America's Metros -- Winners... and Nonwinners

Oil prices tripled since 2003. Sunshine for the economies of metro areas on the Gulf of Mexico. But a cloud over the metros on the Great Lakes. John McCain's solution in Detroit: more nuclear power plants. Barack Obama's: reducing energy consumption, creating green jobs. These issues aren't going away.

The 25 metro areas with the fastest growth in incomes since 2003 are concentrated in the oil-and-gas-producing states like Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi, in the financial markets of Greater New York, and in areas in California and Florida that benefited from the growth of credit through 2007. (Note: The oil-and-gas areas continue to prosper in 2008 as oil prices have held up. Credit, however, is shrinking with every bank writeoff.)

Top 25 Metro Areas: Change in Per Capita Income 2003-2007

Rank - Metro Area - 2007 PC Income $ - % Change from 2003
1New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA 46,18857.8
2Midland, TX 52,29453.4
3Naples-Marco Island, FL 61,78843.4
4Gulfport-Biloxi, MS 36,39043.2
5Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL 58,14442.7
6Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, LA 34,96640.1
7Pascagoula, MS 32,99239.8
8Odessa, TX 31,78839.2
9Jacksonville, NC 34,28239.0
10Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 34,71738.2
11Farmington, NM 29,18337.9
12Santa Fe, NM 45,23036.9
13Punta Gorda, FL 35,15136.6
14Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA 46,12036.2
15Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 80,19234.7
16Fayetteville, NC 35,35334.3
17Lake Charles, LA 33,44834.3
18Casper, WY 47,35433.5
19Lafayette, LA 36,85333.1
20Tulsa, OK 40,22732.1
21Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 46,23531.9
22Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL 48,49831.2
23San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 61,33731.1
24Napa, CA 50,81730.9
25New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 53,42330.8
Source: Annual per capita metro income data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. See this source for notes on the data for the 363 metro statistical areas. Percent changes from the State Science and Technology Institute.

The cloudy America centered on the Great Lakes includes the industrial areas of Michigan, Ohio, Illinois and Indiana, where manufacturing jobs are losing out to Chinese, European, Japanese and other competitors - compounded by the damage to heavy industry of higher oil costs. The low increase in Merced, CA metro per capita income appears to result from the influx of new immigrants with incomes below the area average. A number of well-known university towns are included in these nonwinning metros.

Bottom 25 Metro Areas: Change in Per Capita Income 2003-2007

Rank - Metro Area - 2007 PC Income $ - % Change from 2003
339Saginaw-Saginaw Township North, MI 29,30411.8
340Springfield, OH 30,47111.8
341Danville, IL 27,15311.7
342Jackson, MI 28,99611.6
343Bay City, MI 30,23211.5
344Dover, DE 29,04710.9
345Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, WA 30,32510.9
346Muncie, IN 28,77210.8
347Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 39,41910.7
348Morristown, TN 25,44610.5
349Rockford, IL 30,50710.4
350Muskegon-Norton Shores, MI 27,24010.4
351Sandusky, OH 35,1879.7
352Merced, CA 23,8649.7
353Kankakee-Bradley, IL 29,0249.6
354Ann Arbor, MI 41,2339.4
355Anderson, IN 29,9129.1
356Janesville, WI 30,9909.1
357Monroe, MI 33,1679.0
358Bloomington-Normal, IL 34,8328.7
359Mansfield, OH 28,2417.9
360Kokomo, IN 33,2307.1
361Flint, MI 29,3475.1
362Champaign-Urbana, IL 31,9312.0
363Springfield, IL 36,2291.8
Source: Same as Top 25.