President Bush's response to the Turkish Parliament's quasi-declaration of war against the 3,000+ outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rebels in northern Iraq was muted because he needs Turkey as much as the other way round. However, further Turkish forays into Iraq to attack PKK camps would immensely complicate the war in Iraq, not to mention contribute to destabilizing the entire region. Only one thing might give Turkey pause.
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is as friendly a Prime Minister as the United States could hope for in a 99 percent Islamic country in the fifth year of an Iraq war that has helped PKK separatists to build up their numbers in the north and to attack and kill many Turks near the border.
Back on March 20, 2003, when the United States invaded Iraq, Erdogan asked the Turkish Parliament to allow U.S. troops to drive through to Iraq. Parliament said no. A State Department official said this vote was a "low point" for U.S.-Turkish relations, although Turkey has allowed the United States to move an enormous volume of supplies via Incirlik Air Base. But for many Turks, the low point was four months later when U.S. forces -- from Turkey's perspective -- dissed Turkish soldiers and civilians serving in Iraq. These events were the basis for a Turkish TV series and then a hugely popular (in Turkey) anti-American movie, Valley of the Wolves Iraq. The sentiments stirred up by this movie seem now to be playing themselves out in Turkish politics.
Relations were looking better last year when a U.S.-Turkish partnership was mapped out based on a shared vision and dialog. But the over-stretched U.S. military and the Kurdish administration in oil-rich northern Iraq seems to have been unable to control the small number of PKK separatists. How can they control Turkey itself, which has a half-million troops, the second-largest army in NATO and the largest army in Europe? No wonder a barrel of crude oil topped out at nearly $90 today.
What might restrain Turkey is its ongoing need for full access to American and, even more, EU markets. Turkey would dearly love to become a full member of the EU, and many in the EU would like to see Turkey join. Turkey's textiles and apparel industry, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of Turkey's exports, is being squeezed by low-cost competition from the rest of Asia and by concerns of western, especially European, buyers about labor conditions in Turkish factories. The Turkish government has contributed to the problem by raising taxes on employment to levels well above its neighbors, where wages may be as low as one-fifth of prevailing Turkish wages.
So the best hope for an effective U.S. voice might be to join it with that of the EU, which has warned Turkey against violating Iraq's territorial integrity. But the grave danger is that in the frayed international environment of 2007 Turkey will sooner or later respond to its very real domestic pressures and defy western wishes on the bet that they can continue to get away with going it alone.
The factors that will complicate its accession process are:
1) Recognition of Cyprus See (this remains a contentious issue given that Greek Cypriots rejected the Kofi Annan brokered referendum): http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/2839603.stm).
2) Majority approval by all member EU States (currently large majorities in Austria, Germany and France oppose Turkey's membership).
3) The accession process covers 34 chapters which must be completed before Turkey can receive full membership, of which it has completed one since accession talks began in 2005. So time is a natural factor.
What is a genuine constraint for Turkey's leadership is the recognition of the cost and damage that an invasion into Northern Iraq would cause to Turkey. Turkey is well aware that the PKK is attempting to bait Turkey into a trap (see US in Afghanistan, US in Iraq).
Turkey has its own historical experience fighting the PKK separatists. It spent almost 20 years, expended billions of dollars and lost thousands of lives – soldiers and civilians – over this period.
At the same time, the Turkish public is growing restless for a response and believes that the US has neglected Turkey's security concerns regarding the PKK and Northern Iraq (concerns that were formally raised both before and since the US invasion into Iraq). This reaction is normal - remember how we as Americans felt after 9/11.
Turkey will go into Iraq if it must, but it is sensibly waiting for the US and the Iraqi government - such as it is - to honor its agreements and eliminate this threat. The time for rhetoric, however, seems to have reached an end.
Finally regarding the decision of the Turkish Parliament to refuse the US military to use its airspace and ground space to launch the 2003 Iraqi evasion, please allow me to direct your attention to an article by Michael Rubin in the Middle East Forum which argues that ‘American diplomacy was not without fault and, indeed, bears much of the blame.’ http://www.meforum.org/article/701
Mr. Marlin,
I am afraid I don't agree with your analysis.
