What's certain in the election of 2010 is that both parties are going to have to bring out their base. Republicans have done a good job, to date, firing up conservatives by holding up a stop sign in an effort to prevent major Obama administration initiatives. While they weren't able to block several pieces of reform legislation, polls are clear that conservatives and conservative constituencies are solidly behind Republican candidates going into 2010. There is always the potential fly in the ointment for Republicans in the form of the Tea Party movement; will these angry populists and their supporters settle for mere conservatives in November?
On the flip side, there's President Obama and the Democrats. While the President can point to a strong record of reform legislation, half the country rejects it and some from his own base remain cool. In order for Democrats to cut their sure to be off-year losses, they will need to put together as much of the Obama winning coalition of 2008 as possible. In particular, this includes Hispanics, African Americans, and young voters, all of whom voted in record numbers. In addition, it includes some blue collar supporters and members of the more upscale creative class. To date, voters in these groups remain pretty cool and did not turn out to vote in the elections of 2009.
But there are two ways to fire up the base. One clearly is for Democrats to focus their message on successful results and to paint the opposition party as either lacking a program or carrying a program that is already failed. But there may be a second option for the Democrats -- and that's to let ultra-conservatives carry the ball for them by scaring the bejeezus out of key Democratic constituencies. We have some evidence so far this could be working. The President's numbers are in the mid-40s, which is nowhere near the low numbers achieved by Jimmy Carter, George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush. And while prospects are still tough for the Democrats, they still remain competitive in the congressional generic. Some Democratic governors have wondered why the Obama Administration, through Attorney General Eric Holder, has decided to challenge in court the Arizona immigration law. For an answer they need to look no further than our recent poll of July 16 showing Obama receiving a 15-point bump among Hispanics. The Shirley Sherrod issue represents a low point for all the parties involved, however, as of this writing, Ms. Sherrod has emerged as a hero and the President may have turned a very bad situation into something better. Notably, watch African American fear and enthusiasm rise. Each additional African American voter is usually a Democratic voter.
So where do Democrats go from here? They need to sit down with crusading blogger Andrew Breitbart, who can tell half the story by focusing on government spending, and the real story, about people being helped, will unfold. They should offer him the following video assignment:
And by the way, don't forget the laid-off special education teacher who is now going back to work in September. In an election like this, where it's all about the base, remember, the base needs to hear positive accomplishments. But to rejigger the words of F.D.R., "nothing creates fear like fear itself."
Stay tuned to the Huffington Post for my advice to the Republicans.
Ben Daniel: Arizona Immigration Law Founded on Fear and Falsehood
James Zogby: I Understand Shirley Sherrod
As various authors remind us this man from Missouri did indeed believe that the buck stopped at his desk and if one could not stand the heat he needed to get out of the kitchen. An admirer of the ancient Roman concept of Cincinnatus Truman felt that when your term was finished you needed to return home and be a working citizen again. In his response to a reporter's question in Independence after he left the white house he gave his reason for not serving on corporate boards. He would often say that the companies did not want him, they wanted the President of the United States. He would add that the office belonged to the American people and it was not for sale.
He was totally transparent and in my humble opinion represents the type of individual we need for the office in the future.
Dr. Alan G. Phillips, Sr.
How do you figure that, Jim? Obama's got egg all over his face! it also reminds people of his other blundering on race with Skippy Gates and the NBPP. Even worse, Sherrod is becoming a loose cannon accusing FOX of racism (even after Beck defended her) and saying Breitbart wants all black people back in chains. She's morphing right into the kind of race propagandist everyone thought she was when the first video excerpt broke, and she's losing a great deal of public sympathy as a result. And no matter how radical off-the-rails she gets, now the President can't fire her.
Disaster's coming in November, Jim. I haven't seen this disaffected an electorate since Jimmy Carter in 1980, possibly even worse. Look for all the silver linings you want. There are certainly plenty of black clouds to choose from. Here's another: the youth vote critical to Obama is now becoming disaffected. See you at the polls!
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/youths_turn_on_obama_lU4nOIvffCmDAe38io9DAI
In politics there are some who follow the same ideosophy and come out on top no matter who wins an election - be it Democrat or GOP. The lobbyists always win and so do the pollsters. Like munitions sellers who will supply both combatants, these modern day Janus-minded individuals will work with both parties and will exploit both for their own best interests.
This article displays that Janus ideosophy quite clearly. Politicians, as a whole are also Janus minded. You could call it "mercurial" or as John McCain liked to call himself being a "Marverick". Unfortunately for all the voters who care deeply about issues concerning the nation a Washington filled with Janus headed politicians, pollsters and lobbyists means that no one really has a true, loyal public servant that consistently operates from a stalwart ideosophy.
