The Nightmare VP Debate Scenario: Biden, Beware! (Update: Nightmare Averted!)

NOTE: The post-debate update appears below the original post. But first things first, here's the original:

Let me preface this by saying how much I hope I'm wrong. And there are many reasons I might be, so that's good. But consider...

Palin has become a national laughingstock by flailing her way through "getting to know you" questions about her background and her knowledge of issues she doesn't know much about. Many people are anticipating more of the same at tonight's debate.

But debate questions are different: they don't ask what the candidate knows about an issue, they ask how the candidate would handle the issue, what policy approach they support. To good Democrats, this may seem like a subtle distinction: after all, how can you explain your policy if you can't explain the issue? But that's exactly the kind of thinking that causes Democrats to lose debates to much less knowledgeable foes. "Winning" this kind of debate is not about demonstrating you're smarter than the other guy/gal, or even that you'd pursue better policies. The swing voters you're trying to win over don't follow politics closely, and by definition don't have strong preferences for the policies of one side or the other. Winning the debate is about connecting with them emotionally, showing them that you like people like them and that you're tough enough for the job.

So what does a good debate answer sound like? Start with that emotional connection: tell a story about how the issue you were asked about affects regular people, either something you heard on the trail, or better yet something personal. Ideally, you spend most of your 90 seconds here, because this will hold voters' attention and convey that you care. Don't have a good specific story? Just talk with some feeling about how and why people care about the issue. The point here is to demonstrate that you share voters' concerns.

Only after you've won their hearts do you answer the question - at least, sort of. Start with a few words of general principle that no one could disagree with. This makes you look sympathetic and strong, the candidate of common sense. Then offer a couple lines about specific policies that would further those aims, just enough so no one accuses you of dodging the question. Tack on a dig at your opponent to put them on the defensive, and you're done.

Does Palin have folksy stories? You betcha. Can she memorize a few talking points about each of the dozen issues she might get asked about? Sure thing. Can she deliver a barbed line mischaracterizing her opponents? No doubt.

Not only do standard debate questions work in Palin's favor, she's also helped by a regimented debate format, because unlike in the wide-ranging interviews she has flubbed, there is usually much less room for follow-up questions to try to pin her down. Put all this together and you see it was no fluke that Palin did well in her gubernatorial debates.

So what would happen if Palin did okay, or even a little better than okay, in tonight's debate? First of all, relative to prevailing expectations, it would be a triumph. The story would be how well Palin did, which could get people thinking maybe they had underestimated her, which could imply maybe they had underestimated McCain. Given the attention this matchup will receive, that might even be enough to nudge the momentum back their way.

But Palin won't be alone under the lights: Joe Biden and Gwen Ifill will be there too. When you imagine their reactions, the scenario gets even more interesting.

First of all, Joe. Biden is a smart guy, and I like him a lot, but there is a reason he has never quite made it out of the middle of the pack of presidential contenders. He often seems to want to wow people, and tries a little too hard. He puts on a show, saying things like "Ladies and gentlemen..." and flashing his great toothy grin - sometimes even grinning when he's talking about war and terrorism and suffering. As many have recognized, this could prove disastrous: if he goes after Palin, he risks coming off as overbearing, obnoxious, a high-handed know-it-all. Reasonably enough, many people have said Biden should just remain composed and respectful, answer the questions and engage Palin as little as possible.

The problem is that this disengagement strategy is premised in part on the idea that Palin is a ticking time bomb: that all Biden has to do is stay out of her way and she'll eventually get a question she can't handle and self-destruct. But what if she doesn't? What if , midway through, Palin is doing okay, or better than okay? If you're Joe Biden, are you going to just sit there and let her play you to a draw - or beat you? On the biggest stage Biden has ever been on, is he going to let himself get shown up by someone everybody knows is an idiot? Or does Biden get agitated, and start looking for opportunities to attack, to pin Palin down, to put her in her place? If Biden stops playing it safe, all bets are off. He might be brilliant, but things might also go horribly wrong.

