McCain in 2008 = Clinton in 2012

Allow me to do a little downbeat and wet-blanket prognosticating here, a bit of bad-boy forecasting in the "worst-case" rather than the "blue-sky" register. So get out your tea leaves and/or chicken entrails and read along with me. Please, I beg you, tell me why the following scenario won't in fact obtain--I'd love to be wrong about this. But my nagging gut, unfortunately, tells me otherwise, rebutting what my heart fancies.

Here goes: Incredibly, John McCain will win in November--despite a tanking economy, a spiraling national deficit, $4.50 summer gas prices, an ongoing "debacle" in Iraq, rampant Republican corruption, eroded civil liberties, and a campaign that promises to extend many of his predecessor's wildly unpopular policies. No matter. The Democrats will blow it. On paper, you would think that they would sail into the executive office. But the old-shoe white guy tortured war hero will defeat the upstart visionary-albeit-angry black man. Don't bet the ranch on the black guy, hoping against hope.

Plain and simple, Barack Obama won't win enough swing states. MoveOn.org can't deliver them to him. Nor can Oprah. The Clinton camp isn't going to oblige him with a sudden surge of gushing enthusiasm. For that matter, a grand post-convention rapprochement and de-embittering reconciliation between the Obama and the Clinton camps won't be happening anytime soon, even though Hillary and Bill will go through the motions, making nice for public purview, paying lip service to wishing Obama well and all that. But significant numbers--just enough where it matters--of Clintonistas, centrist Democrats, moderate Republicans, and fence-sitting Independents will peel away from risky Obama as November nears.

Obama's negatives are already rising. The McCain people and their shady surrogates will certainly compound matters by deploying every form of character assassination imaginable. Much mud will be slung, and some will stick--that's the whole point of mud slinging (memo to the above-board Obama: the technique works, don't be naive). The McCain people will surely be playing the guns, God, and gay cards--and they will be claiming that Obama has some pinko, effete, elitist, defeatist, terrorist-loving, tax-loving, ultra-liberal, anti-Pledge of Allegiance, anti-Flag-lapel-pin cards up his sleeve. Oh yes, then there's the abortion trump card, too.

Whispered insinuations will be quite enough to tip the balance. The McCain strategists will provide plenty of distractions and abundant rationalizations to convince enough white folks not to vote for a black man. Period. End of story. Alas.

Hillary knows the above. She sees the primary handwriting on the wall. She's nobody's fool. She's already looking to 2012. Thus she's now pursuing a scorched earth policy for the Democratic Party. She's denouncing the activists while belittling Obama and reserving her praise for McCain. Her current strategy betrays her clear intentions: She wants McCain to win in November (though she could never admit that publicly). She's looked at the chess board and has repositioned her pieces, plotting two or three moves ahead of the current match: McCain's winning the presidency in 2008 will virtually guarantee Clinton's winning the presidency in 2012--and then again in 2016.

McCain, she reasons, won't be a two-term president. He'll do nothing about Iraq and Afghanistan, except perhaps to dig us in deeper. He might bomb Iran's nuclear facility, or at least look the other way while Israel beats us to the punch. He will continue to support tax breaks for the rich, while doing nothing to rebuild the infrastructure of the U.S. economy. He won't be leading the way into a green future. He won't be spending his limited political capital on fixing our national health policy, our national educational policy, our national retirement policy, or even our national campaign finance policy. He'll likely need to work with a Democratic Congress--but he's not amicably collaborative by nature, and he'll blow up behind the scenes the first time he doesn't get his way.

Besides, McCain just wants to be president once. That's enough to satisfy his ego. He'll be too old and too tired for a second term (one need not be ageist against all older persons in order to conclude that McCain in particular, after a tough first term, will be too decrepit to vie for a second).

Hillary has thought this through. After becoming the Big Loser Who Couldn't Reverse Bush-ism in 2008, Barack Obama will not be the party's nominee in 2012. By then, Hillary will seem as if she deserves vindication and a second chance, and her off-putting airs of entitlement and superiority will have dissipated. For 2012, however, she won't pull an Al Gore and defer graciously to other candidates. Mark my words: She'll be running. We haven't seen the last of her presidential aspirations.

I don't know exactly what my bottom line here should be. By attending ruthlessly to Obama's obvious weaknesses against McCain in the general election, I'm not suggesting that Democrats should now drop him in favor of Clinton. Nor am I pushing the idea that the specter of a Clinton resurgence in 2012 after a McCain win in 2008 will somehow scare a good number of McCain-leaning Clinton-haters back into Obama's camp for now. I suppose the lesson is simply that the Democrats shouldn't let their wistful idealism overwhelm their savvy intelligence. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. And if you find yourself forced to choose between cynicism and stupidity, don't be stupid.

