Do Obama's Sinking Poll Numbers -- Signal History Repeating for Democrats?

As the Democrats head into their convention, should they be singing the Eurythmics 1985 hit "Here Comes That Sinking Feeling"?

Just as party leaders pack their bags for Denver, our latest Reuters/Zogby poll finds their nominee in some trouble, as Republican John McCain has taken a five-point lead over Barack Obama. That is a 12-point reversal from the survey we took for Reuters in July. Interestingly, Obama's margins among what had been his strongest demographic groups dropped by as much as 12 points. These include Democrats, women, city dwellers and younger voters -- those ages 25-34. Also, Obama has lost his lead among the swing Catholic vote, dropping 11 points to McCain over a month.

What is happening is all too familiar to Democrats. McCain is using the Karl Rove playbook, attacking Obama's perceived strengths, notably his mass appeal and freshness. Democrats hoped that eight years of a failed Bush presidency (80% in our latest survey said the nation was on the wrong track) so diminished the GOP brand that "going negative" would not work again for the Republicans.

In the end, it may not. Negative campaigning did not work on either side of the aisle in the primaries and caucuses. However, clearly McCain has been the aggressor for the past month, seeing an opportunity to define Obama for General Election voters before Obama could define himself. At times, it has seemed like he has been the only one throwing any punches, especially with Obama on vacation in Hawaii.

The adulation of European crowds on Obama's overseas trip seems to have helped McCain with conservatives. They distrust Europeans and actually had the opportunity to imagine a liberal Democrat in the role of President - and didn't like the thought. Meanwhile, Obama's attempts at flexibility on issues dear to liberals and young voters (Iraq and FISA) may have dampened their enthusiasm.

Choosing August for a vacation proved inopportune for Obama. August has been cruel to Democrats in the past. That is the month when Jimmy Carter, Mike Dukakis and John Kerry all went down in the polls.

As much as voters may prefer the Democrats on most issues, McCain is winning the contest of defining who has the character and personality that swing voters expect in a president. Obama appeals to the mind. McCain goes for the gut.

McCain's war record and well-established image as a maverick Republican make it tough for Obama to assail McCain the man. Obama's rhetoric this week shows he recognizes that his issues appeal must become more aggressive and emotional. With 48% of our poll respondents citing the economy as the most important issue, Obama is hitting hard at the GOP record on job losses. He clearly has work to do. Our Reuters/Zogby poll released Wednesday shows more voters trust McCain to deal effectively with economic issues.

Obama must convince voters that he is on their side. While it may be difficult to measure, race complicates that task with white voters, especially older people. Some believe that McCain has already injected racial innuendo into the campaign. The non-partisan David Gergen said on ABC: " . . . as a native of the south, I can tell you, when you see this Charlton Heston ad, 'The One,' that's code for, 'he's uppity, he ought to stay in his place.'" Obama partisans also saw race as the subtext of two McCain ads: one that featured Brittany Spears and Paris Hilton, and another that showed several young white women praising Obama.

But when Obama responded to these ads by saying McCain was trying to frighten voters, and adding that he did not look like other Presidents on dollar bills, voters judged Obama negatively and felt he was the one bringing race into the campaign.

It may happen that independent expenditure groups - those so-called "527s" - will raise the racial ante. If they do, Obama may be forced to follow the model set by Jackie Robinson, who ignored taunts in order to succeed as Major League baseball's first African-American.

His vice-presidential pick and the convention now give Obama the opportunity to restore his image as an agent of positive change who would inspire the nation to act. It will be a tall order. But let's not forget - it was the electric Obama speech at the Democratic convention four years ago that got this whole presidential campaign started in the first place.

Comments

[sylvee007]

If Obama does not take Hillary Clinton, I'm voting McCain!..

[Lemeritus]

Welcome to The Huffington Post, sylvee007. I see this is your first post. Your screen-name would seem to indicate an ambition to work undercover. For Rush, I would imagine.