There's also another interesting subplot to watch tonight too: Gwen Ifill. First Charlie Gibson and then Katie Couric greatly enhanced their professional reputations by conducting respectful but revealing interviews with Palin. If Palin has her answers ready, and Ifill just follows standard debate protocol, Palin could come through unscathed - even though everyone knows she doesn't understand most of the issues she'll be asked about. Does Ifill want to be known as the first national TV journalist to let Palin get away with bluffing her way through? Or will Ifill exercise more Russert-like discretion and try to pin Palin down?

The press has already done a remarkable job exposing Palin as anything but the reformer she was billed as, and has decisively established that she is not ready to be VP. But while this debate could turn out to be the final nail in her coffin, we misunderestimate her at our peril - just like we once did with another intellectually challenged governor, George W. Bush.

POST-DEBATE UPDATE: Phew. So how did it unfold last night? Very well, is how.

Palin, for her part, showed up pretty well-prepared. She had studied hard enough that she did not screw up anything obvious, at least nothing she was immediately caught on. (When Palin mistakenly called General McKiernan General McClellan, Biden might have said "I believe you're talking about General McKiernan, who commands our forces in Afghanistan..." but he missed it or let it pass.)

But though she didn't blow it big-time, she spent the whole night noticeably tense, working hard to come up with the answers. This limited her ability to do what she does best: her folksy down-home thing. She had a few good kitchen-table riffs at the beginning, turning on the smile and the charm as she recommended that Americans need to prevent these kinds of financial crises by saving more (which sounds wholesomely common-sensy until you realize that means giving more of our hard-earned money to the financial professionals who just tanked the stock market).

But that was as close to the nightmare as we ever got. Biden did not excel rhetorically during the opening section on economic policy, but he stayed calm, patient and friendly through Palin's volleys of charm. And before anything got out of hand, Ifill shifted the terrain to foreign policy. With that, Palin had to work even harder, and found many fewer opportunities to be charming. Biden was confident, even fierce at moments, but stayed very respectful, smiled at all the right moments, and steadily refused to overplay his hand.

By the time the ground shifted back to domestic policy, Biden knew that even if she didn't fall on her face, he had made his point: that only one of the people on stage looked ready to be President. He was even able to tug at some heartstrings himself, referencing the terrible accident that killed his first wife in a moment of real, powerful emotion, and connecting that to people's struggles to raise their children in trying times. It was, as David Gergen said, the best debate performance of his career.

Palin helped herself too: though she struggled and stumbled here and there, she was not caught flat-footed the way she had been in her recent Couric interviews. With the public expecting disaster, she cleared the bar easily. But she did not recapture the magic of her initial introduction. She was more guarded and tense, less confident. She did not produce any of the kind of sharp one-liners that she had read so effectively from the teleprompter at the convention. She had her moments of folksy charm, talking to Americans at home, but they were too few and too tepid. She had none of the funny barbed attacks on the cultural elite that had made her seem so appealingly sassy, and the tepid attacks she tried fell flat, according to CNN's undecided voter dial group. (One wonders if the Obama campaign had done a better job of calling out her lying in the few days before her convention speech, whether she might have been received more skeptically at the convention.)

Maybe more important in the long run, watching her last night, the prospect of her becoming President still seemed pretty unsettling, I'd suspect even for conservatives. A lot of people are generally willing to roll the dice on a bumbling regular person as President. In the wake of eight unhappy years of Bush, and with the economy threatening to melt down, that is a lot less appealing right now. Whatever she did last night on the charm front, she did very little to reassure America she had the necessary gravitas or a competent grasp of the issues.

All in all, this debate echoed the first Obama-McCain debate: the Democrat was confident, smiling, happy to be there but stern and tough when the moment called for it. The Republican was tense, fumbling for the answers, never rising above standard riffs, and inspiring little confidence.

There may still be a game-changer in this race, and I definitely expect a few more hail-Marys from the Rovian schemers behind the McCain-Palin campaign. But this debate was not a game-changer.

Phew!

Update update: Peggy Noonan thinks the nightmare scenario actually unfolded, minus Joe flipping out. But maybe she's just pretending, to make up for her initial dis of Palin back when. Interesting to see the other spin though.