Comments

[Justtellthetruth]

I think your simply not getting it. New voters are coming out of the woodwork. The ratio of Dems to Reps that have come out for the primarys is SO lopsided towards the Dems that it is inspiring in and of itself, and that new enthusiasm is NOT for Hillary (or her twin, McCain).

You also seem convinced that

1) McCain is not ultimately vulnerable, first for the Myriad personal failings and wrong decisions that he has to answer for, not the least of which is being a member of the party that is led by a president who may leave office with one of the lowest sustained approval ratings ever.

2) somehow, Obamas CLEARLY superior political skills will suddenly fail him when confronted by a man who cannot even keep our enemies straight, who appears to need Joe Lieberman to accompany him in order to to step in when McCain falls prey to increasingly frequent senior Moments.

3) You talk in stereotypes in categorizing the candidates. It's on the border of being offensive, but lets forget that for the moment. The point is, Obama is going to leap right out of the box you try to put him in and surprise the HELL out you and the majority of voters in this nation in the General.

[SolarPowerGuy]

"Whispered insinuations will be quite enough to tip the balance."

Indeed. And the American public has been so dumbed down, they'll even react to this statement:

"Hey, do you know that Barack Obama fathered BLACK CHILDREN? Oooh, scandalous!"

[nochickenhawk]

Hillary Clinton will not get her big toe in the door of the Democratic Party in 2012 after all the bridges she has burned. You mean 2016, anyway, because Obama will be a two term president.

[Kirk59]

No way will Hillary merit serious consideration as nominee in 2012. Obama came out of nowhere to overtake her. In 2012 we will have numerous other Democrats eager to run and having zero allegience to the, by then, ancient Clinton administration. Add to that the countless enemies she has created in this election cycle and there you have it. If Obama accomplishes 1 thing, to kill the Clinton dynasty, we will owe him our gratitude. Even with a courageous loss to McCain, he may accoomplish much more. Like changing the debate in Washington and sparking a political movement-as Goldwater did in 1964-despite his huge loss to Johnson.

[frustratedinohio]

Except he hasn't changed the debate in Washington and whatever movement he has started, it won't accomplish anything.

[frustratedinohio]

It is UNF***INGBELIEVABLE how you and other Obama supporters have found a way to blame Hillary for his losing in the GE. You are damned right though about his losing, but it will be the fault of his supporters for betting on a horse who obviously can't run. You're admitting this in this post and yet it's unstoppable. Even though Hillary's supporters have been saying this for 2 months.

As for Hillary running in 2012, I hope she does and I hope she wins. It's just a shame that this country has to wait so long for real CHANGE.

[Kirk59]

We in the Obama camp have been saying Hillary can't win in the GE for 15 months. With each passing month she has done nothing but confirm our theory. She has way too much baggage, she can't be trusted, and she is a Republican. Other than that you have a great candidate.

[KPinSEA]

Well, 15 months ago I thought she could win, but the choices made during this campaign have convinced me that her negatives are higher than ever. She was a shoe-in against Giuliani, but against McCain I've got serious doubts she can win now.

She may be ready for Day 1 in the White House, but she wasn't ready for Day 1 after Iowa, and I was singularly unimpressed by her judgment from that point onward.

[bclintonk]

You may be right about Hillary's thinking---her actions are consistent with a strategy of driving wedges into the Democratic Party and setting up Obama for a loss in the general. But it's the height of arrogance to think she'll get a second chance. This was her best opportunity. And what a golden opportunity! She began as the preemptive favorite, with virtually an incumbent's advantages---name recognition, money, seemingly invincible organization, and good will from Democratic voters nostalgic for the Clinton years after 8 years in the wilderness. But she ran a horribly inept campaign, squandered every advantage, and lost to a rookie phenom before she and her flat-footed campaign realized what hit them. Now she's out to destroy the newcomer who had the audacity to take her down. No matter that it leads to a Democratic defeat in the fall, potentially up and down the ticket. The Clintons don't care about little things like keeping Democratic control of Congress, much less governor's seats and state legislatures. If the strategy succeeds in electing McCain, Hillary would begin the 2012 race with more than half the Democratic Party dead set against her, sky-high negatives, and many current backers who got on board her "inevitability" train early looking for a fresh new face to support. She wouldn't be the preemptive favorite but an improbable candidate with boatloads of baggage and none of the advantages she squandered this time around.

[CommanderWhitehead]

I agree, but for entirely different reasons.

A disaster of sorts, or an attack on US soil (real or manufactured) between now and next January...perhaps an attack on one of our navy vessels over in the Persian Gulf will likely bolster the credibility of John McCain while giving Mr. Bush a vast new array of tools with which to further whittle away our rights (Martial Law could be automatically put into play). Hell, he could actually suspend the Constitution all together, if McCain's popularity remains low, and American's fail to take the bait and jump on board the "war-wagon" (like they did before).

