The Race is Still Close -- but It's Beginning to Feel Like It Could Be a Rout for Obama

If you have checked in here over the past month or so you have seen me warn that Democrats and progressives should take the McCain/Palin ticket seriously. Take nothing for granted. I urged people not to laugh at Palin and pointed out that even Dan Quayle became Vice President.

But I have to say, that though the polls may still be showing the race to be tight, it feels to me like Obama is opening up the real possibility of an Electoral College rout over John McCain.

McCain didn't need to just win the debate last night, he needed to disqualify Barack Obama -- demonstrate that Obama wasn't ready and wasn't a safe choice.

McCain did his best with a flurry of "you don't understand", "that's dangerous", "very dangerous" and "naïve". But Obama was still standing -- and the guy that looked a little scary was McCain.

That is why this is beginning to feel like a rout to me. McCain would want us all to be going into the final month of the campaign having serious doubts about Barack Obama. Instead it is McCain's actions that are causing doubts to rise about McCain's own candidacy.

Picking Sarah Palin was a bold move -- I urged taking her pick seriously -- but her recent performance is raising doubts about McCain's judgment. The erratic behavior of his campaign over the past week -- suspending his campaign -- left most scratching their heads and asking what the hell was that about? Disastrous. Then in the debate last night there was John McCain ready to take anyone on -- Russia, China, North Korea, Iran -- all of them, and then turned and said Obama didn't get it. In my view McCain may have sounded more dangerous to voters as he tried so blatantly to make them think Obama wasn't a safe bet in this very "scary" world.

And can someone please explain to me how John McCain went into the debate last night not armed with the one thing that would have made him seem safe? Where was the John McCain who said, in his GOP acceptance speech in St Paul, "I hate war, its terrible beyond imagination"? Where was that guy? Because the guy that showed up seemed to want to send troops just about everywhere. Who's scary now?

And this week comes the Palin/Biden debate -- that ought to calm people's doubts and fears.

I know the polls show it is close -- but when states like Missouri, Florida and Virginia are still in the toss-up category that signals a potential Obama rout to me. And it certainly isn't the electoral map
you want to be looking at if you work for McCain at this point.

And then there is the Obama campaign -- far from erratic -- a strong candidate and the strongest campaign organization in American political history. Obama delivered last night in what should have been his toughest debate -- his campaign organization should deliver a one to three points in additional voters to the polls in get-out-the-vote operations in key states the campaign is targeting. So if these states are close in the closing days of the campaign, Obama is likely to win most of them.

It's a lifetime or two between now and election day, by no means is this thing over. Questions of polling accuracy are legitimate in my view. Things can turn on a dime and I may change my take on how things are going. But right now this thing feels like it is really starting to unravel for McCain and Obama could open up a strong electoral lead.

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Comments

[bclintonk]

McCain is in deep trouble. The Palin pick, after initially giving him a big boost, is starting to drag him down as people question his judgment in choosing such an obviously unprepared running mate. His behavior over the last several weeks has voters beginning to see that "maverick" means erratic, impulsive, rash, unprincipled, unsteady, unreliable, possibly even dangerously unstable, consumed with self-righteousness, and disturbingly and arrogantly cocksure of his own unreflective snap judgments---all the reasons he was despised by his own Republican colleagues in the Senate all those years. In contrast, voters are becoming increasingly comfortable trusting the country to the leadership of the cool, confident, thoughtful, intelligent, and steady Barack Obama. There could still be major reversals, but McCain probably lost his best chance in the foreign policy debate that he failed to win. Look for increasingly shrill and hysterical attacks from the McCain camp in a last desperate attempt to bloody Obama. But unless they find something that sticks, I expect Obama's lead to continue to grow steadily into a Reagan-scale election day romp, significantly redrawing the nation's electoral map.

[realist333]

This is not the time to be counting chickens. Democrats will have to work hard, and work together, to win the White House. Nobody knows yet how the election will turn out. This is no time to take it easy.

[MrFun]

I agree 100%.

[ellawensmom]

Yep. It's going to take every one of us. Don't anybody take an Obama win for granted.
Get out and WORK, WORK, WORK!!!

Obama/Biden 08

[BottomLine2008]

You got that right. Palin is a joke. Glad you finally figured that.

[demfriend]

Well if that crazy mayor back east can drag the story out that the internet has run like a bad loop of smelly cheeze again and again calling Obama the anti christ then McCain should be fair game for everything we can think of to call him...the internet works in many ways. But all jokes aside, we should explore and ask the same questions asked for years without any valid answers. McCain's medical record that very few got a very quick one eyed, no camera and hands tied behind their backs, remember that? The POW account with all of the black slashed marks all over it which was about McCain's record. You know it was the account about the MIA's that never made it back from Vietnam. Oh and how about the record, the real voting record that the Senate has hidden away in a regular place where regular people can get it that actually shows how very little McCain has voted for our troops/sol­diers/vets that he claims to "love". Yeah the tippy top of it all, we know he loves craps and plys often with wifies money or the casino money whose the bestest friends of his.

[knixphan]

We NEED A BLOWOUT!

Work on all your neighbors, family and friends.

O needs you!

[ProudLiberalDan]

Nobody get complacent.

A week is a lifetime in politics. I still expect an October surprise in the middle east to try and bring the election back to foreign policy in a last ditch effort to save McCain. Add this to all the dirty tricks the Rovians will use to discourage turnout, no one should be assuming ANYTHING.

