North Korea shelled a South Korean island today, and South Korea responded with 80 shells of its own. Prior to the attack, South Korea conducted a test firing near the North Korean coast, but denies that any shells passed over the disputed maritime border. However, the risk of mistakes -- and misperceptions -- in such a contested area is very high.
Tensions were already running high on the peninsula. North Korea recently revealed to a visiting U.S. delegation its brand new uranium enrichment facility and a rudimentary light-water reactor. This was Pyongyang's way of saying that sanctions haven't done anything to retard its nuclear development. As for the timing, North Korea was clearly impatient with the Obama administration's policy of "strategic patience."
The nuclear revelations, by themselves, do not change the geopolitical dynamic. According to Siegfried Hecker, the former director of Los Alamos National Laboratory who toured the facilities, "I believe that although this peaceful program can be diverted to military ends, the current revelations do not fundamentally change the security calculus of the United States or its allies at this time. Pyongyang has gained significant political leverage already from the few plutonium bombs they have."
As two other members of the delegation Robert Carlin and John Lewis point out in The Washington Post, the United States should not dismiss negotiations with North Korea or simply let South Korea or Japan take the lead. "What is needed, right away, is a thorough review of the past 16 years of engagement with Pyongyang, analysis of the facts as we best know them and an honest assessment of the options," they write. Unfortunately, even before the artillery exchange, the United States rejected the idea of restarting negotiations and was cool to Pyongyang's proposal to transfer its nuclear rods to a third country in exchange for a U.S. recommitment to a declaration of no hostile intent.
For the moment, though, the deterioration of relations between North and South will likely dominate the news for a while. The artillery attack reverses what had been a very, very modest warming in north-south relations. In Seoul last week, I heard rumors that the Lee Myung Bak administration was thinking about pursuing a summit with North Korea next year. And the South Korean government had slowly backed away from its linking of nuclear negotiations to its demands for an apology for a ship, the Cheonan, that Seoul has accused Pyongyang of sinking back in March.
The Cheonan story, meanwhile, refuses to go away. In September, the South Korean government issued its full report on the Cheonan incident, which put the blame squarely on a North Korean torpedo. Rather than dispelling any lingering doubts, however, the report generated more criticism. "There are several sources of public skepticism, particularly from the scientific community," write FPIF contributors Peter Certo, Greg Chaffin, and Hye-Eun Kim in The Cheonan Incident. "Furthermore, the secretive attitude adopted by the Lee government, its heavy-handed approach in dealing with the incident, and its reluctance to address or even allow for questions or concerns have served to fuel skepticism and allowed for conspiracy theories to abound." Last week, the state-run TV station KBS aired a documentary that refuted several key elements of the South Korean report, including evidence that the tell-tale torpedo parts had been in the ocean, and not part of a recent explosion.
Let's hope that both North and South Korea step back from the brink. As I wrote in 2003, "The Korean War was a cataclysm, a terrible outpouring of blood and destruction. The 1953 armistice that halted the war may well have been only a provisional peace. Fifty years later, nearly two million soldiers face off across the DMZ, weapons of mass destruction abound on both sides, and military forces in the region are at hair-trigger readiness. Unless North Korea and the United States embark on serious negotiations rather than dead-end talks, a bigger, badder sequel to the 1950 conflict will be the unintended consequence. After the Deluge, as the old spiritual put it, 'God gave Noah the rainbow sign. No more water, the fire next time.'"
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*N Korea aggressions and is increasing NUC capability are done openly as never before.
*The Islamists are on offensive in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia as never before.
*Chaves is trying to create a NATO type organization of dictators and Theocratic.
*Iran is increasing the NUC, attack missile capability openly as never before.
*USA and the West economical leadership rebounded.
*Iran Islamist influence in Lebanon, Gaza , the Gulf states, Syria and other places is increasing exponentially as never before.
*Turkey following President Obama visit,under Endogen Islamist leadership ( Not Attaturk legacy), is enhancing the connections with Islamist Iran and many other Islamist activities.
*European NATO members lost their will to defend the free world and are decreasing their contribution to the defending forces.
*No Islamic leader has made a public speech in Arabic or Persian languages perusing for equality between world cults.
A great deal of the above list is the result of President Obama, the free world non leadership.
The charismatic president delivering well done speeches, CHANE- CHANGE- many disconnected from reality is leading were to?
South Korea Warns North Over Unprovoked Attack
South Korea's president has threatened "enormous retaliation" against North Korea if there is any further aggression against his country, just hours after scores of northern artillery shells hit Yeonpyeong, a South Korean island. http://www.newslook.com/videos/268723-south-korea-warns-north-over-unprovoked-attack?autoplay=true
You know, show them we mean business this time.
South Korea's economy, for starters, benefits greatly from the presence of the US military, without which foreign investment would likely be significantly hampered. "Keep an eye on China" implies what exactly? Unless you mean the suspicious eye South Koreans are keeping on China, since China is likely aiming at annexation of hanbando, starting with North Korea. I assure you that nearly every South Korean would be happy to have the US prevent that from happening. The fact that US presence ensures South Korean sovereignty is likely a stimulant for trade in North East Asia as well as between Korea and other nations, further benefitting South Korea.
And, as to unification... the biggest stumbling block to unification is not the US, it's Kim Jong Il, and his regime of hardliners. Moderates are not tolerated, in fact the successor attempted to assassinate his brother for being moderate. The aggressors were North Korea, have been North Korea, and continue to be North Korea. The rulers are self preserving and autocratic, have no interest in sincere negotiations, and will continue to provoke South Korea. Brinksmanship is in everyone's interest, in that the alternative is all out war, which is in only North Korea's interest. Brinksmanship is the result of frustration among North Korean leaders, who know the longer they wait the weaker they become.
Americans are not war mongering goons... thanks. And, no we don't want to fight Muslims and Islam. The region to which you refer as ISLAM! is the Middle East, and if you recall it has been the focal point of countless conflicts since the dawn of mankind, including... oh yea, Muslims conquering the pagans who lived there... and, other muslims. Only some of the greatest civilizations in world history, since the dawn of man, have lived and conquered there. It's not that special, though it is sad. American vs. Islam is such a cliche, get over it... we aren't out to convert muslims or conquer the holy land. Oil, Iran, Economic development in ours and the interests of a hundred other nations... maybe. In the end, it's people killing people for nothing more than some gains in wealth and power. Sorry, has nothing to do with religion, except how faith is used to make ignorant folks complicit. It's as old as man... yes it is sad, but no Americans are in no way the inventors.
Isn't this about Korea?
And yes, there are trillions of dollars worth of natural resources in North Korea.