The current health of Venezuelan President Hugo Rafael Chavez can best be described as parlous.
The health of the leader of Latin America's self-proclaimed Bolivarian revolution has enormous global implications, even as the American press regards it as a minor diversion somewhere below March Madness.
Why should Americans care?
Well, for a start, according to the U.S. Energy Administration, the United States total crude oil imports now average 9.033 million barrels per day (mbpd), with the top five exporting countries being Canada (2.666 mbpd), Mexico (1.319 mbpd), Saudi Arabia (1.107 mbpd), with Venezuela in fourth place at 930 mbpd.
Venezuela has the largest conventional oil reserves and the second-largest natural gas reserves in the Western Hemisphere and in 2010 OPEC stated that of the organization's 81.33 percent of the globe's known oil reserves Venezuela had 24.8 percent, exceeding Saudi Arabia with 22.2 percent.
Any more questions as for why the gringos should follow this?
The story began last summer, when the Venezuelan government made the dramatic announcement that Chavez underwent cancer treatment in Cuba. On June 30, Chavez confirmed in a televised address from Havana that he was recovering from a June 10 operation to remove an abscessed groin tumor that had been diagnosed as malignant. Two days later, Spain's El Periodico de Catalunya reported that, according to Venezuelan diplomatic sources, Chavez had "colon cancer that has perforated the intestinal wall and has caused an infection in the abdomen." The Venezuelan government denied the report the next day.
The right-wing Latino press of southern Florida had a field day with the reports, gleefully insisting that Chavez was terminally ill, citing unnamed American intelligence specialists.
Since his initial diagnosis, President Chavez has undergone three operations in less than a year and received two sessions of chemotherapy radiation treatment. Ever the optimist, President Chavez has said that his latest surgery was successful, that he is recovering well and that he will be fit to win a new six-year term at Venezuela's presidential elections scheduled for October 7.
But on April 5, at a pre-Easter Mass in Barinas the day after he returned from Cuba, President Chavez participated in a mass for his recovery, and the optimism faded as he said during the service transmitted by the official channel VTV amid a few tears described cancer as "a true threat that marks the end of the path for many people. The end of the physical path, that's the truth." Chavez concluded, "Give me your crown, Jesus. Give me your cross, your thorns, give me your blood, I am prepared to carry it. But give me life, because I have more to do for this country and these people. Do not take me yet, Christ. Amen."
The biggest question in the event of President Chavez being incapacitated or killed by his cancer is the country's political future, and of all the government's branches the military is best positioned for the potential role of kingmaker. In February, shortly after President Chavez departed for Cuba for his second round of chemotherapy Admiral Anibal Brito wished his commander in chief god-speed, commenting, "Know, illustrious compatriot and masterful leader of the imperative Bolivarian revolution, that with you everything can be accomplished, without you -- nothing."
During 13 years in power, mindful of the nation's history of coups d'états, and the fact that he himself in 1992 led a failed coup that gave him national visibility and paved the way for his election in 1998, President Chavez has cultivated his support in the military from the lowest ranks up through the officer corps and the high command. On April 4, President Chavez noted the upcoming 10th anniversary of the April 11, 2002 coup by disgruntled military officers and right-wing politicians and businessmen that briefly removed him from office before his supporters took to the streets and loyal military units intervened. Whether Brito's recent pronouncements of loyalty represent the majority thinking of the officer corps only time will tell.
Whatever one thinks of President Chavez's politics, the fact remains that he is the first leader of Venezuela to have come up from the laboring classes of the country's marginalized indigenous people by dint of his hard work, ambition and character. He has never forgotten where he came from, devoting much of his administration's efforts to alleviating the appalling poverty afflicting Venezuela's lower classes, in turn earning the enmity of the country's political and business elites, who doubtless see the current situation as a golden opportunity to turn back the clock to the "good old days." As the administration of President Chavez forced multinational energy companies to cede a controlling share in their ventures to the state-owned energy firm Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., behind the scenes the international oil firms will doubtless be angling to reverse the nation's energy reforms as well.
Heightening the speculation that his condition is graver than portrayed, on Saturday President Chavez has said he will return to Cuba for a third round of radiotherapy to treat a recurrence of his cancer and flew back to Havana the next day.
Accordingly, should President Chavez's health continue to deteriorate, expect a significant tussle to emerge between the Venezuelans who have benefited from his reforms versus those who would like to reassert control one of the few Western Hemisphere's multi-million bpd assets.
Cross posted with Oilprice.com
John C.K Daly is the chief analyst at the energy news site Oilprice.com. Dr. Daly received his Ph.D. in 1986 from the School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University of London.
Follow Oilprice.com on Twitter @OilandEnergy and join us on Facebook.
