France's wrenching shift to the right in last Sunday's regional elections should serve as a warning to American liberals. Many of the same currents that led an unprecedented number of French voters to pull the lever for the right-wing National Front have also influenced the political fortunes of Donald Trump and could have a similar impact on the 2016 U.S. presidential elections.
In the first round of the two-step elections for regional representatives last Sunday, French voters put Marine Le Pen's party in the lead in six of the country's 13 regions. The incumbent Socialist Party came in a poor third in several races, well behind Nicolas Sarkozy's center-right Les Republicains. The National Front, formerly led by Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, was once seen as a pariah because of his frequent racist and anti-Semitic statements. But the daughter has effectively smoothed the rough edges and thrust the party into the center of the political debate. "The National Front has completed its transformation with a very clear position: an accent on French identity, immigration and security," French historian Nicolas Lebourg wrote in the liberal daily, Liberation.
Many experts believe the National Front's surge has been aided by recent events like the November 13 terrorist attacks that killed 130 people in Paris and the flood of refugees from the Middle East to Europe. But polls also indicate long-term discontent with the government of President Francois Hollande that Marine Le Pen has exploited: a stagnant economy with unemployment frozen at 10 percent, a deep sense that France is losing its identity because of Muslim immigration and a perception that the French political elite is increasingly alienated from the concerns of ordinary French men and women.
These issues will ring familiar to those who have followed Donald Trump's quest for the Republican presidential nomination. The Tea Party slogan -- embraced by Trump -- about "Taking America back" is rooted in the view that those who used to run the country are losing control. The San Bernardino massacre reinforced an American sense of vulnerability that began with the September 11, 2001 World Trade Center attacks. And the impression that the economy is not performing -- despite a historically low unemployment rate of 5 percent -- has also left vast numbers of middle-class Americans worried about the future.
Both France and the U.S. are experiencing broad dissatisfaction with the performance of their traditional political parties. In the U.S., this unhappiness was characterized by the Tea Party movement, and now by growing support for outliers like Trump and Senator Ted Cruz. Le Pen has characterized the traditional political parties as two peas in the pod and positioned her movement as the only one to truly care about the French people.
The National Front is poised to take control of at least two regions and maybe more if the two trailing parties don't present a united front. The common front strategy worked in 2002 when Jean-Marie Le Pen won a place in the second round of presidential elections and Socialists leaders convinced their members to hand an overwhelming victory to Jacques Chirac. But some Socialist candidates have rejected orders from party leaders to withdraw from races where Sarkozy's Les Republicains would have a better chance of beating National Front candidates. Sarkozy's party has flatly refused to withdraw from any second round races. But this time, French voters seem more willing to give the newcomers a chance. That reaction should be reason for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats to pay close attention to the second round results next Sunday.