Think about it.
We've all watched the way they work, and we know what's at stake for them.

There is no way this Administration is going to gamble on a McCain victory in November without a "back-up plan".

No fu#king way.

[DatelessNerd]

Hillary Clinton has very little support among young voters. The kids who are currently 14-17 will be able to vote in 2012, and won't support her either. On the other end of the spectrum, Hillary will lose four years' worth of her elderly base by 2012.

As time goes on, the Clintons will continue to lose relevance. It's now or never for Hillary--that's why she's taking her fight all the way to the convention, and adopting a "scorched earth" strategy.

[TigrisLily]

I haven't the slightest doubt this has been Clinton's post Super Tuesday strategy. You give her more credit than I do, however. There will be no lip service to Obama--she will openly campaign for McCain.
If McCain wins in November--and she will be doing everything in her power to ensure his victory--Hillary has three problems facing her in 2012. First problem--the Republicans are going to make sure McCain runs with a VP candidate who will be viable in 2012--Hillary's not the only one looking to the next presidential election. Second problem--if McCain wins, there is a very good chance that the Democrats will lose the House and the Senate. Thus, Hillary will have no influence to pass any meaningful legislation that would help her in a 2012 presidential bid. Third--the only way for Hillary to win is for the super delegates to overturn the will of the people. That will cost her the support of many Democrats angry over being told that after spending hundreds of millions of dollars on primaries, the Democrats are not going to honor our votes. And it will likely destroy the party as disillusioned voters leave the party. It would take many years for the Dems to recover from such a disaster. The only thing Hillary stands to win is the wrath of the Democratic voters.

[aquaglass]

Hillary can still make president in 2008 if she continues to play her cards right.
It sure is a long shot since sexism in todays world seems more powerful than racism.
If she loses, it will be because she is a woman and no other reason, and that's pretty sad.
Experience does matter, and she is our best shot for a 1st woman president.
I advise all woman out there to vote Hillary, and put the Harry Reid's of the world out to pasture.
Shut them up!
Let's go Hillary!
Vote Hillary!

[KPinSEA]

I advise all woman out there to ignore Chinese agents seeking to generate ill-will and confusion in America ... which is the only conclusion your grammar's can lead to.

[Marlyn]

"If she loses, it will be because she is a woman and no other reason" ???

NONSENSE! I am a woman. There ARE other reasons. She is a HAWK voting for Bush and more war. She is bought and paid for by the Fascist corporations that have taken over our government and MSM. I really hate what America has become. No more! I want CHANGE!

OBAMA 08

[boomboom73]

I have yet to hear an Obama supporter articulate what kind of "CHANGE" (to use marlyn's screaming capital letters) they expect Obama to bring. Oh...and in case you haven't been following the news, Obama has also been "bought and paid for" by the same "fascist corporations" you decry.

[truesoccermom]

I she loses it will be because she is not trusted and not truthful and because over half the country has an unfavorable view of her -- nothing to do with her being a woman.

[KPinSEA]

Wow, I haven't seen this much wishful thinking since my buddy's 12-yr-old asked for a Porsche for Christmas ....

McCain will be "happy with one term" and will bow out because of age and infirmity? Ya right, the RNC will get him transfusions from sorority girls if that's what it takes to keep a Republican incumbent in the White House. Keep dreamin'.

And this, I'm afraid, is as close as Hillary is getting. Nobody is going to forget her scorched-Earth approach to campaigning over the last few months, calling everyone who fails to fall into line a Judas or an Idiot, wallowing in Rove-ian fear tactics.

All the national party will remember about Hillary in 2012 is the animosity and ill-will generated within the party in 2008 ... she'll be even more entrenched in the Senate and they'll all rationalize that it's better to keep her there and utilize her skills than fracture the party with her -- again.

[netgecko99]

Obama has been pretty clear that while he's trying to go into all-out attacks against Hillary (too bad she won't return the favor), he'll be much less restrained against McCain. I anticipate that a lot of McCain's negatives are going to come out as soon as he's the nominee.

[ceti]

If it's McCain 2008, there won't be a 2012, period. Hillary would inherit the whirlwind and she will one of the most hated people in America for having plunged the country into such darkness for her own ego.

[ianrthorpe]

You are predicting exactly what I predicted when John Edwards dropped out of the contest. Hillary has never been a figure people can warm to and once the Republican attack dogs are let loose on Barak Obama he will crumble.

I'm not saying I'm a better soothsayer than you, just that from here in the UK I can look objectively at the big picture.

I don't know if John Edwards would have made a good candidate or not, but what I did notice about him was he seemed to be the only democrat who understood the target consituency should have meed the middle to low income group regardless of colour.

http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977275305&nav=Namespace

[Marlyn]

"She's nobody's fool. She's already looking to 2012." ???

Hillary won't win in 2012 EITHER!