Iran: Is Larijani the New Rafsanjani?

For much of the past 10 days (in fact, for much of the past 20 years) the prevailing wisdom among Iran watchers has been that it is Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who holds all the cards in Iranian politics -- and it's easy to understand why. Head of the powerful Assembly of Experts, President from 1989 to 1997, possibly the wealthiest man in Iran, largely responsible for Ali Khamenei's selection as Supreme Leader -- in short, the consummate eminence grise -- Rafsanjani is often ascribed something approaching Rasputin-like influence over all the levers of power in Iran. And since the 12 June presidential elections, speculating on his every move has become something of a parlor game.

But the reality is that Rafsanjani has probably played out his hand. By coming down firmly on the side of Mousavi, he has launched himself into an epic and decisive showdown with the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad (who attacked him repeatedly by name in the pre-election TV debates). Rafsanjani is no longer a kingmaker. He has become, behind the scenes at least, the leader of the opposition.

So where should we be looking for an early indication of which way things might go in Iran's election crisis? Two words: Watch Larijani.

One of Iran's shrewdest political operators, Ali Larijani, the speaker of Iran's parliament, is the country's perennial political bellwether. Uniquely and deeply loyal to the Supreme Leader, Larijani is a bedrock conservative, and a former member of the Revolutionary Guard. But he also has a PhD in Western Philosophy and has written four books on Kant, and is generally seen as someone open to better ties with the West. His open discomfort with Ahmadinejad's rambunctious style has led to frequent clashes with the President in recent years. In 2007, Larijani was removed from his post as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, in a move seen as an expression of the Supreme Leader's preference for Ahmadinejad's more confrontational approach. But parliament swiftly elected him speaker, in a near-unanimous show of opposition to Ahmadinejad. Throughout his career, Larijani -- the "quiet man" of Iranian politics -- has demonstrated a consistent knack for being in the right place, politically speaking, at the right time.

And his reactions to last Friday's elections have been classic Larijani -- deft, malleable, and sharply attuned to the shifting winds. Within hours on Saturday, he had pushed a resolution through the legislature congratulating Ahmadinejad on his resounding re-election -- providing a major boost to the Supreme Leader's efforts to out-maneuver the Mousavi camp in those crucial and confusing early hours. But then came a series of more nuanced statements that have kept everyone guessing as to his "real" allegiance -- and his ultimate intentions. Just since Sunday, he has suggested the Guardian Council might be "biased," accused the state broadcaster of being unfair to protesters in its coverage, held the Interior Ministry responsible for attacks on university dormitories, and demanded television air time for Mousavi to make his case to the public. In the same breath, though, he has lashed out at Britain and America, and criticized protesters for "creating unrest and disrupting public security."

Larijani is certainly not the only key figure to be hedging his bets during this critical time, and hoping not to end up on the wrong side of history. Most of the senior clerics in Qom -- including at least half the members of the Assembly of Experts -- have thus far remained silent and refused to signal a clear show of support for either camp. But Larijani's role is different. As parliament speaker, he doesn't have the luxury of withdrawing into a cocoon of dignified silence until the dust settles. Regardless of whether Mousavi or Ahmadinejad is declared the ultimate victor, the new President will be leading a deeply fractured nation, and will be more reliant than ever on the goodwill of parliament to get his legislative agenda through. More than almost anyone else in Iran, Larijani has the ability to make the new President's life a living hell for the next couple of years.

The fault lines have been drawn at the highest echelons of the Islamic Republic, and it has never been more obvious where everybody stands -- with one notable exception. Watch his every move, his every word.

Comments

[stpmdn]

All these tyrants will see their doom at some point in the future. The irony is what happened to the Shah is now going to happen to them.

[Kache]

At this point in time (Thur 06/25) the Iranian parliament is one of the few Iranian institutions that has not been compromised. The parliament may be the only "honest broker" left that can legitimize whatever the outcome is in the eyes of a majority of citizens.

Today only 105 out of 290 of the MPs accepted the invitation to celebrate President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election win. Yesterday Mousavi and Rafsanjani met with "parliament leaders". Yesterday's bloody demonstrations were at the parliament building.

Alway the pragmatist, Larijani's few statements indicate that he is less concerned with who won the election, or even who ends up President, than he is with an outcome that is acceptable to the majority of Iranians.

