After Super Tuesday

Read more Super Tuesday coverage on HuffPost

Now that Super Tuesday voters have made their wishes known, this is where we stand. On the Republican side, it's no surprise that Arizona Sen. John McCain is a lot closer today to securing the Republican nomination. He had significant victories in many Super Tuesday states.

For Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, Super Tuesday provided enough victory to build rationales for continuing their campaigns, but they are now well behind McCain in delegate count and momentum. Their campaigns may now be less about winning the nomination and more about making statements, and perhaps setting the stage for their political futures.

It's hard to picture a scenario to stop McCain, however, there are significant shadows lurking around the corner: Conservatives voted heavily for his two opponents. In fact, exit polls show four in 10 conservatives voted for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, as did four in 10 for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. McCain needs to consolidate the Republican conservative base. While he offers the Republicans a unique opportunity to grab the center of the political spectrum in the general election -- moderates and independents -- his real problem is obtaining support among that core of conservatives who neither like him nor trust him. His position on Iraq and national security should be of great appeal to conservatives, as should his biography of being a former prisoner of war. But, what is very troubling to them is that he has not been a Republican stalwart, he has little or no economic plan, and he is moderate on immigration.

On the other hand, he offers Republicans a very unique chance to neutralize the issue of illegal immigration and its negative impact on the all-important Hispanic vote. McCain alone can help stem the tide of declining Hispanic support for Republicans.

There is also the opportunity for Republican conservatives to unite behind McCain and take advantage of Democratic disunity. That's a choice that conservatives have to make for themselves.

Democrats have a few very important choices too. Will this be 1932 and a chance to elect an historic candidate with an historic mission for change? That could be either the first woman or the first African American. Also, Democrats have an opportunity to turn this into a new New Deal, or a similar 1980 Reagan moment. Each of those cases offered a package for change with a new kind of vision. I have said elsewhere that Franklin Roosevelt did not have a New Deal until after his campaign. That came after he read the will of the moment, and that came after the election.

On the other hand, will Democrat race degenerate into a repeat of 1968? That year, supporters of Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy, who were very opposed to the war in Vietnam, refused to warm up to party nominee Hubert Humphrey. Their lukewarm support cost Humphrey the election, and helped to elect Nixon by one point.

Now we will turn to some demographics. Each candidate has created a coalition, and they are revealed in Tuesday's exit polls.

• For Clinton, it's older women, Hispanics, and the oldest voters.
• For Obama, it's the very young, African Americans, liberals, and college educated voters. Obama also now gets 40% of the white male vote.

But, in order for either of the two candidates to secure the nomination, they must have greater crossover appeal. What separates these two candidates is not simply personality and tone, it's the fact that there are warring demographics that represent each candidacy. For Clinton, it's older women feeling that this is the last glass ceiling to break during their lifetime. For Obama, it's young voters and African Americans who are saying it's our turn and that the U.S. image both overseas and to its own citizens is at stake.

These conflicts represent serious rifts in the Democratic Party, and the longer it takes to heal those rifts the greater the advantage for McCain and the Republicans. In summary, lots of choices here need to be made. Will African Americans accept Clinton? Will young people vote in great numbers even if Obama is not the candidate? Will older women reject Obama? What will conservatives do?

About California: Some of you may have noticed our pre-election polling differed from the actual results. It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters. Those of you who have been following our work know that we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen.

Read more Super Tuesday coverage on HuffPost

Comments

[Nonamnesiac]

RERUN THE MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA PRIMARIES

The most democratic (Democratic?) way to resolve the Michigan/Florida divide is to rerun both primaries, perhaps on the same day as the Puerto Rico contest (June 7, I think).

The DNC should pay for half of the cost for running the primaries and the other half should be paid for however primaries are normally funded. In this way, a potentially party-dividing resolution at the Convention would be avoided in a manner that is equally fair and unfair to the candidates but wholly fair to the Democratic primary voters of that state. The so-called "super" delegates from Michigan and Florida should be forced to vote however the voters of the state vote. If it is a "winner-take-all" state, then the super delegates should vote however the majority in the state vote. If delegates are proportionately apportioned, then the super delegates should vote however the voters from the district from which they come vote.

Admittedly this resolution means a very different primary than it would have meant when the states original primaries occurred, as, among other things, there would only be 2 candidates on the ballot. However having another primary would be democratic and would also give the states what they were seeking by moving the election in contravention to DNC rules, in that each state's primary would be of major importance to determining who the candidate is. At the same time, having another primary would put to bed a division that could literally jeopardize the outcome of the national election in November, as the delegates from those states would not be the subject of a bitter tug-of-war that could anger significant proportions of the campaign workers from those states necessary to get out the vote (who is exactly who state delegates to the Convention are).

