Poll Shows Rep. Carolyn Maloney Leading Potential Senate Matchup in NY

Interesting news out of NY: A Quinnipiac poll released today looking forward to a possible matchup for the 2010 Democratic Primary for US Senator from NY, shows US Rep. Carolyn Maloney ahead of incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and challenger Jonathan Tasini.

It is pretty extraordinary to show an incumbent Senator losing a primary to an opponent who hasn't begun to campaign. Just as significant as the head-to-head poll, despite a well-publicized six-month effort by Gillibrand to sway New York voters, her favorable numbers have not moved.

Looking at these poll numbers, I guess now we know why Kirsten Gillibrand is doing everything she can to clear the field of all potential challengers a year before the primary. Today's poll is the 2nd in a row in which Carolyn Maloney has come out on top and the third overall showing Kirsten Gillibrand trailing a potential challenger who hasn't begun to campaign.

If there's anything that's becoming clearer, despite the forces behind Kirsten Gillibrand working to push out other candidates from this democratic primary, it's that New Yorkers agree that there are stronger candidates out there, and NY voters deserve a choice about who will be their next senator.

Even more telling is the fact that, though more than half of those polled said they favored one of the three choices, large chunks of NY Democrats remain undecided. If past New York elections are any indicator, New Yorkers are closer to Carolyn Maloney ideologically on key Democratic issues like marriage equality, getting guns off the streets, and on women's issues. That's what this race is about, not endorsements. It's about who will stand up and fight for the voters of New York on the issues that matter.

Though she has not said she will run, I hope Congresswoman Maloney does decide to enter the race. Not only would she win the nomination next year, but as the poll shows, she would defeat likely GOP nominee Rep Peter King. The Republicans are not going to pull any punches during the general election campaign next year, and New Yorkers need someone who will stand up for them on the issues, not change their positions for political expediency.

Poll details:

Carolyn Maloney: 27%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 23%
Jonathan Tasini: 4%

-Kirsten Gillibrand's favorable ratings remain virtually unchanged since January 2009 despite a six month effort by Senator Gillibrand and her campaign.

UPDATE: Full disclosure, as many of you know, I have been publicly supportive of Carolyn Maloney beyond this one post and I have discussed her potential candidacy with her personally. If she runs - which I hope she does since she'd be a great Senator - I'd be honored to work on her campaign.

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Comments

[Beth Borzone - Huffpost Blogger]

The Dems are in a bind because they have this energized progressive base that helped get Obama into office, but is now being abandoned as the Dems take a more conservative approach, and it's starting to backfire. The Dems are starting to look like a party that's bailing out big corporations, but not helping the working people. If they do not deliver a single payer healthcare system or a very strong public option, they will lose Congress in the next election. They fear the lobbyists, but they should fear the voters more. Unfortunately, Senator Schumer, who is taking a lot of time and trouble to mentor Sen. Gillibrand is now out of touch with his own constituency. Carolyn Maloney not only supports a strong public option, she is one of the few who has had the courage to come out in support of expanded Medicare for All (H.R. 676). She will run and she will win, embarrassing all the NY Democratic elite power structure. They know this. That's why they are pressuring her not to run. Go for it, Maloney! The people need you!

[GhostofAtwater]

Tobacco and Money - Senate For Sale 2010

Lies, Dam Lies and Campaign Bio's:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/10/opinion/10observer.html

[GhostofAtwater]

Guns. Tobbacco and Money - Senator For Sale 2010
"After initially agreeing to be interviewed by The New York Times, the senator canceled through her spokesman, Matt Canter, who said that focusing on Philip Morris would not reflect the range of her work ..."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/27/nyregion/27gillibrand.html?_r=1

Gillibrand’s Past as Defender of Big Tobacco
http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/27/gillibrands-past-as-defender-of-big-tobacco/
"Now in the Senate seat formerly held by Hillary Rodham Clinton, Kirsten E. Gillibrand plays down her work as a lawyer representing Philip Morris, saying she was a junior associate with little control over the cases she was handed and limited involvement in defending the tobacco maker."
But a review of thousands of documents and interviews with dozens of lawyers and industry experts indicate that Ms. Gillibrand was involved in some of the most sensitive matters related to the defense of the tobacco giant as it confronted pivotal legal battles beginning in the mid-1990s.
And more....the "smoking gun"
Ms. Gillibrand’s work for Philip Morris came during a pivotal period of mounting criticism and intensified legal scrutiny of the tobacco industry.
She tries to play down her role and suggests that she had no choice. In truth, she had plenty of choice.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/10/opinion/10observer.html

[ringmaster]

What do you expect, when the governor picked the worst posable Dem.

[glorialovelace]

The worst possible Dem would have been Caroline Kennedy, with Carolyn McCarthy as a runner up.

[glorialovelace]

"UPDATE: Full disclosure, as many of you know, I have been publicly supportive of Carolyn Maloney beyond this one post and I have discussed her potential candidacy with her personally. If she runs - which I hope she does since she'd be a great Senator - I'd be honored to work on her campaign."