[Mogamboguru]

To quote you:

"The parliament may be the only "honest broker" left that can legitimize whatever the outcome is in the eyes of a majority of citizens."

That is EXACTLY the job-description for a decent, serious, democratically elected parliament.

[Kache]

EXACTLY!

[Horatiu]

Indeed. Larijani is an interesting player.

Somehow, he resembles Gorbachev from the last days of Brejnev. That means, an obviously politically cleaner, pragmatic and smart guy, who sometimes, in order not to shock the establishment, goes down to abrasive ideological approaches. Deceiving for everybody.

His "bad cop-good cop" statements from the past two weeks are not necessarily convincing, but they caught Western eyes.

Can he become an Iranian Gorbachev.

[Jimmyboyo]

Iran's government and the people in gov

COMPLEX and confusing to us westerners

I mentioned to someone the other day that the sheer complexity of their system(almost byzantine)and even if the supreme leader falls and his puppet ahmadine-crazy is out, there will not be chaos in the gov.

Persians have been playing the game of political intrigue for thousands of years.

While my own ancestors were still running around half naked in the forests of northern europe and picking fleas off of each other's backs, the ancestors of the persians were playing the game of politics between large nation states.

[Khirad]

I've been curious about this guy. Word is, he snubbed Ahmedinejad's victory celebration. He has been incredibly ambiguous and murky to read. Persians have a saying about the silent word.

[Kache]

"In 2007, Larijani was removed from his post as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, in a move seen as an expression of the Supreme Leader's preference for Ahmadinejad's more confrontational approach."

That is not what happened. As Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Larijani proposed replacing the Non-Proliferation Treaty with a new paradim, using consortiums to enrich fuel in participating countries. The EU and former Soviet republics already use consortiums to safeguard against diverting power fuel to further enrichment for bomb fuel. The EU negotiator Solana praised the approach. Ahmadinejad fired Larijani and appointed his own negotiator. Khamenei demanded that Ahmadinejad also include Larijani on the negotiating team. Larijani attended one meeting with the EU and then instead ran for parliament as the MP from Qom and was swiftly elected speaker.

Throughout this crisis Larijani has been rather consistent in making the point that the outcome must be supported by the majority of Iranians, who, he claims, overwhelmingly feel that the election was a sham.

[Cambyses]

One of the intelligent articles written on Iran since the crisis began … Thank you!

[Bleeker]

Frederick the Wise was a devoutly Catholic nobleman in the German states circa 1500, at the time of Martin Luther. Frederick was among the Catholic dignitaries sitting with St. Cajetan in judgment on Luther at Worms, though Frederick would later provide sanctuary to Luther for a critical two years after Luther's condemnation at Worms. Frederick disapproved of Luther theologically, but without Frederick's protection Luther would doubtlessly have burned at the stake and been forgotten to history.

Political expedience is indeed a powerful force. Where the winds of political expedience blow in Iran is certainly an interesting aspect of the unfolding situation.

[Yasmine]

I am totally disgusted at the stupidity of these officials, who have during 30 years have had the knack for going from bad to worse to worst.....­..........­..........­..........­....
There can be no hope for a revolution that started so well......­..........­....in 1979 with the slogan ALL TOGETHER..­..........­..but on Nov 4 1979 ie the HOSTAGE CRISIS which was named the second revolution CHANGED EVERYTHING and EVER SINCE THEN only ONE GROUP of people were allowed to have a say.......­........th­eir actions meant ONLY US ..........­......so was born the TOTALITARIAN PHASE of the REVOLUTION­.......up to 2009.
THERE was only the time when the previous PRESIDENT KHATAMI which we can be said was decent in one way but still many bad events happened then which i cannot blame on Khatami himself...­..........­........to­o bad President Bush did not reply to his letter.
He was worth dealing with.

[Quinterius]

Larijani is certainly a person to be watched durig this turmoil. During the nuclear negotiations he said something interesting. He said, "the West wants Iran just to grow tomatoes and build air conditioning units." Thus, he is no softy when it comes to negotiating with the West. But, as his comments about the university dormitory attacks show, he seems to be hedging his bets. Even the mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, today seems to have demanded that people should have a right to protest, although he also does not want riots in the streets. So, it will be interesting to see how things develop.