As the campaigning in Iowa gives way tonight to the actual caucuses, my final numbers for Iowa are in and they show Senator Barack Obama pulling into a four point lead over former Senator John Edwards, 31% to 27%, with Senator Hillary Clinton down to 24%. When I first started tracking this race the day after Christmas, Clinton actually led by four points, with Edwards in third place. There were twists and turns during the eight days of tracking, but there is very little doubt that Obama picked up steam, Edwards increased his support, and Clinton clearly declined.
These results are based on calls made up to 9PM EST Wednesday and this race is still very close. And let's face it, from here turnout is the name of the game. But the movement to Obama and, to some degree, to Edwards is evident. So is an apparent Clinton fade. Clinton has lost her edge among Democrats, where she is now in a three-way tie, and among Liberals. Obama now leads with Liberals. The three candidates are close with women, though Clinton still leads, but men favor Obama over Edwards 35% to 28%, with only 16% supporting Clinton.
Obama still commands the vote of young people, while Clinton is strong among voters over 65. Interestingly, Obama now has the lead among 2004 Kerry supporters and is near even with Edwards among voters in union households. Half of Edwards 2004 supporters are still with him, really no small feat with the competition so steep this year. Obama has also pulled into the lead in rural areas, but Edwards is still the top second choice among these likely caucus goers, followed by Obama, with Clinton a distant third.
When I redistribute the second choices among supporters of probable unviable candidates, here is what I get: Obama 37.5%, Edwards 33.7%, Clinton 28.8%.
Among Republicans, former Governor Mike Huckabee crossed over past thirty percent and has built a six-point lead over former Governor Mitt Romney, 31% to 25%, as Romney clearly fades. In this final round, former Senator Fred Thompson receives 11%, with Senator John McCain and Congressman Ron Paul tied at 10%.
Huckabee leads among Republicans and Independents, among all age groups under 65, both Conservatives and Very Conservative voters, and women. His lead among Born Agains is solid. While he was being challenged among these groups with some growth in support for Thompson, Thompson's growth has appeared to stem. Should Thompson begin to climb, his votes will no doubt hurt Huckabee. Senator John McCain also is stalled. Should he regain some of footing from earlier in our polling, he will drain support from Romney. Paul has the most intense backers of any Republican candidate. A McCain third place thrusts him into New Hampshire where he is already doing well. A Paul third place would position him to do a second or third place in New Hampshire -- it is the "Live Free or Die" state, after all -- and would be a tremendous embarrassment to big names like McCain, Thompson, and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
A final word on Iowa: The issue is change, and Clinton decided to run as an incumbent. When it became clear that voters in Iowa were looking for change, Clinton became the candidate who kept changing -- not the one who symbolized change in Washington. Of course, she can still win tonight in Iowa but the strategy to run as an incumbent, the inheritor of the mantle, the inevitable nominee and president has, at the very least, caused problems. Even if she ekes out a victory, it will likely have meant that, still, nearly two thirds of Democratic caucus-goers were supporting someone else.
Perhaps the biggest problem that Clinton and her team never anticipated is that they, essentially, ended up running against both Jack Kennedy and Bobby Kennedy. Edwards (the Bobby) tapped into an anger that our polls measured in big numbers. His message is powerful for Democrats and I believe he will move on to New Hampshire. Obama has connected with young people and Iowans looking for hope and opportunity with an energetic message reminiscent of Jack Kennedy. Tomorrow this will still be a three-way race.
On the Republican side, if Romney wins, it will still have been a battle for his political life in a state where he had led by wide margins for most of the year. Huckabee also has tapped into something. Journalists laughed when he held a news conference to pull a negative ad. But he came off as genuine, something that the press corps is perhaps too jaded to appreciate. It appears to have made an intriguing contrast with Romney who opted to go negative. Watching Iowans for many years, I've learned two lessons: they don't like to be told in advance who they are going to vote for and they do like authenticity. Iowa to U.S. politics: "be real."
What's important is the things a politician says he or she will do, and how much you believe, based on their record, that they will make that happen. Authentic? That's for the rubes.
****IN 2000 WE HAD CHANGE AT THE HANDS OF INNEXPERIENCE888** which heralded in the destruction of America.
When Ian Pasley and the leaders of Northern Irland recently came here, they sought out Hillary Clinton to thank her for all she had
done to help them work out their decades long differences.
In 1995 she represented the United States in Pakistan when she met with the then Prime Minister Bhutto about Democracy in that countrty.
It was Hillary Clinton in Bejing (despite the fact that the Chinese didn't like it) representing the United States who put the "Women's Right is Human Rights" matter on the world table.
It was she who first met with the leaders of India which launched the warming of relations between the United States and India (which had been very cold for decades until then)
Slogans are for the brainwashed and uninformed.
Wake Up America, it is not the Devil but God (if there is one) who resides in the details.
The polls are an overbearing ridiculous exercise. Are they the Nielson's sweeps week to see how much to charge advertisers? There should be a warning label stating how accurate the polling company has been in the past.
The Electoral College is a mess.
Ballot counting is untrustworthy and varies from state to state.
Political ads should be banned unless they are verifiably accurate.
Money. Enough said.
Pundits should be fired when they're wrong and deceitful.
Voters should be given IQ tests to qualify.
Churches should lose their tax free status for engaging in politics.
Our election system reminds be of those mid-50s American cars in Cuba kept running with baling wire and makeshift parts. In fact, those cars probably run better than our election system
Without a willing congress the only thing he can change is his underwear.
It's a great read. Bush surpassed their wildest attempts at humor IN HIS FIRST YEAR. The Onion gave him four.
This version has links to reality being WORSE than satire:
http://www.godlessgeeks.com/BushNightmare.htm
~~~
""My fellow Americans," Bush said, "at long last, we have reached the end of the dark period in American history that will come to be known as the Clinton Era, eight long years characterized by unprecedented economic expansion, a sharp decrease in crime, and sustained peace overseas. The time has come to put all of that behind us.""
Fercissakes.
Per the Onion, upon Bush's inauguration:
"Thank god that national nightmare of peace and prosperity is at last behind us."
Peace and love y'all
Yep. That's about it.
Not much to ask, huh.
We all deserve as much.
Let's keep them ALL honest.
ONWARD!
And, if you position yourself as the one, only and inevitable choice... (To Katie Couric Hillary said "It will be me.... no, it will be me. I don't think about losing because it will be me.") ... when it comes back to bite you in the ass, whining that you're a woman, or can't help it that you have 35 years of unexplained "experience" or that Iowa has never had a woman congressperson or governor, or any other excuses just won't do.
Hillary made her bed... now she can lie down with sleeping dogs and have fleas for breakfast.
If I recall, your polling company failed to name Bush as the next president, too.
You should have included questions about which Democratic candidate people thought would most likely be assassinated by crazy right-wingers if they won the election.
I'd put Obama and Clinton in a dead heat.
Edwards gets a bye- he's a white man.