Turkey is not exercising restraint out of its need for closer economic ties with the EU and the US. It already has those. Turkey has been a member of the EU Customs Union since 1995. The EU is collectively Turkey's largest trading counterparty accounting for 60% of exports, followed by the US which is its fourth largest trading partner.
Turkey was a founding member of NATO (admittedly not an economic organization), and played an instrumental role as a US ally during the Cold War against the USSR and as a reliable partner during both Gulf Wars. Turkey even participated with the US in the Korean War.
Turkey is also considered Israel's most powerful regional ally (which, unlike the US, is not afraid to criticize Israel publicly from time to time).
Turkey's economic turnaround over the past 5 years has been one of the most impressive in the world. Most estimates forecast continued growth due to key structural and economic reforms which have taken place over this period (low inflation, independent Central Bank, disciplined fiscal spending).
GDP per capita remains an issue, but it is expected to converge with EU over time as part of Turkey’s overall economic growth. Today Turkey’s GDP per capita is greater than nine EU member states and ranks behind Portugal.
As you noted, Turkey has achieved accession status to enter into the EU - a process which is expected to take 10-15 years. Part of achieving accession status in 2003, was Mr. Erdogan’s groundbreaking steps to grant recognition of rights to ethnic Kurds in Turkey.
Turkey’s entry into the EU, however, is not affected by Turkey’s legal rights to take defensive actions against a recognized terrorist group operating from a neighbouring country. Turkey’s ultimate decision to defend itself from terrorist action will have little if any impact on Turkey’s EU accession efforts. Turkey has a right to defend itself against terrorists – this fact is not disputed by the US or the EU.
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The factors that will complicate its accession process are:
1) Recognition of Cyprus (this remains a contentious issue given that Greek Cypriots rejected the Kofi Annan brokered referendum): http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/2839603.stm).
2) Majority approval by all member EU States (currently large majorities in Austria, Germany and France oppose Turkey's membership).
3) Lengthy accession process that covers 34 chapters which must be completed before Turkey can receive full membership. One chapter has been completed since accession talks began. These must be completed prior to a vote by EU members.
What is a genuine constraint for Turkey's leadership is the recognition of the cost and damage that an invasion into Northern Iraq would cause to Turkey. Turkey is well aware that the PKK is attempting to bait Turkey into a trap (see US in Afghanistan, US in Iraq).
Turkey has its own historical experience fighting the PKK separatists. It spent almost 20 years, expended billions of dollars and lost thousands of lives " soldiers and civilians " over this period.
At the same time, the Turkish public is growing restless for a response and believes that the US has neglected Turkey's security concerns regarding the PKK and Northern Iraq (concerns that were formally raised both before and since the US invasion into Iraq). This reaction is normal - remember how we as Americans felt after 9/11.
Turkey will go into Iraq if it must, but it is sensibly waiting for the US and the Iraqi government - such as it is - to honor their commitments and eliminate this threat. The time for rhetoric, however, seems to have reached an end.
Finally regarding the decision of the Turkish Parliament to refuse the US military to use its airspace and ground space to launch the 2003 Iraqi evasion, please allow me to direct your attention to an article by Michael Rubin in the Middle East Forum which argues that "American diplomacy was not without fault and, indeed, bears much of the blame." http://www.meforum.org/article/701
Invading Iraq seems to have been a key to unleashing any number of bad forces in that part of the world. Since no one seems to understand all of the ramifications now, it's clear that no one had the requisite level of understanding when the initial decision to invade was made. I'm more and more convinced that chaos was intended, and chaos is the only guaranteed outcome.
What's not clear to me is how seemingly bright people could be stupid enough to think that they are smart enough to make safe bets in a chaotic environment.
Invading Iraq seems to have been a key to unleashing any number of bad forces in that part of the world. Since no one seems to understand all of the ramifications now, it's clear that no one had the requisite level of understanding when the initial decision to invade was made. I'm more and more convinced that chaos was intended, and chaos is the only guaranteed outcome.
What's not clear to me is how seemingly bright people could be stupid enough to think that they are smart enough to make safe bets in a chaotic environment.