Comments

[Ovis]

BB is right, thank God for the second amendment. These enemies of the state need to be stopped at all costs.

[JBDial]

Your post debate analysis is intersting... I read your pre-debate post AFTER the debate and as I read it, I was thinking check, check, check as in what you feared would happen, happened exactly that way. It's funny how in your biased mind, you twisted the results to be what you wanted instead of what actually happened. Re-read your original pre-dabate post and be honest with yourself and you will realize your worst fears came true. Did you hear the results of the various focus groups of the undecided? Hmmmmm....

[cblmc]

DO YOU HONESTLY THINK THAT IF MCCAIN/PALIN WON IN NOVEMBER, THAT MCCAIN WOULD EVEN TALK TO HER? SHE WOULD BE SO ISOLATED.......HE WOULD ONLY CONSULT WITH HIS CRONIES NOW LIEBERMAN AND THE OTHERS. ...BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR GOV!

[NamvetPR]

The problem is not McCain consulting her, the problem is McCain dying and she becoming the President, which would mean that her husband and her church would also be in charge. That's the problem. And please, don't yell at us, toggle off the caps lock.

[TN]

Remember when palin said on the campaign trail, before they cut her mike off, the govt. had to take over fannie and freddie because they were becoming to costly to the govt. WTF?

Or what about in the couric interview she said that the Bailout was going to shore up the Healthcare. WTF?

McCain picks a blank slate, to hold the second highest position in our govt., in a time of crisis, that has no basic knowledge of any political, financial or international current circumstance of the United States.

Anyone who votes for this ticket is seriously lacking in understanding of what is going on in the world around them.

[Mull]

So Biden has to appear presidential, and Palin has to make it to...sassy. Well, they both did what they needed to do and voters will understand that 'sassy' doesn't make it at this time in our history. Wonder what the Founding Fathers would think?

[Greygolla]

Sarah is having a fun time. Good deal that Biden guy didn't get on her case personally, when it is really her ticket's fault. Yes indeed, flack ain't her fault, it's on account of that fellow that invited her on this adventure cruise with the pirate crew. Shades of the Ancient Mariner, how did she wind up with that old buzzard around her neck?

[KarateKid]

It is so sad, and an indictment of the people in this country, that expectations were so low that a mediocre debate performance is considered a success. This is for all the marbles, not a high school debate contest, and all they talk about are her winks, her "charm" and "folksy" sayings.

The people all over the world must be getting more nervous than we are that these empty suits COULD become Pres/VP of the most powerful nation in the world.

[oldfart1]

Right on. Bush-Cheney was not an accident, and McCain-Sarah is not an accident. The war is not an accident, nor the credit crisis either.

The American people have done this to themselves. The Germans brought Hitler on themselves, and they paid for it. Today they are a different country.

What will it take to make Americans change?

[Lolly]

Actually, it's too bad this isn't run as a high school debate, which is much more strict about sticking to the topic and using evidence. The judges in a serious debate would probably have disqualified her for her bizarre flirting, winking, and non-answers.

[kathy4change]

Be careful what you wish for. The selection of Sarah Palin was politically expedient - a woman in the White House - but not the best qualified candidate. Is it more important to have a woman as President or Vice President than it is to have a person who supports women's rights as President or Vice President? Reminds me of the nomination of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court in 1991. This appointment was made because he was an African American - not the best qualified candidate. It did not matter that Clarence Thomas was about as far-right conservative as one can get. In 17 years, Clarence Thomas has never cited the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment in any of his decisions. He votes with the conservative faction of the Supreme Court time and again - he votes against everything that would further civil rights in America.
My point is that if you vote for Palin just because you want a woman in the White House - Just know what you are getting. Like Clarence Thomas, she is clearly not the best qualified, she does not support women's rights and I believe that in a position of authority as President or Vice President, she will do all in her power to halt and even erode all progress women have made on equality. So again, I repeat - Be careful what you wish for.
Joe Biden is better qualified, supports women's rights and will continue to support legislation that

[lifebylisa]