[jhNY]

Glad to see Mr. Zogby was right in 1996 (see Bio), but during primary season, I remember his results turned up often among the outliers, and when he was asked why his poll numbers were at odds with most, and in one instance also very wrong, he had no explanation. Nice to see he can explain himself today, but today it's easy. The next poll that's really going to count is THE ELECTION, and all the rest before it will convulse the electorate to various postures of hope and dread, and the punditocracy to conclusions that they will defend by citing polls, many of which will look wildly wrong in retrospect.

[Meteor]

This far out from the election polls don't mean much; polls go up and polls down. Do you know anyone who asks themselves, "How do the polls say I should vote?"

[Tobiasism]

NO.
I think that there will be a landslide for Obama.
Look at the economy.

Foreclosure, Credit Crunch, Bank failures, a decade of market lost, two wars , the deficit,
with more to come.

The military stretched so taut that we cannot even alter world events.

McCain has to answer for that.

[Lemeritus]

Without a doubt... there SHOULD BE a landslide for Obama.

[BottomLine2008]

Your poll is a huge outlier, Mr. Zogby.

[legalclubs]

I'm a moderate democrat who just can't bring myself to vote for O. His positions on infanticide, his reluctance to drill for oil to reduce our oil dependence, is flip-flops on FISA and gun control, and all the other lies are just too much. McCain, on the other hand, is a fairly progressive Republican - so he's got my vote.

[Lemeritus]

**speechless**

[FanofPaine]

By moderate democrat, you mean Republican, right?

[jhNY]

You're a moderate democrat the way I'm a radical republican: not even a little bit in either case. Love a guy who can stand up against infanticide. Me too. Want to guess how many infants have been killed since we began our ongoing War Crime in Iraq? Are those the dead infants that have you upset? Didn't think so. Beat it!

[MFM008]

This coming from the guy who in 2004 said Kerry by 5 points.
Zogby your the worst of all the pollsters.

[bodhibabe]

Maybe I'm naive, but I don't get how the polls work... do they call people on landlines only? If so... they're missing Obama's base of support who do not own landlines (myself included). I don't have the time to research it... so if anyone has a short response.... please enlighten me.

[Pepper14]

Polls are not that important right now but if voters are as mad and unhappy as the media keeps telling us then you do have to wonder why Obama does not have a double digit lead. If you are undecided that is not good news for Obama because that means you will probably vote McCain. I really believe that going into Nov. Obama will have to have a double digit lead to win. Being ahead by 3 points will not win him the election.

[WorkingClass]

Obama's margins among what had been his strongest demographic groups dropped by as much as 12 points. These include Democrats, women, city dwellers and younger voters -- those ages 25-34. Also, Obama has lost his lead among the swing Catholic vote, dropping 11 points to McCain over a month.

Do you suppose Obama is losing ground among Democrats because of Republican attack adds? I doubt it. I would guess its because he is sleeping with the enemy and not coming home at night. Meanwhile, the very scum he is courting is firming up behind McCain. If the Democrats manage to lose this election they will be a laughing stock for one hundred years.

[Seral]

Are you talking about the democrats that had voted for Bush two times in a row or the democrats that had voted for the opposites or the democrats that had only voted for the American idol or similars before? There are too many different types of democrats that it is hard to make a guess at this point what may happen next.

[MyNameIsJames]

NO - He is talking about those Democrats who actually BELIEVED Obama when he convinced them that he stood for REAL Change. What they found out in June and July was that they had been manipulated and that Obama was in fact going back to the Democratic " How to lose another Presidential Election" handbook.

[Lemeritus]

"...sleeping with the enemy and not coming home at night...."

I like that! A lot!

[rkrenke]

People underestimate the power of corporate-owned media and its ability to confuse low information voters. Obama's using the Democrat's same old failed political tactics and it may cost them another election.

Much of what Zogby says is true - sticking your fingers in your ears and singing la-la-la while he's talking won't help Obama win the election. Obama lost a lot of support/enthusiasm with his FISA vote and has yet to convince these voters that he's a Progressive candidate, i.e., the change they've been waiting for. He also lost a lot of HRC supporters and definitely does not appeal to the un- or misinformed voter. If he continues to pander to the wrong voter blocs, which the Dems always do, he may very well lose this election and his place in history.

