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Spare Me Your Exits Polls
The sideshow of the '08 primary campaign has been the endless media vivisection of how each subset of the electorate has broken for a particular candidate. The urban vote. The second generation Hispanic vote. The rural white vote with non-secondary education. How are older Catholic women voting?
The numbers are picked over like a Beatles LP from back in the day by "experts" looking for any bit of hidden meaning which ultimately -- like Paul's death -- might not be genuine.
It has become an obsession, and as with any obsession it is unhealthy. The conclusions drawn from these excavations usually reflect the media's own bias. After the Georgia primary where Obama pulled well among white male voters there seemed to be in the news collective dismay that the good ole boys would vote for the colored man. This, never mind Atlanta had its first black mayor back in 1974. There was no reason except prejudice to assume Obama couldn't pull a good portion of the white vote.
But with each round of voting the media echo chamber tends to magnify the disparities of each subset. Again and again we are told the black vote has abandoned the Clintons, older white women don't connect with Obama. This repetition breeds resentment; how dare "those people" not support my candidate? In short order our own opinions about those who abandon and those who refuse to connect calcify into animosity, making it hard for us to see the "other" candidate as potentially "our" candidate. It makes it all the more difficult when each candidate is publicly pushed and prodded as to why they are failing among a certain class of voter, and their response is then loaded with an unfortunate adjective: bitter or clinging or hard working (as opposed to that other group that doesn't work so hard).
There's an argument to be made there is news value to the continual crunching of the numbers.
There's an argument to be made there's value to the endless reporting of with whose stolen coat Lindsay Lohan is trotting around.
Clearly the candidates and their operatives have to be cognizant of their strengths and weakness within segments of the electorate.
For the rest of us it's enough to know who's winning and who's losing.
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Watch "Hacking Democracy" for why we need exit polls.
I don't want to sound 'age' biased towards these media guys/gals & even politicians, but some of them that are over 40 are living in the past when it comes to this issue. This country has become so diverse when it comes to race, class etc. Most communities in this country are ethnically diverse now. I wish they were more so and less "clanish". Maybe I'm just a PollyAnna, because I am of mixed racial descent and I don't see the color of a persons skin.
Anyway, Hillary was my candidate, but it wasn't because she's a woman like me. And its certainly has nothing to do with my race and or even financial earning power now; which is much higher. It's because of her 'experience' & policies for me. Yes, she was wrong on her vote for the authorization to go to war, but I wasn't reading the 'cooked' intelligence, so I can not hold that against her. John Kerry voted for it was well; and he's no war monger. I respect Obama's position on it; but what would he have done if he viewed the intelligence at the time basically a year after 9/11? I can tell you what he thought of Donald Rumsfeld & most Bush appointees in January 2001 when he wasn't even a U.S. Senator. We all make mistakes in terms of 'judgement'. He's no saint. See below:
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4216276
Obama would not have voted for the war and was one of the first out to that was against it. There were other democrats that ACTUALLY looked at what they were signing and did not vote for the war. Your thoughts are not lucid.
There is no way I would put a woman that stood in the faces of the american people and lied not once but 3 times. I would not let a man walk back in the white house after being inpeached and also lied in the faces of the american people. Please do not in your lucid thoughts try to justify the Clintons to anyone.
What if Obama picks a VP that voted for the war & is on the side on continued funding? What would you say then?
How did we as a party allow this to happen to us? The Republicans stay on message, they don't allow the media to frame their message. Their message is fear, national security, no taxes. In this primary we have allowed them to separate us by race; they have knocked us off our most important message of being an inclusive party. And, sadly both candidates have allowed it to happen for the purpose of 'winning'.
Anyway, when I think of what it means to be 'blue-collar', I naturally think of the base of the party which my family belongs too (mom/dad); I think of all races which is comprised of the lower to middle class. My dad was a mechanic until he retired, he's not white. The 'blue collar' voters in this country are made up of all races; its about finances!!!
I'm not sure but I think the reference to 'collar' comes from the type of shirt one wears to work. "White" collar = White collar buttoned down shirts & ties. Blue Collar is a reference to what people used to wear to work in this country when it actually had a manufacturing base; i.e blue factory work shirts. I actually think that some of the old school pundits actually still believe that there is still a blue collar manufacturing base in this country (which they perceive still as soley white, which is a joke). When was the last time that was accurate; 40-50 years ago?