Your disclaimer is much much too coy. This is more to the point:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/08/maloney_close_to_hiring_trippi.html

Note that one of the commenters -- a Congressional Quarterly subscriber -- writes: "McCarthy, isn't running, but Maloney still plans too. I keep getting the two mixed up."

[Busbydav]

Nice catch! This blog is just a PR commercial in advance of her announcement on the 4th

[glorialovelace]

"It is pretty extraordinary to show an incumbent Senator losing a primary to an opponent who hasn't begun to campaign. "

It's not really.

I'd be willing to be serious money that many -- if not most -- of the people polled by Quinnipaic ( which is a Connecticut outfit) are confusing Carolyn Maloney with Carolyn McCarthy. Even seasoned political experts have been doing that.

In our soap-opera politics, McCarthy's personal tragedy has given her (and apparently those with similar names) considerable political traction -- unfortunately.

More people have heard of McCarthy than Maloney -- that's for sure.

[flyribbon]

Would someone explain why Carolyn Maloney is wonderful and Kirsten Gillibrand is the devil incarnate?

[RofWH]

The explanation is simple: Patterson.

[glorialovelace]

If that's the reason, it's not a very smart one.

Aside from Paterson (note spelling, please) Gillibrand is also the choice of the White House, the Clintons, Schumer, NARAL, Emily's List, the coalition of women in the Senate -- the list of her supporters is endless.

Literally, there is nobody left to endorse Carolyn Whats-her-name

[Squaker]

I have no idea who Maloney is
But Gillibrand is a corporate shill

She literally started her career as a lawyer for phillip morris. And this was back when they were still trying to deny smoking caused cancer
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/27/nyregion/27gillibrand.html?_r=1

That is not qualification to run for office as a democrat. Get her out of there and put someone who hasn't been paid to lie for a corporation in her place.

[GhiaccioPronto]

Well we know Maloney has Joe Trippi, Upper East Side Sugar Plantation owners, and Tarp fans behind her. Plus she is not a NY born Yankee carpetbagger like she said about Gillibrand, but a natural born North Carolinian, wait ..um what state is new york in again?

[panamajohnny]

Just remember that Rep. Maloney voted For authority to invade Iraq back then.

[hype9857]

Yes, Maloney hasn't campaigned at all, but neither has Gillibrand. Give her a fair chance.

[jcwtts1]

While I agree that she needs a fair chance, she has campaigned. She has done nothing but campaign and people are still wary of her.

[aquart]

Gillibrand has been making an effort to sway New Yorkers? When? How? Not where I can see her, she hasn't. But I did write her, Obama, and Schumer my absolute assurance that any attempt to stop a primary for her seat will result in my leaving the Senate slot blank. I won't vote Republican, but if Gillibrand doesn't need the votes of New Yorkers in a primary, then she doesn't need the votes of New Yorkers in the general.

The attempt to foist her on us as a done deal is disgusting. Maloney is looking delightful to me now.

[jcwtts1]

Uhhhh, she came out for gay marriage last week, has 100% rating as a liberal in her voting in the senate, has modified several of her positions and has written at least two blogs on the Huffington Post in the last month. She is attempting to work it out but people are pissed at the way it was handled. My worry, and it has always been my worry is that by not picking someone with the bank to run a NYC campaign what we have done is created a 200 million dollar sink hole to hold a seat that should be ours by default. And with IL, CA, FL, OH, MO, LA, KY, NH (which is Boston Media), and NC as gettable seats in the next cycle, do we have the money to hold NY? Just a causal estimate, IL costs 120 million, as does FL. OH and MO cost 50-75, CA if we have a Govenator challenge costs 250, KY, LA, and NC cost 40-million dollars. That would make it between 850 million and 900 million dollars to run in all those races and win. Not including KS, IA, SD and Idaho which are states we could make a move in if we had the money. That is just for the senate. Do we really have time for a primary fight that will cost millions, and weaken our chance to win in NY and other states?

J

[superstition]

Does Maloney favor recognizing the equal rights gay people already have under the Constitution, or does she think we're "separate and not equal" despite the 14th Amendment (which apparently the "Constitutional Scholar in Chief" hasn't read)?

[Busbydav]

She came out for gay marriage when she was appointed a year ago actually.

[glorialovelace]

"But I did write her, Obama, and Schumer my absolute assurance that any attempt to stop a primary for her seat will result in my leaving the Senate slot blank"

LOL, Wow, you really know how to throw your weight around.

[Seattle Brian]

You don't think it's relevant to note that you're now handling Maloney's press calls and once she officially enters the race, she'll be using you as a strategist/media consultant?

"I hope Congresswoman Maloney does decide to enter the race."

I'm sure you do.

[RofWH]

You are supposed to click on reply. Otherwise who know what you are talking about. Hello out there...

[Squaker]

It seemed pretty clear what he was saying to me

[glorialovelace]

"I hope Congresswoman Maloney does decide to enter the race."

Indeed. Ka-ching!!!

[NorthSide]

HUffPO: a better job finding site than Monster.com!