How can one not think of Palin's "golly gee's" as patronizing, condescending. She wanted the opportunity to speak to the American people, but she spoke as if we were 3. The slight drop in the polls, hmmm, the only drop I've been seeing recently in the National polls would be McCain slipping from 44 to 42. Politicians are known for exaggerating, but I have more respect for someone who speaks to me as an adult than talking down. It may have been cute for her years ago, but by her age, most have grown some substance. Maybe check out a class on body language, as 90% of our communications are done through "body language". Heavy sighs, constant swallowing, it seemed like holding her breath from time to time, none of those relate confidence, sincerity, add to that the immaturity shown by winking, smiling at inappropriate times, and from what I've seen except for Peggy Noonan, show that she didn't do all that well. That type of behavior will not be well received throughout the world, in regions that already see women as 2nd class. We've worked to hard to promote women to let this BIMBO drag us all back to square one. Check in 2 years from now to let us know how you're doing, if for some unforsaken reason, people elect this team of "Mavericks". Golly gee, won't be feeling so sorry for ya then.

[grumpkin]

What is it about this "folksy" crap that supposedly connects her to "middle America." I find it belittling and vulgar. She was winking at me!! I'm a 61 year old woman who voted Republican all her life until 2004 when I guess you could say "I found the LIGHT". And I've endured, like everyone else, the last eight years of a man who can't string 5 words together in an intelligent sentence. Now I'm being subjected to a woman who thinks "betcha and gotcha" are perfectly suitable words to use in a vice presidential debate! I'm sorry but I demand better than that! I don't want mediocrity in the White House. I don't want an old man with a cute young thing waiting on the sidelines as representatives to the world of what America stands for! I don't know if Obama/Biden can do the job but I do know that McBush/Palin can't. And guess what......so does the world!

[tsat]

Amen.

[tsat]

You are so right.

[belinda65]

Peggy Noonan sounded as rehearsed as Palin when she exclaimed; "She killed, she killed." I bet Noonan wrote her Palin victory speech that morning in her office and pitched it to her mirrored reflection for emphasis, too. Did she even watch the debate?Oh, Peggy so "Sarah Palin engaged with the public, while Joe Biden....well, he was just talking about Joe Biden...?" Ms. Noonan, what Kool Aid did you drink? Thank God to the CNN poll that proved that 56% of independent viewers thought otherwise and killed your Palin battle cry. Once again, The WSJ journal proves that, unlike The Economist, its editorial board will go down in flames for the GOP. Peggy, go interview Sarah Barracuda about the commodities/ futures act! Yeah, I betcha, she'll kill ya! Like Sarah, like Peggy. Palin "answered" questions about Pakistan, Afghanistan and health care financing by "tellin' us that Alaska has oil" -- Noonan delivered her trite "thumbs up Sarah, Thumbs down, Joe." - pre-fab monologue. Both of them, second rate actors.

[NoNotAgain]

This is a shout to Evoxx.Tell McSame to give back the money he caused this country with
The Keating Five. ( the Savings and Loan Scandal )He blew the whistle on his friend Keating to save his skin, after he pursued the friendship. Remember, may be this is what he is good at. Remember during the
Repubs Convention He stated that he broke. may be he meant ( the 30 propaganda message he
recorded for the enemy.) Those who live in glass houses should not throw stones Evoxx.

May be you don'y remember but thousands lost their life savings in this scandal.
And I stand to be corrected to think, that the Bush Boys were involved also. please Goggle all that I had said. Remember the glass house.

[Star2000dancer]

Palin has learned the trick of not answering the question, being ctesy to get away with it, and gave a dismal but enthisiastic debate last nite. She has worked her way up the ladder with bullshit & smokescreens to cover her ignorance.

What scares me is the people who thought that babble meant anything. Not to mention how many lies I caught her in. This woman is a charming trinket who uses every trick in the book to daze & confuse people so they think she knows what she's talking about.

I am shocked at the amount of people she fooled, & terrified she could get this far with her car salesman IQ. Hey, how's that bridge to no where going?

[margardner]

I think after last nights performance, Sarah Palin would be great on "The View."