Rerun the primaries in Michigan and Florida.

[Macready]

"On the other hand, will Democrat race degenerate into a repeat of 1968? That year, supporters of Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy, who were very opposed to the war in Vietnam, refused to warm up to party nominee Hubert Humphrey. Their lukewarm support cost Humphrey the election, and helped to elect Nixon by one point."

you are overlooking the fact that the lack of support for Humphrey was due to two assinations . . . Martin Luther King Jr and Bobby Kennedy ... the heart was torn out of the country . . .

I suspect as far as the Democrats are concerned that the young voters, the independents, the male voters, moderate Republicans who are tired of war and a lot of female voters will be backing Obama . . . I think billary's support may have peaked . . .

[Loeb]

Zogby:

Hillary Clinton was not my first choice among
Democrats. My special concerns about Clinton
(HRC) are issues that were impossible to discuss and were off the public for public
discourse.l) foreign policy: HRC is HAWKISH
and would not cooperate with world organizations such as the UN, World Court etc.
She would not recognize the elected Palestinian
elected govt, HAMAS, and would not begin to
build relationships with Iran (the govt. we got
because our CIA overthrew the parliamentary one
for a dictator of our choice). 2)HRC would not
redraft trade agreements like NAFTA 3) HRC would not limit effects of outsourcing and
globalization which are affecting workers and
their families by the thousands (investors are
doing just fine thank you).
HOWEVER: We MUST work together if we are to
avoid yet another Bush-type administration,
perhaps even a worse one. (Remember George
W. was once a "compassionate conservative".
So sugary sweet!!)
We must unite from Denver to Nov 4 and VICTORY.
We are not traitors, we are not "surrendering
America". We are supporting an America we can be proud of once more. Have we forgotten???

Loeb

[johncheg]

John - I haven't seen any "true" coverage of the Clinton-Obama race yet. I've been around for 30 years. I see absolutely no way that Obama can win the Dem nomination. Neither do most of my colleagues - and we are all liberal Democrats. For instance - in Virginia - I think that Clintn will beat him by 265-350 thousand votes - maybe more. Is the mainstream media pushing this so-called "close race" simply to sell more ads? - thanks

[vsign]

It is obvious McCain wants Obama as the democratic candidate!!

Why does the media keep telling us the republicans and McCain want Hillary? He wants Obama - he knows he can beat Obama. I will not give Obama the red button and I'm a democrat! Lots of people will vote for McCain over Obama because he would make us feel safer than Obama ever could.

[vsign]

If Obama won't debate Hillary - the media needs to make him debate McCain NOW so we can make an intelligent decisiion as voters on our nominee.

The republicans are playing it just right. Make sure Obama is the nominee and then tell us voters how stupid we are for selecting the "affirmative action" candidate. After all, us democratic voters never made him to answer any hard questions. Not any questions like McCain has for him.

I think Edwards should SUE the media for not giving us voters a level playing field to judge our candidates. We do not want affirmative action anymore. Obama thinks he's so likeable, we'll just "adopt" him for president.

Obama is preaching to our youth that his DNA as president would "set them free". What does mixed ethnicity have to do with being a good president?

[dolphy]

I beg to differ. Thinking that it's OK to stay in Iraq for the next hundred years is not middle of the road for me. Air America Talk show hosts are very right in saying that a McCain administration is just the third term of this criminal Bushco administration.

[vsign]

The days of affirmative action are over. I resent the media not giving a level playing field to the voters so we can decide for ourselves who we want to hire for the job of president. Obama has insisted on affirmative action - playing the sympathy card in S Carolina. But then the media kept it up for so long!! For goodness sake, give us a level playing field between Obama and Hillary!

We need to judge the characters of each of them - judge "the content of their characters". We can't do that unless there is a level playing field.

[wrabbitt]

Looks as if all the hot air from want to be candidates knocked down houses. If 5% of what they promise actually was to come true. The economy would be able to stand on its own, and health care for everyone would be a reality. Now that MITT QUIT we have a smaller field still no better choice but, Hillary has moved closer to her dream,and our nightmare. McCain is too old. Hillary too lobbyist friendly, and Obama is the clear choice without Hillary on the ticket. Want a scary scenario, Hillary with Bill as Vice Pres. (Vice he knows!)

