Obama Buys Into Surge Success, Loses Upper Hand

No, Barack Obama didn't lose the war in Iraq. He was right, and he's still right, to call for a reduction of troops and a withdrawal. What he lost was the war about the war: the war of media opinion. Admittedly, he was in a difficult position. The media have been repeatedly misleading the American people about the surge in Iraq, giving it sole credit for a reduction in killings (and failing to point out the still intolerable levels of violence in Iraq).

According to Bob Woodward's new book, the surge didn't cause the decline in violence in Iraq by itself:

Overall, Woodward writes, four factors combined to reduce the violence: the covert operations; the influx of troops; the agreement by militant cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to rein in his powerful Mahdi Army; and the so-called Anbar Awakening, in which tens of thousands of Sunnis turned against al-Qaida in Iraq and allied with U.S. forces.

According to Woodward, "85 to 90 percent of the successful operations and 'actionable intelligence' had come from" the change in techniques, not the expansion of troops.

Even Gen. David Petraeus (hardly an objective source as Bush's handpicked man in Iraq) admits that the surge did not bring victory: "Petraeus is careful not to credit all the progress to the surge of U.S. troops in 2007." According to Newsweek, "Would the Sunni Awakening have succeeded without the surge? Possibly, he concedes."

In fact, it's more than possible, since the Sunni Awakening began before the surge ever started, a fact that McCain was wrong about in the interview last month that CBS distorted to protect McCain.

So Obama was completely right when he declared back in 2007:

My assessment is that if we put additional 30,000 of our outstanding troops into Baghdad that that's going to quell some of the violence in the short term. I don't think that there's any doubt that as long as U.S. troops are present that they are going to be doing outstanding work. It doesn't change the underlying assessment that there's not a military solution to the situation in Iraq. The underlying political dynamic has not changed.

As Obama correctly predicted, the surge had a small effect in stabilizing Baghdad. But an increase in troops by itself wouldn't change anything in Iraq. And that's exactly what happened.

But Obama has allowed the pro-war spin machine to overwhelm him. Obama's big mistake was admitting that he was wrong when he wasn't, declaring on Bill O'Reilly's show last week that "the surge succeeded beyond anyone's wildest dreams." Even though reports about this line distorted Obama's meaning, it was still an incredibly stupid thing to say. Sarah Palin promptly slammed Obama: "I guess when you turn out to be profoundly wrong on a vital national security issue, maybe it's comforting to pretend that everyone else was wrong, too."

The interview reflected Obama's worst tendency (which is also tied to one of his best attributes): his willingness to listen to conservatives and empathize with them. Obama was anxious to be liked by O'Reilly and his viewers, and so he decided to give up completely on opposing the surge and told O'Reilly what he wanted to hear.

It's the worst mistake Obama has made yet in this campaign. Obama could have defused McCain's attacks by making a simple argument: that even without the surge, this improvement in military tactics, the Sunni Awakening, and the Al-Sadr brigade truce would have also dramatically decreased violence in Iraq. In fact, Obama could have argued that if his plan for withdrawal had been implemented earlier, it would have caused this reduction in violence to take place well before 2007. Why? The reduction in troops would have forced the US military to change its tactics and improve them; and it would have forced the Iraqis to undertake the political deals that led to the reduction in violence in Iraq. Can anyone be certain of this? No, but that's precisely why it's such a powerful argument: McCain can't dismiss Obama's hypothetical policy because we'll never know what might have happened.

It's baffling as to why Obama's campaign has failed to make this simple point. Perhaps there are simply too many of the pro-war Democrats advising his campaign right now, the traditional Democratic consultants who are terrified of Democrats appearing "weak" by opposing war.

Unfortunately, Obama gave up the argument completely. It was a weakness that the McCain will exploit in the next two months.

It's time for Obama to reverse himself, to declare that he made a verbal mistake in the O'Reilly interview by using the word "surge" to mean the entirety of US military and strategic policies in Iraq, and to point out that the achievements could have been made (and probably would have been made sooner) by decreasing US troops in Iraq. Obama can also point out the fact that the information in Woodward's book wasn't available to him for that interview, and it indicates that Obama was right all along.

Obama needs to reject the theory that the surge worked, right now, or he may lose this campaign.

Crossposted at DailyKos and ObamaPolitics.

Comments

[krocklin]

Giving the Surge and Occupation any credit is indeed a mistake.
The War is a quagmire and it could soon be worse than that - in both Afghanistan and Iraq.

Most voters aren't paying attention - and the mainstream media is not giving them the necessary
information about the reality on the ground over there - so it is no use explaining that we are PAYING both the Sunnis and the Sadar Army, and these have been the biggest factors in the very temporary let up in violence. What happens if we stop paying them?

The huge waste, conspiratorial corruption, and lies swirling around the invasion and occupation of Iraq should have been his emphasis.
The elephant in the room is that The War is heading toward even greater failure. But can Obama warn against this without being accused of "surrender"?
Could he explain that since day one the people of Iraq (and Pakistan and Afghanistan) don't want us there? This is the thing Woodward says that miffs Bush the most. They just aren't grateful for the destruction of their country!!

Democrats are afraid a clear position on this would make them vulnerable, but it also could be a "gamechanger". The Truth a gamechanger? Doesn't sound plausible.

So perhaps Obama should explain, as General Mullen did just today on TV, that no amount of troops can solve the problems in the region. Other methods are needed - especially our withdrawal.

[Mildmannered]

" He should now defuse McCain's attacks by making a simple argument: that even without the surge, the improvement in military tactics, the Sunni Awakening, and the Al-Sadr brigade truce would have also dramatically decreased violence in Iraq."

He (Obama) should only do so, if he believes it. If he doesn't believe it then he shouldn't lie about it. (That is not the way democrats act, though the repubs certainly do)

[GwenElle]

The problem is that we are talking about the surge -- whether it worked or didn't work. What Barack should be talking about, and all that he should be talking about is: (1) We should never have gone into Iraq in the first place and (2) Getting the troops back home to their families (3) John McCain voted for the war. I did not.

Talking about the surge is political suicide for Barack. That is about the only thing that McCain can claim as a win. Don't play his game.

[tompoe]

Who did Obama lose the upper hand to?

Quoting Woodward as some kind of authority is losing the upper hand. The man is a willing participant in the Bush/Cheney propaganda machine. He says the U.S. has secret stuff that, if known by the bad guys, would make all the bad guys leave Iraq. Knowing that, he and Bush/Cheney won't reveal it. Why not? If it saves Iraqi lives, American lives, ends the violence, lets Iraq move to the next level as a sovereign state, why wouldn't he announce his super secret whatever? Anyone who buys into this Kool Aid deserves what Third Term Bush brings.

[riley85]

There's only one reason why Obama went on OReilly--FOX has the voters he needs.
He may think admitting the surge worked will win over some of those swing voters--but they are smarter than that.

Obama wasn't being brave by going on FOX he was desperate.

OReilly proved to viewers that Obama will change his stance under pressure, has a pattern of hanging with bad people, will ruin small businesses with taxes, is indecisive and weak.