[jules233]

I'm thinking she could take Vanna White's place (if Vanna wanted to retire or do something else) on "Wheel of Fortune", or she could be one of the "lovely assistants" on "The Price is Right"

[SharkGirl]

I find it amazing how two sides of a story can be tipped towards one side, depending on who is telling the story. When you read the Democrat's interpretation of the VP debate, you would think Palin was the one less knowledgeable.

When you read the Republican's interpretation, they saw Biden as the loser.

I am an Individual voter that, for the most part, was undecided who I would vote for. If the Constitution Party ever got their act together, I would vote for them, but they left me no choice this year than to go back to the drawing board.

Last nights debate was the final event I needed in order to make a decision. I support Palin, and unless anyone can show McCain or Palin are affiliated with Skull & Bones or Bohemian Grove, they have my vote now.

What really REALLY shocked me was that Biden said his team loves Israel and does not support homosexual marriages. Palin obviously caught that same shock I did too. Obama's church blatantly speaks hatred against Jews and Whites. How could Biden say they support Israel?

Obama's site supports gay marriages. He even created one of his symbols in support of them. Yet, Biden says the Obama team is against gay marriages.

I think Obama's team is going flip-flop on issues based on who they want to impress.

So, Obama and Biden love Israel and do not support gay marriages. How are the Democrats going to explain this one away?

[ldjfm]

SharkGirl,

Let me preface my post by saying that I am neither a Republican nor a Democrat. I always vote on the person who I feel is best to lead the country at the time.

In reference to your question about how could Biden say they support Israel after Obama's pastor "speaks hatred against Jews and Whites", my priest/religion teaches a value system based on guilt. My priest is against pre-marital sex and homosexuality.

Just because I have been a Catholic and in the same churches my entire life does not mean that I believe the same to be true.

While I am a married heterosexual, I do not believe that pre-marital sex or homosexuality is a sin. I also do not believe that my getting into heaven is based on whether or not I have "confessed my sins" to a priest.

What Obama says about gay marriage is that he doesn’t believe in them morally; however, that is not for the government to decide. Obama says it is up to the individuals and their clergy and that government should stay out of this issue as this is a moral issue, not a Constitutional issue. What Obama does say, is that same sex partners must be able to have the same benefits (healthcare, hospital visitation, wills, etc.) that a heterosexual married couple has.

Where are the flip-flops you have mentioned, as I don’t see them?

[Diogenis]

You sadly and and with arrogance show that you know nothing about your "Catholic" faith. Do you even read Holy Scripture? Do you understand what Holy Tradition is, the Canon Law of the Church? I am am not a Roman Catholic, yet, as a theologian I know very well what the foundation of the Christian Faith is. To say that your priest is against pre-marital sex and homosexuality is immature and ignorant on your part. What do the Holy Scriptures say? What do the Holy Canons of the Ecumenical Council say? If any "Christian" clergyman is in favor of same sex partners or same sex marriage, or pre-marital sex, then he is preaching a "wordly gospel" and not the Gospel of the New Testament. I ask, how can you call yourself Catholic?

[tsat]

SharkGirl - Keep watching Fox. I'm sorry that it is too late to help you.

[old lady]

Dear Sharkgirl
You've obviously ceded responsibility for your life to the quirky hand of a higher authority, be it God or GOP. How sad not to have spent equal time increasing your intellignece and a sense of involvement with your own life and brains. Consider Palin's church run by a witchchasing witch doctor - and her own televised involvement in bizarre ritual - before throwing your Limbaugh litany of lies out in the ether.
Get a Life Girl.

[goldnchyl]

Stop trippin'

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/church.asp

[christabor]

Ruddy was right when he said Sarah destroyed Biden in the debate. Only the bias liberal media could find a way to spin it as a Biden victory. Complete and total domination. Thank God its the american people who elect the President and they see through the phony face lift, botox and hair plugs. They know its all bull when Biden says he cares about the average man. Look at his tax returns, Joe cares about Joe.

[lbolle]

Go eat your sour grapes somewhere else. P al in was a joke last night. More power than C hen ey? I don't think so. White flag of surrender? And how is their ticket different than the current administration?

[christabor]

How is Barack Obama any different than Jimmie Carter?

They are definitely just like Bush in one way, they are going to beat the democrats.