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John Kerry

John Kerry

Posted: August 31, 2009 12:21 PM

We Can't Ignore the Security Threat from Climate Change


{crossposted at Operation Free}

On August 6, 2001, President George W. Bush famously received an intelligence briefing entitled, "Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S." Thirty-six days later, al Qaeda terrorists did just that.

Scientists tell us we have a 10-year window -- if even that -- before catastrophic climate change becomes inevitable and irreversible. The threat is real, and time is not on our side.

Facts, as John Adams said, are stubborn things. Here are a few you need to know: Atmospheric carbon-dioxide levels have risen 38% in the industrial era, from 280 to 385 parts per million (ppm). Scientists have warned that anything above 450 ppm -- a warming of 2 degrees Celsius -- will result in an unacceptable risk of catastrophic climate change.

The truth is that the threat we face is not an abstract concern for the future. It is already upon us and its effects are being felt worldwide, right now. Scientists project that the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013. Not in 2050, but four years from now.

Make no mistake: catastrophic climate change represents a threat to human security, global stability, and -- yes -- even to American national security.

Climate change injects a major new source of chaos, tension, and human insecurity into an already volatile world. It threatens to bring more famine and drought, worse pandemics, more natural disasters, more resource scarcity, and human displacement on a staggering scale. We risk fanning the flames of failed-statism, and offering glaring opportunities to the worst actors in our international system. In an interconnected world, that endangers all of us.

The individual data points may sometimes be murky. But the pattern they create is irrefutably clear: We don't know if Hurricane Katrina was caused by climate change, but we do know that we are rapidly heading for a world where climate change causes worse Katrinas. We don't know with certainty whether climate change pushed Darfur over the edge, but we do know that it will cause more tension just like we've seen in Darfur.

Once you accept the science, it's clear that such massive environmental change will create dislocation, destruction, chaos, and conflict. And history teaches us that we are deluding ourselves if we think that we are insulated from world events.

The people of the tiny coastal village of Newtok, Alaska offer a harbinger of the challenges ahead. Citizens there recently voted to move their village nine miles inland because melting ice shelves made their old home too dangerous.

But don't take my word for it. Anyone who doubts the reality of climate change should go to Alaska and see the melting permafrost for themselves, or listen to the state's two U.S. senators tell worrisome stories about climate change's current -- not future -- impact on their state.

Anyone who doubts the threat should talk to the 11 retired American admirals and generals who warned in 2007 that "Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and it presents significant national-security challenges for the United States."

You can even ask the security planners in the Bush Administration, whose final national-defense strategy document recognized climate change among key trends that will shape U.S. defense policy in the coming years.

Or ask the National Intelligence Council -- the U.S. intelligence community's think-tank -- which has concluded that "global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national-security interests over the next 20 years."

Former CENTCOM Commander Anthony Zinni, no radical tree-hugger, put it simply: "We will pay for this one way or another. We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today, and we'll have to take an economic hit of some kind. Or, we will pay the price later in military terms. And that will involve human lives. There will be a human toll."

Nowhere is the connection between climate and security more direct than in South Asia -- home to al Qaeda. Scientists now warn that the Himalayan glaciers which supply fresh water to a billion people in the region could disappear completely by 2035. Think about what this means: Water from the Himalayans flows through India and Pakistan. India's rivers are not only vital to its agriculture but are also critical to its religious practice. Pakistan, for its part, is heavily dependent on irrigated farming to avoid famine.

At a moment when the U.S. government is scrambling to ratchet down tensions and preparing to invest billions of dollars to strengthen Pakistan's capacity to deliver for its people -- climate change could work so powerfully in the opposite direction.

Worldwide, climate change risks making the most volatile places even more combustible.
The bottom line is that failure to tackle climate change risks much more than a ravaged environment: It risks a much more dangerous world, and a gravely threatened America.

Unfortunately, not everyone in Washington appreciates the stakes. It's tragic that we live at a time when if one were to dismiss the threat of terrorism, you'd be sent home in the next election. But there are no similar political consequences if you dismiss the science or the threat of climate change.

This winter, delegates from 192 nations will gather in Copenhagen to create a new global climate treaty. Between now and then, the United States Congress is expected to act on climate legislation.

The decisions we make in coming months will determine whether we meet this challenge head-on and prevail or if we are to suffer the worst consequences of a warming planet.

