Let The Second Guessing Begin: Five Reasons Obama Won and Five Reasons Clinton Lost

Let the recriminations begin. After one of the greatest upsets in American political history, journalists, historians and bloggers will be talking for years about what happened. In such a close race, the winner (Obama) did plenty of things wrong, and the loser (Clinton) did a lot right. But that's not what we're here for today. First we need to know what tipped the balance. Here are five reasons why he won and five reasons why she lost.

Why Obama Won

Message Obama's change message was far superior in 2008 to Hillary's experience message. With a majority of Americans telling pollsters the country is on the wrong track, this is a "change election," as even John McCain admitted this week. Obama faced a danger, fueled by Hillary's gibes, that his change message would be too vague and rhetorical. But the combination of wonky policy speeches in early 2007 and a well-designed Web site that proved he was substantive helped him put meat on the strong bones of his themes.

The basic choice, as I argued from the beginning, was Inspiration vs. Restoration, and even when Obama's hope message flagged among certain constituencies, it worked better overall than nostalgia for the competence of the Clinton years.

Organization: The tone of every organization is set from the top. A fish rots from the head, but the head is also how the fish navigates. Obama started his professional life as a community organizer. In 1992 he led a drive that registered 150,000 Chicago voters. As his shout-out Tuesday night to campaign manager David Plouffe suggests, he looked for--and found--the best organizers in politics, regardless of age. Even had Hillary tried to organize in the caucus states, she would still have likely lost them.

To read the full article, go to newsweek.com.

Comments

[KillTheMessenger]

More straight talk, more beef and much less drama than in most similar pieces. First I was inclined to say..."here we go again"... but now I think that serious post-mortem can and should be done. This was a good first draft. Thank you.

[Doofus]

I wonder if this really matters, at least at this point.
One of the aspects of the HRC campaign that always
puzzled me was the assumption of inevitability and
entitlement. The other, mainly, was on-going bad
judgment, in evidence from October 2002 on.

But, the main thing is, it's actually much easier to get
nominated than it is to get elected.

[Mackmal1]

Mr. Alter...you comments are very much on point....

[mamazboy]

Great analysis by the ever-reliable Jonathan. Sums it all up so clearly. Now it's on to the general with Obama! (thank god and let's pray he lets the proper committees go after Bush, Cheney, Rove, Rumsfeld, and the rest of the criminals who have nearly destroyed our country).

[BBackSoon]

I did like the analysis. I agree with everything. Especially the reasons Clinton lost. For me personally I was continually turned off by the Clinton campaign for all the reasons you listed. She actually rubbed me the wrong way on so many different occasions that I only watched her on TV slightly more than I can watch Bu$h.

Let me also add that I enjoy hearing your insights on Countdown, you are a great asset to the show.

One last thing, Update your Bio on Huffpo, It appears to be 2 years old.

[cincyr]

Clinton essentially ceded the race to Obama last February when Obama won the 11 primaries and caucuses between Super Tuesday and March 4th by large margins. For instance, he won the Virginia primary by 64%.

From these 11 contests he gained 288.5 pledged delegates and Clinton gained 165.5 pledged delegates - a difference of 123 delegates. At the end of the primary election, only 127 pledged delegates separate the two.

She could never catch up to him after these 11 losses.

[fortuna]

I read this all the way to the end, and I was struck by one thing more than anything else as it pertains to the Clinton campaign. It sounds as though she had no one in her campaign staff or among her close supporters who felt free to tell her the truth about things, good or bad. Everyone needs someone who can offer a reality check. I think she was grossly misserved in that she had no one to offer that.

[mom2sons]

Jonathan you rock! Always insightful thoughts!