[kola1]

The pundits and all their media accomplices have decided for us who the next President would be. Unfortunately, we the people seemto have a different candidate in mind. I was a fervent supporter of Obama until i closely evaluated the reports i was getting from all the major news medium.

Haba! What a bias!!

After my discovery, i begun to listen more attentively to the candidates to decipher who has the best plan to reinvent America? Who can truly economically produce results that will guarantee properity to the greatest majority of our people? Undoubtedly, HRC has the best grasp of the issues. Obama is simply charismatic but empty in substance.

As for the polls, it would help to know how the data are collected and analysed?

Except if we only use statistics to project our views, i see nothing but deliberate spinning to produce a particular result.

[rbruce]

Zogby should not feel bad. The California outcome was skewed by the massive numbers of early mail-in votes.

Voters received ballots a month before Super Tuesday, when Clinton had a big lead and Obama was not really on voters' radar.

By the time Obama had his "surge," many of the mail-in ballots were gone.

You may have noticed thousands of lost votes for Edwards, Biden, Dodd and Kucinich.

It is really a travesty.

[kmills]

John, I think I am a political junkie. I watch all the polls. I trust your polls. I watch you on C-span every morning from 6:15-6:30 am cst. You always explain your data and you caution us when there is movement that you can not poll.

[Orikinla]

The hallmarks of leadership are not judged by political stump speeches or designer suits, but by the demonstration of bravery and wisdom in the service of humanity.

I have noticed undemocratic political rancor among the Democrats and I am disappointed that Senator Barack Obama is acting more like a Republican than a Democrat.

I am impressed by the spirit of endurance of Senator John McCain who has not given up since he lost in 2000 and 2004 and even at 71, he is more determined than all the presidential candidates to succeed and become the next President of the United States of America.
Senator Barack Obama cannot beat Senator John McCain in the presidential election, because the majority of Caucasian American voters, American Latino voters and Asian-American voters will not vote for Senator Barack Obama if Senator Hillary Clinton is not the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party. Most of the older women behind Senator Hillary Clinton will prefer to vote for Senator John McCain.

America was not built by the youths of the Internet Age supporting him, but by the older generation who were born before and after the Great Depression. Those who invented the TV and the Computer and built the great roads, bridges, flyovers and towering skyscrapers of the great industries of America from the 1920s to the 1960s when Barack Obama and Michelle Obama were still babies in diapers.

I have weighed the characters of both Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on leadership and I have found Senator Barack Obama wanting. He lacks the humility and philosophical profundity for the leadership of all Americans and the nation building of a New America in the 21st century.

Senator Barack Obama has been overrated by the American news media, manipulated by his political spin-doctors who are only puffing him up for their own Machiavellian power struggle for the political mercantilism of American Democracy.

Senator Barack Obama lacks the dignity, political integrity, and maturity for leadership.
Finis.

[vsign]

I'm heartbroken. I feel something wonderful and powerful for us as a country is being taken away from us. Hillary is so prepared to be our president and would do the job of keeping us safe. And might even be able to clean up the mess we are being left with. We have one chance to get it right and it is being taken away by a con man. I want to thank Bill as well, for being ready and willing to help us. He tried to make people think in New Hampshire. The media stepped in and has manipulated the narrative and message, with the encouragement of Obama playing his race and sympathy cards so well - for 10 days now - two weeks? - why can't anyone do anything!

How can we fight the good battle? He's a fake! Why isn't anyone saying anything?? If he wins, we are going to be in danger! No one is even asking him any hard questions! Reminds me of the media messages we got to vote for Bush/Cheney and then to go to war in Iraq.

Hillary and Bill have already been tutored on the red button. I can't believe Obama will get the majority of the people to trust him with the red button. I won't be one of them. I can't do it. I would be more afraid with him than even Bush/Cheney or a republican. I think he is that immature and unprepared and clever. It has been really hard to test his character - given so little time since his announcement and his surge. The media won't help.

It is his character that counts.
There is something wrong with his character when he conducts his campaign the way he does (as an above it all - religious man), encouraging the thousands of our youth to believe only in him. How many parents are being persuaded by their children to vote for Obama?

[Codymens]

All you Obama supporters know and do is spin on the internet.Can anyone tell me which state Obama won on super Tuesday that he can repeat with the exception of Missouri?. He won Red states where there are few democrats. Real democrats strongholds were all won by Hillary with the exception of CT.
Let's be real here. He cannot win any state with few Black voters. Wake up Obamaniacs.