This time we have to connect the dots before we face catastrophe.

Follow John Kerry on Twitter: www.twitter.com/JohnKerry

{crossposted at Operation Free} On August 6, 2001, President George W. Bush famously received an intelligence briefing entitled, "Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S." Thirty-six days later, al Qae...
{crossposted at Operation Free} On August 6, 2001, President George W. Bush famously received an intelligence briefing entitled, "Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S." Thirty-six days later, al Qae...
 
 
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09:11 PM on 09/11/2009
increasing CO2 levels higher than they were 3 million years ago, is very likely to cause the climate to "switch" to a new pattern.
04:35 AM on 09/07/2009
The National Academy of Science says climate change is real and man made.

Here is a nice video on Youtube that addresses the climate change deniers/liars.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwnrpwctIh4
09:20 AM on 09/07/2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwnrpwctIh4 ???
A stellar scientific report replete with hip-hop music background...
I don't know which is worse, that someone would quote such crap as a scientific report, or that millions of our citizens are so poorly educated as to consider such a production as anything beyond pop-culture entertainment.
10:48 PM on 09/06/2009
The amount of tropospheric warming caused by CO2 contributed to the atmosphere by human activity is insignificant, especially when taken in context to the amount contributed by other natural causes. That the earth will warm is inevitable - just as inevitable as the next ice age that will follow the current warming trend. Do we magnify the effect? Quite likely - but not to the degree that is being touted by those who produce doomsday global warming propaganda.

With all due respect, Mr. Kerry, don't look at just the last few decades. Read the geologic climate record. We are nearing the end of an interglacial warming cycle, and similar to those in the past, there are rapid transitions in temperature during these cycles.

The real INCOVENIENT TRUTH is that the earth has often been much warmer than it is today. Our species has arisen during times that climatically are pretty moderate when looked at in the context of earth's history. The future - that of further warming followed by another glaciation cycle is pretty much inescapable. Our fate as a species will be ruled largely by solar radition intensity, extraterrestrial impacts, supervolcanos, and viruses - all beyond our control. The negative consequences to mankind from human induced global warming and polar melting pale in comparison to what will occur from natural climate cycles and other events.
10:02 PM on 09/06/2009
==========================
In the 1960s the American Museum of Natural History had a display on the soon coming rising sea levels, with models of New York City under water. It never happened. Then in the 1970 the same climatologists claimed a global cooling was coming. It never happened.
==========================
It's no surprise that the spinmeisters would link the so-called global warming to national security.

If anyone is interested in a real national security threat, people should read-up on Electro Magnetic Pulses (EMPs). Any nation with a nuclear device can launch it in international waters; detonate it in the atmosphere over the United States and fry- most of our electrics systems.