Geez, Earl. I didn't see you arguing against polls(exit or otherwise) when they had your gal way out ahead.
Whassup with that?
Sorry--I meant John...
I oppose EXIT polls. Because they break them down into age, gender, race and religion. Polls I don't mind when they just give overall poll numbers and make NO mention of someone's religion, race etc.
The Democratic Party has allowed the media (which goes with which way the wind is blowing at the moment) to reframe their message from being an inclusive party and quite frankly have now painted it as a 'racist' party for their own greedy rating wars. Thats what I find despicable. That separates us.
John I saw you holding it down on Morning Joe. It was good to hear you speak with conviction and not cave in to Joe's opinions . I was touched by the story you shared in which your son turned to you and asked if the speaker on tv was Obama or Dr. King. WOW it sent chills down my spine, how beautiful!
I get sick of the MSM's assumption that Hillary voters won't vote for a black guy. I like Obama, but I'm not going to assume that Hillary voters won't vote for the democrat because he is black, and I don't assume they are just voting for her because they are racist.
We need exit polls as the ONLY check on election fraud we have.
But all we need for that is the totals.
I'll second that.
Given the fraud in 2000 and 2004, we should be ready to take to the streets if results turn out vastly different from exit polls.......
The Democrats themselves are too damn spineless to protest clear and outright fraud.... what goes there? the NSA have enough dirt on everyone to blackmail them into silence?
The media need exit polling data for their campaigns.
It helps them decide which candidates to oppose or marginalize, and how to do it.
Uselessboy,
"marginalize' is the perfect word. Chris Matthew's and his sexist comments from 'day one' have 'marginalized' HIllary Clinton as a woman and as a candidate. He has always been a Clinton basher since the last ratings/ad dollar drama--Monica-gate. Olberman, used a sexist comment the other night in front of Rachel Maddow, regarding Hillary Clinton. It went something like this; 'will she be pulled out of this race scratching', etc. Maddow who is an Obama supporter who I respect, cringed and was visibly uncomfortable by Olberman's description. But, I guess I expected nothing more from Olberman an ex-FOX noise sportscaster.
Now, Matthew's who had a 'tingle' up his legs for Senator Obama and has sufficiently marginalized HIlary Clinton is starting to get a 'tingle' up his legs for John McCain --the war hero. There is no such thing as objectivity anymore at all in the media. It actually never existed. What a sham!
Chris Matthews has always had a "tingle" for McCain. He's a "hero" worshipper; he fell all over himself for Rudy until his candidacy began to stink so bad he had to drop out.
Although I don't agree with everything you just said, I respect it. But I just want 2 correct you on 1 thing. Keith Olbermann worked at ESPN & not Fox Sports.
BIG "Fip Flopper"
Chris Matthew's IS A FLIP FLOPPER, when Bitter Gate Broke on Obama shortly before the PA primary, Chris Matthws kept pounding Obama because he taught that the wheels would finally come off the Obama wagon! He kept sucking up to the Clintons!
The minute Obama emerge victorious from the lates rount of primaries, he jumps back on the Obama wagon and start to pound the Clintons!!
THE FACT IS Chris Matthew's IS GOING WITH Whoever seem like the winner!! HE IS A SUCK UP!!
Please spare us the Clinton bashing. Obama as been bashed and continues to be bashed by all of MSM. I have never seen anyone bashed as badly. Clinton recover, they always do. She can sit on the porch with her mother and have some really nice days.
Well, here's a quandary for you - Oregon votes exclusively by mail - No Exit polls!!!!!!!!! What will the cable news outfits do on the 20th? Betcha they'll fall all over themselves polling folks in Kentucky, and then say the same goes for Oregon. Not! We're mostly white working class, and going to take Obama over the top!
mossy1,
I AGREE 100%!!
MY AUNT IS A White Working Class Lady in Oregon and SHE WILL BE VOTING FOR OBAMA!!
I HOPE THEY REPORT THIS Fairly!!
Obsessions?
You mean like worrying about what year Chelsea will announce her candidacy?
Yes, some are truly obsessed.
