What's going on? Why do so many Americans support the preservation of the filibuster?
Research shows that most Americans don’t fully understand the filibuster. Yet, in poll after poll, sizable majorities of Americans say they support it. A new national poll released by Time Magazine, for instance, says that Americans support the filibuster by a wide margin of 59% to 22%. In late March, Newsweek’s national poll produced a similar result: Americans support the filibuster by a margin of 57%-32%.
So what is going on? How can Americans feel so strongly about a parliamentary rule they don't fully understand?
The answer in a nutshell: “because of George W. Bush.”
President Bush is making a majority ot Americans very nervous about his plans for our federal courts, particularly the Supreme Court, and they are looking for any and all ways to slow him down. Well, not all Americans, Republicans are cheering for their guy.
First, a little primer on conducting polls during the current polarized environment of the Bush era: Turn on CNN and MSNBC and you will be inundated with poll results from national surveys that ask Americans’ opinion on a variety of issues in the news. While these polls serve some purpose, they very seldom tell the full story.
What most media polls don't tell us are the differences in how Democrats, Republicans, Independents, liberals and conservatives view key issues, This matters, because the country is increasingly polarized in the way we look at President Bush, his signature policies, and the people close to him. Republicans and conservatives have remained remarkably loyal to the President, while Democrats and liberals are skeptical of almost everything he proposes.
This leaves self-identified independents and moderates as the political “tie breakers” in today’s American political scene. They tip the balance in favor or against the president and thus are the ultimate swing constituency. And they are very nervous about the president's judicial intentions.
As an example, it’s worth looking at the details of polling on the filibuster. In a recent national survey that my company conducted for People for the American Way, we found, like Newsweek, that 57% of all Americans – “red” and “blue” – support the preservation of the filibuster. But dig a little deeper and you’ll find that there is more to this story: 74% of Democrats are supportive as are 59% of independents and 66% of moderates! These are very big numbers -- and additional results in the poll explained the results.
We asked Americans whether they thought President Bush's nominees to the Supreme Court "will be more conservative than you would like, not conservative enough, or about right?" 41% of all Americans said the Bush nominees would be more conservative than they would like while 13% said the nominee would not be conservative enough. And what about Independents and moderates? 47% of moderates believe the nominees will be too conservative, while only 10% believe the nominee will not be conservative enough. 50% of independents believe the nominees will be too conservative, while only 10% believe the nominee will be too conservative. By any polling standards, these are decisive margins and reveal considerable anxiety.
And there is more. Overall, by margins of 48-37%, Americans want President Bush to appoint a new Supreme Court Justice who will vote to uphold Roe versus Wade. But if you take Republicans out of the equation, who by margins of 46-39% want Roe overturned, you find the following results: Democrats support upholding Roe by 57-30%, Independents support it by 48-31% and moderates support upholding Roe by margins of 56-27%.
Again, these are very decisive margins and they help us explain why Americans so strongly support the filibuster. The filibuster has become a stalking horse for their growing anxiety about President Bush's intentions on the courts. The country is with the Forces of Light.