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=3621581&c=AME&s=TOP
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Robert D. Stolorow
Founding Faculty Member, Institute of Contemporary
09:17 PM on 09/06/2009
I wonder, has anyone systematically examined the relationship between the holding of fundamentalist religious beliefs and the ignoring or the minimizing of the threat from climate change? After all, if God is looking out for us, we have nothing to worry about, right?
10:31 PM on 09/06/2009
Unfortunately, I suspect there might be a positive, statistically significant correlation. However, as a devoted Christian myself, and as a successful scientist in the field of atmospheric research, I recognize that it doesn't have to be this way. The facts, with careful, unbiased observation, show that the observed global warming is most likely substantially influenced by our greenhouse gas emissions, which are not minimal. Because it's a complex problem, it opens itself to abuse as it becomes a popular political subject. But nonetheless, the threat of climate change is clear to me. I also believe, because of my religion, that we are to be good stewards of the earth. It is unfortunate that many people who share my religious faith have taken the approach they have. God gave us a brain for a reason: to use it. We need our brains more than ever now to help keep this earth in functioning form for our future generations. I hope that this message eventually makes itself manifest even among the extreme right-wing Christians. Right now, public opinion is against global warming, but it is because of the propaganda phenomenon that has exploded, particularly on the internet and blogosphere. When I see pseudo scientists bashing some of the most respected geniuses in physics and atmospheric science on blogs, I know our world has gone crazy, like old-school Galileo times.
10:40 PM on 09/06/2009
Also, while the eastern US was cooler than normal, the rest of the globe has been near its all time high temperature this year, with the oceans beating out the strong El Nino year of 1998. It's still global warming. Climate change is a more popular word now, not because global warming has been disproved, but because there are a lot of climate changes that occur with global warming that are complex and interesting. On top of that, scientists are interested in internal variability, which can have large amplitude, over many timescales. Couple that with global warming, it's easier to call the entire field of study climate change.
10:45 PM on 09/06/2009
Sorry, that last comment about "Also, while the eastern US was cooler ..." was supposed to be in response to a different comment below. Please disregard. (I wish there was a delete button :-(
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
den1953
The National Inquire of Politics the GOP!
07:43 PM on 09/06/2009
At some point the climate won't be able to determine whether your a terrorist or just a normal person when water rises and there is no where to go does it matter who you are? Now don't get me wrong i believe that man is screwing this world up so bad it will take years & years to recover but if you have a hand full of countries that want to do something about it and the rest of the world don't care then nothing will change. Big business will not allow climate change there is just to much money in it for them to line there pockets with and the politicians are right there to so where's the recipe for success?
03:34 PM on 09/06/2009
Kerry's tired idea is to provide Mr.Gore and Wall Street a new bubble.Also,we should note the switch from "global warming" to "global change" as many areas of the US have been pretty frosty this year.Mr.Kerry wants us all to do as he says.He wants to tax everyone to death and those who don't die of taxes can freeze to death from the mandated "caps" he wants for us...even as we pay higher and higher rates.This congress and this president need to get a clue.They need to start changing their ways and stop blowing hot air.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
SShaw490
A man hears what he wants and disregards the rest
04:09 PM on 09/06/2009
America changed the government's ways last November, pal.
08:59 PM on 09/06/2009
Thanks,buddy!Now on to 2010!
07:13 PM on 09/06/2009
Guess what - itsmyparty - its my party too. Being sixteen and an idiot is forgivable but ignoring something which will cause hundreds of millions of deaths is stupid. China is planting trees and putting up windmills like there is no to-morrow which in fact there may not be. As a taxpayer I am tired of subsidizing your waste and fuel consumption. And if you don't think the taxpayer is subsidizing oil and its products then think again. The bank bailout is nothing to the cost to the taxpayer for energy. Get some insulation, wear a sweater and try walking. It is actually healthy. And given the cost of health care you might actually have to choose between fuel and food. Grow up and get a life that is not based on slave labor in a developing country. You don't want to be taxed to death. Oh my. Well I don't want to freeze to death in the dark and so I save energy. And in doing so I put other peoples lives in front of cheap energy. Coal kills. So does oil.
08:34 PM on 09/06/2009
China is currently very heavily investing in green tech and renewable energy.Far more than us.They aren't doing cap&trade.Nope.They are doing what is needed to solve the problem--not enrich a privileged few!
01:14 PM on 09/06/2009
The security threat is government's direct facists overtures to destroy the economy and the people of this great country. The fact that global warming (50 degrees last nite) is natural and all the regulating and cap and trade will not change that.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
SShaw490
A man hears what he wants and disregards the rest
01:57 PM on 09/06/2009
OK, so how about programs that will reduce the amount of commuting that Americans do via satellite offices and/or home offices, which would not only reduce CO2 emissions, but also reduce our dependence on foreign oil, increase American productivity by keeping Americans from spending so much time on the road, and reduce wear and tear on our cars? Is that a win-win? Or are Republicans opposed to that, too?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
William1950
everything I say could be wrong.
03:15 PM on 09/06/2009
our "government" is stupid... not facist. how can they be both facist and nazi's at the same time anyway?? ... the government does not want to destroy the economy and they do not want to destroy the people... they want us just where we are... working to keep the rich getting richer...
I always wonder how conservatism got to the point where they are corporatists... smaller government = super rich and a bunch of slaves ?? how is it that conservatives can justify being in the pockets of insurance companies to their own detriment?
for the record... I am not for cap and trade either... our reasons differ though, I do not see our government as some giant conspiricy... just ordinary greedy people... republicans AND democrats.
09:00 PM on 09/06/2009
You are funny :-) LOL
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
William1950
everything I say could be wrong.
11:34 AM on 09/06/2009
so if we accept the "fact" ... then we ought to declare a "war on carbon" .. and then we can attack china, india the whole continent of south america .. russia... and we can end our econometrics.. meaning we must put an end to corporatism as it stands now with it's world domination and it's profit at any cost motivation. Sorporations want to make money, not only in America but around the world and they don't care who or what must sacrifice at the altar or greed... our Government is run by corporations.......... which is one reason I tend to mistrust all this anti carbon rhetoric as some scientific fact.. when we can read just as many "fact leading against the idea... the only "fact is that we do not know what causes climate change... or climate cycles..
one thing I do know is that we have lost our way somewhere... we have let the self centered and greedy determine our whole way of life... everything is about money.
Somehow I don't think it ought to be.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ariveria
10:35 AM on 09/06/2009
no wonder the conservatives/republicans want to do nothing it is another new war for them to fight. bush spent 7 years fighting terrorists. not to win the war but to scare the american people

