As Kos noted yesterday, despite last week's wave of media enthusiasm for Clinton, Obama's delegate lead didn't shrink at all. The delegate math doesn't look good for Clinton: she'll need a big win in Pennsylvania, an upset in North Carolina, and solid victories in Florida and Michigan revotes, all still up in the air.
So, barring the unlikely, Barack Obama will preserve his delegate lead and become the Democratic nominee. At the risk of starting the Monday morning quarterbacking a bit too early, how did Obama put the Clinton machine on the brink of defeat?
Other than the obvious -- charisma, fundraising, Iraq, to name a few -- consider this:
Obama's overall delegate lead: 117
Obama's delegate advantage in caucuses: 129 delegates
The Clinton campaign's decision to "skip" the caucuses by not matching Obama's investment in local organizing, may be the biggest political strategy blunder since the ignore-the-swiftboat call.
Idaho. Maine. Texas. Nebraska. These are not obvious "Obama states" yet he grabbed big delegate leads in each of these caucuses.
Why? Because Obama's campaign embraced bottom-up campaigning. Because it pumped money into local organizers. Because it gave tools to precinct captains and volunteers.
While Obama also ran television advertising and leveraged endorsers, Clinton's campaign is marked by its top-down messaging and its use of local political machines. Obama perfected bottom-up organizing - and the caucus system rewarded him.
I'm torn when it comes to caucuses. On one hand I respect their political intimacy, the retail politicking, and the face-to-face discourse they require. And I've admired the Obama movement in its execution: armies of Obama'ites rolling up their sleeves, packing events, knocking on doors, calling neighbors. It's the image of democracy thriving.
On the other hand, caucuses are overtly undemocratic. I'm on the Advisory Board of Why Tuesday? and we've reported why caucuses can be extremely difficult for voters to participate in. Single moms, service employees, hospital workers, hell, just an average working citizen having to spend two hours locked in a room--many times on a Tuesday evening--is a lot to ask for democratic participation.
Fortunately, I think we can have it both ways. My estimation is that, whether Clinton pulls off a surprise victory or not, top-down campaigning is toast in our party. The benefits of bottom-up inclusion, financial and organizational, are too great to sacrifice in favor of top-down control. And whether it is a caucus or primary, the bottom-up, caucus-style, army-driven political strategy is here to stay.
While our democracy is refreshed through bottom-up campaigning and all-star candidates with inspiring messages, we must find ways to sustain this increased participation, starting with a dialogue about the state of our voting system. When it comes to our primary calendar, we must make voting more accessible, whether its eliminating caucuses, moving them to to Saturdays (as Nevada and Wyoming did), or just adding absentee caucus ballots. And, in the general, we should consider instituting a national Election Day holiday, expanding mail-in ballots, and experimenting with Internet voting.
Our grassroots has been liberated through bottom-up campaigning. Now we need to upgrade our voting system to sustain this renewed enthusiasm in democracy.
Don't you think it's time for an upgrade?
Joe Trippi is a CBS Political Analyst and Principal of Trippi & Associates. He is an advisor to Why Tuesday?, a non-partisan, non-profit organization exploring ways to improve America's voting system.
Follow Joe Trippi on Twitter: www.twitter.com/joetrippi
obama '08
What's wonderful is that Obama is getting registered democrats (and republicans and independents) to vote for him who didn't even bother to vote for Hillary but Bill didn't even capture the votes of these people.
JOE, BTW you owe Gil Scott Heron
P.S.
The revolution is being televised - the Clinton v. Obama battle is just heating up and Ron Paul stirred things up on the republican side and Ralph is back!
Bottom up is the only way to go if you're progressive, and I must say that seeing hundreds of people stand for hours in the rain to vote in 2004 convinced me that early voting is a great option. It also is a way to stop that old Republican ploy of moving the polling place or hiding the entrance. Republicans have gotten a leg up too many times by supressing the black vote, and it's not going to work this year.
Then here comes Hillary, the anointed, the would-be empress, the DLC front who, along with her husband, will now assume her rightful place in charge of the nation, and gets her ass whipped. Inelegant, I will allow, but true just the same. And she knows she's whipped, or else why is she crying and whining about life being unfair? The late Molly Ivins (God rest her beautiful soul) called it all right in her article, "Anybody But Hillary." Reading that opened my eyes and everything Molly wrote about Hillary has proven to be true.
So God rest you all and keep on truckin' 'cause better days are coming soon.
We now live in a state where every primary and vote is by mail. It is really creepy on a deep level. We do not ever need to talk to a neighbor again. Just tune in to the t.v. and it will tell you what to do. Just listen to the mydrid campaign phone calls and they will tell you what to do. Don't talk to your neighbor. Oh no.
Fortunatly, this is Washington state and every four years we are allowed to caucus for a presidential candidate. Relationships made on that caucus floor last for the next four years. It's the way to get to know your neighbors. Do something that really counts.
And it also points out just how "different" caucuses are from primaries. If we really want to "let the people decide", we should get away from the entire delegate system, and count votes, pure and simple. Though personally, I like the idea of a majority selection, and so would prefer a ranked voting system.
of the democratic party at heart. I could have easily supported his candidate, but I find that the
slash and burn politics of the Clinton's would probably make me write in Mickey Mouse, for the
presidential candidate, as I could not vote for McCain.
You gotta read this. I'm all misty.
OBAMA08
The reason I say this is because when I was unemployed in 2007, I went out there and tried it all out for myself. It was easy, and it felt comfortable, as if I mattered to the campaign. It's not so much that I know that I'm only a really small cog in a huge machine, but rather that it encourages me to do something instead of sitting around and complaining about the Bush administration all the time and worrying that administration's policies would continue. If I wanted to, or not, I could go out and talk to people and have all the information I would need on hand to do the job. Or I could promote the campaign in other ways. THAT is why Obama's campaign has done so well, because it's incredibly easy to get involved. You didn't feel at any point that you HAD to donate or that you HAD to do anything, it was all up to you. Clinton skipping out on those states hurt, but the truth was, she didn't beat him to the punch by making it easy for her supporters to do the same thing, not nearly as effectively or open. For Clinton, it always came down to how much money you've bundled for her early on, and her organization came way too late.
As far as Joe's other ideas are concerned, i.e. Saturday caucuses, a national election day holiday, Internet-based voting, etc? Sure, bring it on...
Can't wait to see how much more revolutionary our presidential elections will be in the future!
And yeah, we need National Election Day Holiday and all those other things like fish need water at this point. Polls should also be open for 24 hours, opening and closing at the same time across the country, so that work schedules don't interfere. I like to physically go to my polling place (with my children) and encourage people to continue to do so even if we do get more options to meet our diverse needs as an electorate (and I'm going to go check out that whytuesday site).
http://lessig.org/blog/2008/02/10_minutes_on_whether_hillary.html