Obama supporters need to wake up and understand that not everyone sees the world as they do.

[howdyfromtexas]

I am trying hard to believe Obama knows what he is doing, Saying China is superior to the US in build cities with slave labor ? US attacking Iraq is the same as the russian's hitting georgia. These are not good ideas to throw out to a hungry media.

[handyallen1]

but true ideas

[luziannagirl]

Yes. both rkrenke and Zogby are onto something. Obama should quit catering so much to the "swing vote".

People KNOW he's different and his positions are different than the ones we've seen from leaders of both parties the last few decades. That's a strength, but only if he plays to it, as he did earlier in the campaign.

Being different can be a weakness, though, if he MAKES it one, by moving to the middle!

What he'll never successfully be, is middle, so he should stop trying it. It makes him look weak and wishy-washy. It saps his passion, and takes away the spark in his eye.

Frightened people and people desperate for change will rally behind the strongest appearing leader, regardless of whether they agree totally with his or her philosophy. So....

BE THAT LEADER, BIG O! BE THAT CHANGE!

Dump the hand-wringing spinsters! Get that spark back in your eye, and come out swingin' !

[wingnutslayer]

After McCain's housing crisis and the Bush Administration's sudden timetable for leaving Iraq, I think that writing off Obama at this point would be a fairly idiotic move. And if McCain names Romney as his veep and Obama names Biden things should get really interesting. Romney is so superficial that I had to wonder if he was just playing a candidate for president on tv during the primaries. Seriously, if you had to hire an actor to play an elitist buffoon, he'd look and act a lot like the Mittster. Biden is anything but superficial. Plus, when it comes to flip-flopping, Romney has to win the Silver Medal after McCain. He took practically everything that made him a successful Republican governor of a Democratic state and jettisoned it all just to appeal to the, ahem, wingnuts of the right. Mr. Zogby, with all due respect, stick to the polling and stop giving the appearance of trying to influence the polls. It's a long way to November and the cowpies are dotting the landscape like a bovine minefield. A lot of those mines are going to end up with big footprints in them, Dem and Rep both.

[charlesdickens]

I am one of those older women Clinton supporters who could very easily go for McCain, but if McCain puts Romney on his ticket, he will lose the middle. Romney is such a fake. He's dancing around this vice-presidency in another pathetic attempt to be president - like his becoming a religious conservative with his eye on the prize. Obama with Biden is much more appealing.

[jhNY]

Love your books, and I cried about Little Nell like everybody else, but if you were listening to your primary candidate and what she believes in, you can't be strongly tempted by such an empty-hearted war fan as McCain (R-POW). No health care, social security "a disgrace", and more tax cuts for plutocrats. And he can't keep you safe, because he'll be too busy risking your life as he lurches from crisis to crisis, extemporizing aggression with every breath.

[Overd0g]

He's black, left of center, and has virtually no experience. That's going to be a rather large liability in the general election.

[Lemeritus]

Except for the "black" part (where we could substitute "Catholic"), the same could be said of JFK.

[howdyfromtexas]

Jfk was a LT in the navy and had combat experience.

[DMM1029]

Dear Mr. Zogby,

In a season where the 'polls' retreat into irrelevance, I predict that on election night Mr. Obama will smoke Mr. McCain regardless of what your polls say now.

[Seral]

This year, poll results were surprising. But, the question is, what if they don't fail this time? Since, changing sides within a single group can happen easily (as we saw in the race between Obama and Clinton), but that may not be true for changing sides from one party to another.

[genia]

I would like to know how Pollsters (the actual persons making the phone calls) are hired?
Anybody?

How does someone like Mr. Zogby know that the pollsters aren't partisan ?

Because ....IF...there's a way for the right to send minions to apply for the pollster jobs..... If there's a way to cheat...you know they have figured it out....you know they will.

[Lemeritus]

None of us are happy with the polling results of late, but regarding Zogby specifically, FAQs concerning his polls are at:

http://www.zogby.com/about/faq.cfm#question1

John Zogby, himself, is a Democrat.