For all the Obama surrogates that call the Clinton's racists on this website do your DD. Do you actually believe that the Clinton's are racists? Are you that far removed from reality? Have you ever seen the work that Bill Clinton's foundation does all over the world and especially in Africa? My GOD!
If the Bill & Hillary Clinton were racists than they would have just sat on their hands after leaving the Whitehouse and built his library in the backwoods of Arkansas. Instead they continued their work on behalf of the poor and disenfranchised all over the world! Look at the work they are doing at his foundation's website, tell me this does not reflect the basic principles of the Democratic Party and of humanity as a whole. You people are twisted. Your candidate has won, stop bashing the reputations of these good people. It's sickening and really reprehensible.
http://www.clintonfoundation.org/index.htm
http://www.clintonfoundation.org/cf-pgm-hs-ai-home.htm
http://www.clintonfoundation.org/cf-pgm-ee-uei-home.htm
lucidthoughts. You comments put forth an excelent point. I have observed the Clintons for over 30 years. One of the first political campaigns I volunteered for was when Bill Clinton ran for Congress in 1974. There are a lot of things that can be said about the Clintons but racist is not one of them. Both Hillary and Bill Clinton have worked their whole lives to promote racial harmony and healing. They have worked tirelessly to to make a positve difference in the economic and social lives of African Americans. They have always, ALWAYS, opened their arms and hearts to people of color. That is the truth and everyone of you knows it!
Which is what makes Hillary's recent comments even more inexcusable
I think you miss the point Lucid,..Which is not that the Clinton's are racist..
In my humble opinion they are not,...
However,...
It's clear today, that the Clinton's do whatever it takes to win and hold onto power.
While they had votes of Americans of African descent, they would do just enough to hold onto that base.
However look what happened when they lost it,.. they have resorted to the same kinds of games, of the ultra-right wingers and known for, which is to mobilize and pit the middle class Americans of European descent against them, by playing on race misunderstandings and resentment.
If they were the golden people you seem to believe they are, their platform would be on projecting their goals and benefits to all Americans, not attempting to smear, spin and mislead against those of their own party to the detriment of us all, now and in the future.
We as democrats ignored the cries of foul from the Republican party in the 90s while the Clintons were on our side, but now we can see how far they go, and what their goals are, which is to win at all costs, no matter the damage to those they claim to represent.
If you call yourself a lucid thinker, you should be able to understand the rage against them, if not that, then at least be able to admit that the anger may have some basis in truth.
George Bush as also done some remarkable things in Africa. They love him there. He has done more the the Clintons have done. Yes, when the bull crap hits the fan, the Clintons played the race card. If is over as you say then please move on with your lucid thoughts.
VERY well put and needed!
And finally, Hillary Clinton and her husband, the ex-President, a great Democratic President that did so much of this country in the 1990's deserve some respect! They've battled their entire political and student lifetimes for the principles of the Democratic Party. Shame on the OLD school party elders like Ted Kennedy (who in fact created an uproar at the DNC in 1980- DAMN HYPOCRITE!!!), the media and others for treating them like garbage. Shame on all of you! Let them finish the primary season, there are only 6 left. Senator Clinton has said repeatedly that she would work for the nominee. And I think it would be wise for the Obama campaign not to pressure their surrogates all over the media to try to humiliate her into ending her campaign until its over on June 3rd. I think it would be wise for the Obama campaign to welcome the Clinton's support in the general election. Gore's biggest mistake in 2000 was keeping Bill Clinton off the campaign trail. He kept him off the campaign trail because he thought that the Lewinsky matter would ruin his chances. That was a joke. Clinton left office with the highest approval ratings ever. Al Gore lost the presidency and the rest is history.
Uh, Hillary was head of the college republicans in college, she was a "Goldwater girl". I don't really think that is battling for the "principles of the Democratic Party".
I can't believe you don't even know your own candidate's record.
Maybe you should do some research.
thebirdstheword,
She was 15 years old for Christ-sake when she was a 'goldwater' girl. Jeez, her dad was a REpublican. Give me a break. She also sat on the Committee to Impeach Richard Nixon when she was a young adult in hre 20's. How about the owner of this website that you frequent? Do you know anything at all about her political history?
You are just the type of person the media loves to bait!