To stay on top of important articles and research with our free private members service, sign up to the Oilprice.com Intelligence Report here.
Follow John C.K. Daly on Twitter: www.twitter.com/oilandenergy
Eric Farnsworth: The Latin American Spring
Yoani Sanchez: Chavez in Cuba? Or Cuba in Chavez?
As others have pointed out already Chavez is not a native Indian (as most Venezuelans he is of mixed races) and he is not the first Venezuelan leader to come from a working class or relatively humble backgrounds.
Regarding his record as a leader, well the results speak for themselves. After 13 years in office Venezuela has one of the worst economies in Latin America despite its oil riches. It is also one of the most corrupt countries in the world and one of the most violent and dangerous places on the planet. Chavez made a mess of Venezuela and will leave a dysfunctional country with dismantled or corrupted government institutions when he dies.
I was there when the Venezuelan oligarchy handed over the economy to the IMF and told the poor to literally take a hike and build slums and shanty towns in the surrounding hillsides of Caracas.
Wealthy Venezuelans had an opportunity a long time ago to implement "social programs", like Canada, in building public housing, transportation, and welfare programs to feed the poor.
Instead, they relied on the fact that if you allow the poor build slums they will still "survive" with some disposable income left for a short while until the IMF makes even that impossible.
Chavez realized the fact, like monarchies of old Europe, you can't be a "founding father" and start-from-scratch in rebuilding a nation when there exists too much corruption to allow for democracy.
However, "dictatorship" is somewhat outdated in the XXI Century and it's easy to see why Chavez will not be successful no matter how much he does for the poor, especially since he's gravely ill.
What I hope for Venezuela, if the country's elite takes back control, is not to forget a valuable lesson why Chavez rose to power in the first place and continue the social programs started.
Otherwise, a president, like Chavez will not be the last and future dictatorships could be worse.
"9.033 million barrels per day (mbpd), with the top five exporting countries being Canada (2.666 mbpd), Mexico (1.319 mbpd), Saudi Arabia (1.107 mbpd), with Venezuela in fourth place at 930 mbpd."
should be
"9.033 million...Venezuela in fourth place at 0.930 mbpd."
Sigh, how many cliches in a single sentence? First Chavez is not a member of any indian tribe, he like me and 80% of the country is of mixed race. Second please, please read the biographies of Jaime Lusinchi, Rafael Caldera, Raul Leoni etc. Lusinchi was an ilegitimate child, Caldera an orphan, and so on and so forth. This 'myth' that Venezuelan Presidents came from some oligarchic background is just symptomatic of someone writing without knowledge of the facts. Finally he may not be the first President of indigenous extraction bla bla. But what he is (fact) is the continuation of a militaristic/caudillista steak that refuses to die, that has a total contempt for civilian democracy. Chavez as you pointed out lead a coup, has staffed the upper echelons of government with army personnel etc. The fact that it is 'the army' who will be Kingmaker (and not the Constitution and the Institutions) is damming evidence of this.
A complete inaccurate statement. Mr. Chavez has turned Venezuela into a Cuban colony. Decisions that affect how we Venezuelans live are routinely been taken in Havana. Our Military, food distribution system, oil industry, intelligence apparatus and what not all have been turned in by Mr. Chavez to the Cubans. We have Cubans ordering Venezuelans around in our own country and even holding charges in our embassies around the world. You may say whatever you want about the old regime but I never saw a Venezuelan having to lower his head in his own country when speaking to a Cuban. Then we have the Chinese and the Russians to whom Mr. Chavez has sold essentials parts of our sovereignty and to whom the next generations of Venezuelans will owe their souls. All so that Mr. Chavez can have enough resources to keep him in power.
"As for helping the poor of his country" that is also an equally inaccurate statement. Most of current Mr. Chavez's policies are actually hurting the poor rather than helping them. In fact, I would say they are engineered to guarantee loyalty and submission to the regime rather than to serve as a mean to get out of poverty.
But the burden falls on you to show how or why the illness or death of Mr. Chavez would have any impact at all on the oil imported by the US. (I think you will concede that Mr. Chavez's health or death do not impact the world's known reserves.
Yet you say nothing at all about how US imports might be affected. You don't even offer speculation. You're writing about Chavez's personal history and his current state of health, but the best you have is that vague, nebulous final sentence? That if/when Chavez dies, some unnamed individuals may tussle?
That's all you've got?
While "parlous" can indeed mean full of danger or risk, the word's synonyms make it abundantly clear that the word is ill-suited to describe a person's declining health (e.g., hazardous, jeopardizing, menacing, dangerous, perilous, risky, threatening, unsafe, venturesome, etc)