now the conservative/republicans can do nothing to stop global warming and have another war to scare the american people.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ClarcKing
Citizen
10:21 AM on 09/06/2009
Senator Kerry, the economic collapse of the United Sates ought to be a national security concern.The citizenry needs protection executives from the monetary financial derivative debt based global economic killing machine. Every state in the Union is bankrupt, unemployment in the millions with millions more to follow. Do you have a job mobilization project ready to activate? If the United states does not implement economy formation measures the U.S. economy will stop functioning. A threat to the population as all out war. As per Lyndon LaRouche: put the Fed into bankruptcy protection, get the bailout trillions back, banks that qualify will join the U.S. National Bank. Credits and currency will be issued into the population's physical economy. Reconfigure the stimulus plan. Jobs and purchasing power will be introduced into the economy. Stop the foreclosures; enact the Homeowners and Bank Protection Act. Stop the perpetual war policy; Afghanistan is a trap. Terminate the HMO system; re-enact the Hill Burton general hospital system. Confront the economic, production, and population contraction policy; food, water and energy production must be maintained at present levels and increased via infrastructure projects. What are our priorities? What are we waiting for?
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
SShaw490
A man hears what he wants and disregards the rest
07:45 AM on 09/06/2009
Great post, John. But as I understand the provisions of the proposed cap and trade legislation, it's inadequate in scope and it's probably politically untenable to make it stronger because then we can't get it passed (sounds a little like the health care reform issue, eh?).

But there's a better way - a drive toward reduced driving. Automobiles emit CO2 also, just like coal fired power plants, and reducing US driving by 20% would have a substantial impact. But how do you do that? By encouraging people to stop commuting 60 miles round trip every day to go to an office and sit behind a computer. Encourage satellite offices by increased broadband technology that can link people - even with video - across the country. Offer corporate tax breaks for those companies with active satellite office/home office plans. Build more public transporation. ENFORCE SPEED LIMITS for crying out loud. Use tax incentives to encourage people to drive high mileage cars (which would also be a shot in the arm for the auto industry).

This is an effective, politically winning topic. Who doesn't like the idea of not driving so much and saving all that imported oil? To heck with the current cap and trade stuff - exchange that for some health care votes and change gears on energy to "stop driving your cars."
09:02 PM on 09/06/2009
Letting folks work from home via computer is just good sense.Hence,doesn't stand a chance!
07:27 AM on 09/06/2009
How can anyone still be buying into this?
12:41 PM on 09/06/2009
How can anyone still be ignoring this?
08:37 PM on 09/06/2009
The problem has been not only politicized in this country--but is being used as yet another way to enrich the few at the expense of the many.
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Norge
Rolf K. Artist, worker of metal, writer of poems
05:54 AM on 09/06/2009
Your "Skull and Bones" club more than likely has that issue in the coffins.
03:05 AM on 09/06/2009
Americans will always be the worse polluters. It is just their lifestyle to over consume. When I pick up my kid from school and see these overweight moms sitting in their SUVs with the engine running to power the AC I think of how my friends and I back them when I still lived lin Europe turned our engines off at red light to pollute less. I heard Japanese do that too, I still do that 20 years later.
Gasparilla
there is no clean coal
04:53 PM on 09/06/2009
Doesn't it use almost as much to restart the engine after a couple minutes. I think maybe the best thing is put it in nuetral.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Daimon
06:09 PM on 09/06/2009
Or better get rid of the car and have the kids walk to school.
09:21 PM on 09/06/2009
Don't see why it would.