The new Tea Party is an evolution and response to the Janus headed people. Whether they will be corrupted by them remains to be seen.
What you would get is an inability to govern. That's why the real world of politics requires compromise, where the perfect isn't allowed to be the enemy of the merely good.
Which means that everyone has some outcomes they don't like. But overall, it makes the republican democracy work, with the exception of the Civil War, its worked for over two centuries, certainly longer than any other democracy. And de facto results: we are the most powerful country on the planet, one of the wealthiest, and enjoy quite a large degree of civil liberties.
So, gee, compromise works, when you are trying to govern 350 million people. Put down the Edith Hamilton "Mythology" book and come out here in the real world, where real governance occurs.
The word itself is telling. When a woman is compromised....or the fort has been compromised...or our borders have been compromised...the situation is the opposite of good. It's a breach. The lobbyists approach each newbie politician and ethically attempt to compromise him. As the people see the results of compromise, they get to vote out those who have compromised them and vote in someone who will not. Ideologically pure politicians tend to have a long-lived career in Washington DC.
Again, in a few months the people will get to express their displeasure with the compromises that resulted in bailing out the banks, brokers and car dealers while leaving them vacating a foreclosed home and competing with illegal immigrants for a rental home and a job.
Then, if not prosecutions, we wanted a voice for our outrage and anger. We wanted the Repubs excoriated. Instead, for the first year, we got bipartisanship. And we got historic legislation, albeit not as pure as we wanted-- and more on the Left peeled away from this President. The frustration was at the necessary bipartisanship as much as at the lack of a public option, or at the size of the stimulus, or at the compromises in the fin/reg bill. We would have been happier if we got nothing, but were able to vent our vented. Obama was right in the long run.
For what?
For the extraordinary renditions still being performed by the Obama administration?
For running Guantanamo which is still being run by the Obama administration?
For keeping the troops in Iraq and Iran - as the Obama administration is doing?
For cozying up to bankers and brokers - as the Obama administration is doing?
For maintainig the tax cuts for the rich - as the Obama administration is doing?
The lack of enthusiasm among progressives is due to the fact that their choice has been a major letdown and has not lived up to 1/100th of the hype that preceded him. The independents have swung and now will be voting with the GOP due to the complete failure of the trillion dollar "stimulus" packages which have not increased employment & have simply increased the debt of each citizen.
As for the "historic legislation" you cite, the healthcare program promises to be the nail in one of the last thriving industries generating GDP in the US and will simply be a nice tax increase for everyone, left & right, while giving the IRS vast new powers to interfere in our lives. Sure, that's historic all right, just as December 7th was historic.
The tide has turned & people are waking up to the incompetence & inefficiency of the federal goverment and now will return power to the states.
They refuse to stand up to bullies.
Few will vote for losers.
Dems give money to bankers and then complain about them. Weak.
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) has a plan for what the Republicans should do if they win control of the House of Representatives: Spend all their time investigating the Obama administration.
"Oh, I think that's all we should do," Bachmann told the Three Fingers of Politics website. "I think that all we should do is issue subpoenas and have one hearing after another, and expose all the nonsense that has gone on. And it's very important when we come back that we have constitutional conservative leadership, because the American people's patience is about this big. So we have to make sure that we do what the people want us to do."
Obama refuses to prosecute war criminals and profiteers, Blackwater and Halliburten are still in business. Guantanamo, rendition, Bagram.
New Yorkers stopped and searched, details kept in a database.
Why can't the left be as solid as the right?
I think the answer is that we don't treat Politics as Religion....
We have no High Priest, Priestess and Potentates ( Limbaugh / Palin / Beck )
to Preach to us at a purely emotional level...
We have no Moses to deliver our Commandments and Scriptures ( Ronald Reagan )
It is much more difficult to be FOR SOMETHING than it is to be AGAINST SOMETHING and Republicans are perpetually p!ssed off and mad as hell even when they HAD the white house and congress.... The folks that push their buttons never stop pushing their buttons to get mad about something...
Our Coalition is FOR things... sometimes not the same things..... but that doesn't mean we are against each others Things.....But you can't become as solid as Republicans on that basis.
But don't worry... Their ideology-based rigid rules will be their downFall....in the Long Run...
Jus like Bush could Not NOT give taxCuts during a Time of War....
Because....
IT
WAS
WRITTEN
!
( amen )
While the "left " is diverse and multicultural Afrian Americans, Asians and especially Latinos are making an increasing portion of the Democratic and Progressive Democratic movement.
Is not as easy to come up with a "on-point" message that all groups agree upon.
Please tell me that that advice will be for them to stay home and Cheney themselves?