New Jersey's Next Governor Is Unknowable

The word 'if' is in high use among in-the-know New Jersey politicos these days. Ask who they think will win the governor's race on Tuesday, and you'll hear a lot of: 'Well, Christie wins if....' or 'Corzine's got it in the bag if....' Not a lot of confident voices.

The miraculous resurrection of Governor Jon Corzine in the crucial month of October has had a lot of people thinking the Democrat is running away with the thing. Not so. And a spate of polls favorable to Republican Chris Christie have caused some to even their keels once again.

Still, observers return to this caveat: the last few cycles have shown the Democratic candidate poll several points below his election day tally. The Democrats' superior turnout operation has crushed the Republicans, making them look silly for even thinking they could win these races. So, if it's neck-and-neck, give the tie-breaker to Corzine.

That sounds sensible -- I even made that argument myself a few weeks ago. Yet on further reflection, we are talking about Jon Corzine, who hemorrhaged popularity with the voting public a year and a half ago and never gained it back. If any Democrat could be the exception to his party's election day surges, it's him.

There's a big enough pool of undecideds, as well as no guarantee that the third party candidate holds onto his support. This could be a nail-biter or it could be a blowout. But be wary of anyone who says this race was a given, one way or the other.

(By the way, did you notice that when President Obama is visiting the state on Sunday, the Republicans are sending Joe 'You Lie' Wilson?)

Follow John R. Bohrer on Twitter: www.twitter.com/JRBwrites

Comments

[VicF]

Christie busted corrupt officials, Corzine donated to them; never has the choice been more stark; Christie took on corruption in NJ and busted more officials than anyone in U.S. history; whereas Corzine ran for governor to give his senate seat to menendez, he is so in hoch to the one party machine here. Corzine does not know what he is doing and in over his heads, so it seems, where at least Christie has demonstrated the legal training to look around and figure out what is going on.

[Carl Caroli]

NJ is the perfect example of the problem in this country. A two party system that is so broken I'll go to the polls holding my nose. Always the lesser of two evils. I wouldn't trust either Corzine or Christie with my halloween candy. The third, fourth, fifth... party candidates don't have a chance in hell, so if I want to prevent one from winning I'm forced to vote for the other or suffer the consequences. We absolutely need to eliminate the two party system, eliminate lobbying, change campaign finance laws and level the playing field so that in fact, the best man/woman can win. As it stands, we are perpetually forced to vote for one of the parties the local corporations and power players have selected for us, even though they are not going to live up to their promises and are as corrupt as their predecessor. There's got to be a better way.