Let her finish it by campaigning FOR HERSELF instead of AGAINST Obama and half of the party.
Uselessboy,
You call this a 'party"? I call it a bunch of political hacks in Washington deciding who will be the candidate without letting all the primaries finish. She's not hurting the party. She should fight as long as she wants too. HUCKABOO was behind by 700 delegates or something ridiculous like that; the Republican party didn't attack him for staying in the race and making his case heard because they knew HUCKABOO was out there campaigning against the Democratic Party and not John McCain per se; "all press is good press'. They didn't let the media manipulate their message, they didn't let the media unlike the Democratic Party turn this primary into a racially divisive mess!
Let her finish off her race. She's making the same case as Obama, on DEMOCRATIC values in this important race. If anything its more free press for Obama and the cause of the Democratic Party, healthcare, the economy etc. The same message is being spread against the Republicans. Think of the big picture!
The 'party' (run by hacks (Kennedy, Kerry etc) with back-room deals) is hurting itself. The obvious mistake by the Democratic party hacks was in last years decision not to compromise with the Florida and Michigan primary dates. The Republicans compromised, they weren't fools!
If ever there was a time in this country for a 3rd party, then this should be it!
Clintons approval rating was 60% due mainly to the devotion of the AA people. Please do not try to justify what they have done. I see it with my own eyes.
ALL THIS TALK OF RACE BY THE MEDIA SICKENS ME! It"s a shame that an ex-president is treated with such contempt & disrespect by the media and certain Obama surrogates (not all). A man that has worked for Civil and Human rights throughout his lifetime and still does with his foundation all over the world especially in Africa. It's a shame when a man like Bill Clinton who is the ONLY 1st 2 term successful Democratic President since FDR is continually treated like garbage by the media. I did very well under Bill Clinton. I couldn't get a job for 2 years after college during the remaining Bush years in office. The projectory of my career changed during the Clinton years for me as a woman and as a minority. All ethnicities did well under the Clinton economy, how soon we all forget. Like Senator Obama I am of a mixed racial background, and I am personally proud of it. All this talk of race by the media sickens me. BUT, I'm not interested in voting 'race' like the media implies. I'm interested in voting for who I think is ready to be President of the USA at this time in our history.
Old Bill was the one who said "Big deal that Obama won South Carolina, so did Jesse Jackson."
Enough said.
Thanks once again John Ridley, we appreciate your columns.
Exit polling, once exploited by all the pundits, does breed resentment. For example, since Pennsylvania, Obama supporters have been using Clinton's supposed stronghold over the "uneducated white hick voters" to say the most vulgar and unkind things about her and her supporters. Exit polls don't show that one candidate is a racist and the other is an elitist. I say we take Ridley's advice and cool it with the half-ass dissection of voter's intentions. It's brought out the worst in both Clinton and Obama camps.
We also forget that exit polls show people are more concerned about REAL issues ($$$, jobs, war, the future), but for some reason that doesn't inspire us to talk about that...
The media is soley responsible for creating this racial divisiveness for ratings, high ratings equals high ad dollars for their networks. I actually heard one anchor at CNN ask the question who will watch their network once this primary is over between Obama and Hillary, i.e. if there is no 'drama'.
They have race-baited/gender-baited both candidates during this entire campaign. Will white men vote for a woman? Will African-Americans support a white woman or a black candidate? Is Barrack black enough? They set this up from the being in New Hampshire when they implied that Bill Clinton was race-baiting with his 'fairy-tale' comment when he clearly was not. It was discussed for over a week before the S. Carolina primary. He was making a statement abut Obama's war stance and when they finally played it in context of course after S. Carolina, it wasn't a 'story' anymore.
Yes, I think Bill Clinton's statement about Jesse Jackson was stupid, but he's a politician, that loves history and was making a historical statement. But, people's sensitivities were so high after the 'fairy tale' comment and then things exploded from there. The damage was done. And now, Hilary Clinton is asked a specific question about exit polls and answers and she's painted as a racist. Meanwhile that's all we've heard from the media during this entire primary campaign, that's all I hear every-night from them, Black Vs. White exit polls whose voting for whom.
So what statement was Clinton making when she spoke of her hard working white collar workers?
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Posted May 9, 2008 | 12:41 PM (EST)