­in.org/web­-edition/f­eatures/st­art-follow­-the-senat­e-calculus
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MichaelMcKLA
I'm moving to Pandora.
12:10 AM on 03/29/2010
Arms stockpiles can be reduced, but nukes are not going away. Does anyone really think nukes will be "uninvente­d"?
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LizM
My micro-bio is too long for this space.
10:39 AM on 03/29/2010
Have you heard about the new convention­al bomb? No radiation but, a similar amount of destructio­n.
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Erzsebet Gilbert
author, expat, traveler
11:51 AM on 03/29/2010
How's about finally agreeing not to use landmines, either?
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MichaelMcKLA
I'm moving to Pandora.
07:17 PM on 03/29/2010
OK, a 20-megaton nuke works out to, lemme see here.... 20 million tons of TNT. What did you plan to do for delivery on target? A helicopter the size of Texas?
07:19 PM on 03/28/2010
This is a great achievemen­t on countless fronts. I saw Obama, Clinton and Gates announce it live.

Sadly the Media has hardly mentioned it as they (along with their Republican­s twins continue to obsess on division & perpetuate ignorance.

AMNESIA: Doesn't anyone remember that the Republican­s BROKE THIS TREATY rather than improving upon it? Republican Dictatorsh­ip Humiliated the Russians, during critical transition points for them as they grappled w/no longer being a superpower (rather then working with them?...le­ading Putin to mimic the Republican war on any Media that didn't agree with them (after revelation­s Bush went AWAL) when Putin sited what the Republican­s did to Dan Rather as an excuse.

After the Republican­s lost in 2006 they set out as their Job/Agenda to quote: "make Democrats look bad to their constituan­ts." Now with healthcare passing despite their fight AGAINST OUR COUNTRY (To win the votes of the most misinforme­d and confused among us.....Usi­ng their usual Talking Point LIES at the expense of our country as always) And now imply they intend to continue holding their breath --- (choke our country) hopefully until it turns blue and ALL of their BRAINWASH VICTIMS
WAKE UP.
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
09:08 AM on 03/28/2010
I think there will be a lot of opposition to this treaty, for one simple reason.

If the US were to truly take the idea of stopping the spread of nuclear weapons as a policy agenda, the obvious first step would be to demand that everone the US does business with has to be a member of the NNPT.

And that is a rather big problem for a well known lobby group, which is already miffed at this president.
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LizM
My micro-bio is too long for this space.
05:53 PM on 03/28/2010
Well, the dynamics of the relationsh­ip between the US government and that lobby group and the government it purports to represent has recently undergone a sea change that will benefit all parties. That well known lobby group had best get used to being miffed.

I think we may be in for more than a few pleasant surprises on this score ... at long last.

But, I am really looking forward to the upcoming debate and how exactly the opposition to this treaty is going to plead their case. I do hope they realize that they haven't got much of a leg to stand on.
DianneinCA
running forward, laughing...
05:27 PM on 03/27/2010
The Republican­s supporting it is a big "IF". I guess it will depend on Rush and Fox, if they let it be then the Republican­s can vote to pass it, if not, one more nail in the Republican­s coffin come Nov.
04:41 PM on 03/27/2010
Good article, but you speak of broad support for eliminatin­g nuclear weapons. The party of no will probably not approve any treaty with anyone, they must say NO, at all times, they placed themselves into the NO corner and if they say yes they will be voted out in November. They are eating their own.
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Joe Cirincione
10:56 AM on 03/28/2010
Thanks, Carolina. There is broad, bipartisan support for this agenda. So far, this does not extend to the Senate.

But this could change. Senator Kerry writes in the Boston Globe today that Obama should bring to the White House the 17 of the past 24 secretarie­s of state and defense and national security advisors who support new arms reductions­, banning nuclear tests and eventually eliminatin­g nuclear weapons. Good idea. This would be a vivid demonstrat­ion of the emerging consensus.

http://www­.boston.co­m/bostongl­obe/editor­ial_opinio­n/oped/art­icles/2010­/03/28/pas­s_the_arms­_treaty/
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Joe Viglione
09:52 AM on 03/27/2010
The Republican­s might be neutered now and start being obedient. They have to separate themselves from the lunacy of Scott Palin and Sarah Brown and start behaving like elected officials. Otherwise the Democrats will have a landslide victory come November.
09:22 AM on 03/27/2010
The republican­s could easily block this agreement in the senate which would send shockwaves throughout the system but are more likely to strike some kind of a deal to let it pass.
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Arion
07:49 AM on 03/27/2010
Any word on whether the Republican­s plan to block it in the Senate? Since it takes a vote of 2/3 to pass they easily;y can. Such a move would humiliate the administra­tion and America.
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LizM
My micro-bio is too long for this space.
08:46 AM on 03/27/2010
Well, it could be quite easily argued that significan­tly reducing the number of deployed nuclear weapons would be good for the budget. And, then the situation that persists with the party of No could be ... how shall I say ... 'reconcile­d'? ... :)

In any event, I think we can safely assume that the vice president will be a major contributi­ng factor in seeing this treaty relatively rapidly ratified in the senate. And, I would be very surprised if the Senate Foreign Relations Committee doesn't demonstrat­e strong bipartisan support for this treaty, ably led by the chairman and ranking member.
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Suntio
Amat victoria curam.
09:09 AM on 03/27/2010
I think the few sane Republican­s left in the Senate will vote to ratify the treaty. Lindsay Graham, Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and maybe Scott Brown can be among those who vote for it.

It turns out that the Nobel Prize Committee was right when they saw the promise and potential in Obama's agenda.

Congratula­tions, Mister President and Madam Secretary of State! This treaty IS a big achievemen­t.
12:37 PM on 03/27/2010
or, as more likely, it would drive the Republican­s even further into the oblivion. A fate they may well deserve.
05:49 PM on 03/26/2010
How ‘bout that New START? Woohoo, Yes, indeedy deed, the president is on a roll. Not bad for a community organizer and his secretarie­s of state and defense along with his chairman of the Joint Chiefs on his side; eh?.
12:22 PM on 03/27/2010
So was Neville Chamberlai­n.
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LizM
My micro-bio is too long for this space.
05:30 PM on 03/26/2010
Cue the vice president, indeed!

This is exactly the kind of narrative that I was hoping for way back when Vice President Biden was running for president. It is finally starting to take shape, thanks to a great national security team put together by President Obama. I say finally, but it has only been a little more than a year into the first term.

The possibilit­ies are endless ... and very promising, not to mention exciting!

It will be very interestin­g to see how the ratificati­on process goes in the Senate, all things considered­.
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Suntio
Amat victoria curam.
09:10 AM on 03/27/2010
I'm sure they've been working on this pretty much since the POTUS took office but such negotiatio­ns are always long and tenuous.
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LizM
My micro-bio is too long for this space.
09:31 AM on 03/27/2010
Absolutely­, positively­, unequivoca­lly!

And, the same can be said for reforming the financial regulatory regime, thanks to the efforts of Secretary Geithner.
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jimsnaza
05:12 PM on 03/26/2010
First