A cornered animal has amazing fight in it, and the more desperate the conservative movement gets, the more desperate their actions.

It's going to be a LONG 36 days. Everyone take a deep breath and don't assume a thing.

[romeyp]

Stop it! Stop it NOW! This is silly talk.
It is this type of talk that causes Democrats to stay at home on election day because they figure we've got it in the bag.
I'm working my A$$ off and don't find this type of early talk helpful.
Pay no attention to anything he says in the article. Work, keep working, and when you're good and tired.....­.......Wor­k some more!
It's not over, until it's over.

[1differentdrummer]

We all need to send more $$$ and work.

[juzcuz]

I have made many donations and will continue as much as I can until Obama is elected. I don't have a lot of money but am willing to gamble all I have for a President I can admire, feel comfortable in, trust, get inspired by, take pride in, and more. It is a gamble and big risk for those who can't see the light of day and decide to stay in the DARKNESS with McBush and Smudged LIps. Obama is a sure and authentic candidate who is compassionate and truly cares about each one of us. In God I trust that a New Earth can happen and heal with Obama/Biden.

Obama= Inspiration
McBush = a GREAT DEPRESSION

[LABC]

Amen - next paycheck = more money for Obama. And some volunteer opportunities coming up in Virginia, etc. I am not taking a thing for granted!!!!

[SimonNZ]

I hope McCain's updated his country club membership. After the election he's gonna have a lot of time to spend on the golf course with Bob Dole, reminiscing about what might been...............

[Pulemerci]

I would keep in mind the "Bradley Effect." Also, Obama's lack of experience is troubling to most voters.

[SamH]

Except that the so-called "Bradley Effect" has been conclusively disproven during the long, LONG primary season.

As for "most voters," being troubled by Obama's inexperience: also a non-starter, and disproven time and again over the last two years. Most voters really don't care about that, and are concerned about other issues.

Nice try, though.

[Pulemerci]

OK. We'll see.

[SouthernBlueBelle]

From your lips to God's ear.

[johnnygoodwud]

i am a 61 yr. old white male who had voted repub. my entire life, until the last bush election. i would never vote for mc cain, and race has never crossed my mind. i don't care of our pres is pink, eats arrugla, and drinks wine, beer, or water from the river. i don't care if i have things in common with him, other than issues/country, and i don't care if we sit down for a cool one. JUST DO THE JOB.

[Clavis]

Right on, brother! I'm a lifelong indepedent (never registered for either party -- I'm with George Washington; parties are counter-productive to American principles). McCain's one presidential decision so far -- choosing a VP -- resulted in Sarah Palin. "Wh-wh-WHAT?!?!" LOL...

[PumaAnn]

Some new poll this morning, Battleground?, shows Mac up by 2. It's quite a bit different from yesterday's Rasmussen and Gallup.

Then again, today's polls will actually reflect the debate results.

[LABC]

Hope this helps clear it up for you. Not that I expect clarity from you, just more clutching at straws...

Monday, September 29, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That’s the fourth straight day Obama has been at 50% and the fourth straight day McCain has been at either 44% or 45% (see trends). Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 55%.

The last three national tracking polls -- Gallup (+8), Rasmussen (+6), Hotline/Diageo (+5) -- each have Barack Obama leading John McCain by at least 5 points. So did three of the previous four polls before that: CBS/N.Y. Times, Fox and Marist.

Only the George Washington Battleground poll shows McCain ahead, by 2 points. But that is battlegrounds only. For more information about this poll and its origin: http://www.tarrance.com/bg.cfm

[Pepper14]

Whoever wins this election will be the loser. If Obama wins fine but he really doesn't have what it takes to be President. Voters are impressed when they first hear him but if you have followed him you know that he just repeats the same thing over and over and seems to have to be told what to do and say. He will be just as hated in a few months as Bush is right now and will not be able to do all the things he says he will do. If he is elected look for a GOP control of the house in two years.

[Fez]

No one will ever be as hated as George W. Bush is. No one. Bush has set the standard by which all other drooling, half-bright, simian frat boys will be judged. His legacy will be to have sewer treatment plants, cemeteries, and hazardous waste dumps named after him.

[gadfly55]

The WASP is defunct after running the show for 250 years. Welcome to the new world.

[gadfly55]

Obama can move the country from 1958 to 2012 where the planet is burdened with failed ideology, the biggest myth of which is relentless growth with no costs.

[SamH]

Obama says "the same things over and over" because that's what campaigners do. It's called a stump speech. McCain does something quite similar, though much more awkwardly.

As for Obama having to be told what to say: as with the false claim above that "most voters" are concerned about Obama's supposed inexperience, this doesn't bear out. Obama can answer any question, any time, posed by anyone, with depth and coherence. Compare that to the performance of McCain even in canned interviews.

[EbonBear]

Obama probably will end up hated. Oh, not for the reasons you think because that's just you pressing your own fears onto him. No, he will end up hated because the Republicans will A) launch endless hostile probes over rumours and lies, just as they did to Clinton and B) the second Obama takes office, the Republicans will start blaming him for the economic meltdown they have caused and over which he has little control, exactly as they did with the "Clinton Recession". This is now SOP for the Republicans, blame everything from acts of god to acts of Citibank on Democrats and their media lackey will endlessly reinforce it.

[BannedInBoston]

Hope you're right, Joe. But you're also right that we should take nothing for granted. We have to keep working. The stakes are high. Personally, I believe that if Palin/McCain win, it's all over for this country. We are about to go the way of the Roman Empire. Game over, man....