SAG DVD Residuals Increase: RIP

It seems pretty clear that SAG has dropped its request for an increase in the DVD residual (as I predicted it would have to): an email from National Executive Director Doug Allen to the members an hour ago lists various priorities -- and omits DVD altogether.

The relevant portion of the letter says:

Your interest in and support of the key issues like jurisdiction and residuals for all new media have been invaluable to our negotiations ... We also know that you remain concerned about other key bargaining priorities such as, for example, product integration, force majeure, stunt performers and background actors' issues.

Three years from now, when the SAG agreement (if one ever gets signed) and WGA agreement expire a month apart, the unions may decide to try once again to increase DVD residuals. They'd be well advised to do so, not just because the DVD/BD (Blu-ray Disc) market will still be worth many billions of dollars, but also because future technologies are likely to include physical media, and these will be paid using the "DVD formula." See Slipped Disc: Why DVD Residuals Still Matter -- and Always Will.

Turning from the future back to the present, the letter also seems to say that meetings between SAG and the studios are taking place now, notwithstanding press reports to the contrary:

Your negotiators are working every day to successfully conclude negotiations .... Right now, that involves small group meetings and exchanges with the employers, their AMPTP representatives and a core group of leaders in both organizations. ... You will not doubt read spin suggesting that there is dead silence between our sides. ... Discussions through alternative channels are ongoing....

Sorry if I remain skeptical, but I doubt progress is being made now, or that any will be made until after the SAG elections conclude on September 18. In my view, the soonest we'll see a deal is early October, and there's no assurance of that. It all depends on the election results.

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Comments

[commentguy1234]

Three years from now DVD residuals won't matter much anyway, and Blu-ray will be regarded as the failure it is. Everything is moving away from physical media, away from DRM locks and restrictions. I haven't bought a new DVD in years, and don't plan to. I have a TB drive full of movies and TV series, and in three years hard drives will be moving toward the Petabyte limit (1,000,000 GB). As TV and movies go online, stream rippers will become more popular and powerful, and all sales will drop precipitously. The RIAA will successfully lobby for an internet tax, the MPAA will follow, internet bills will jump between 5-20 dollars and that will be how artists are paid (assuming these major corporations intend to pay them). That's when the real fun will begin; as fiber capacity and servers are pushed to the limit and piracy becomes all-but sanctioned, just as russian/chinese/EU spam and virus writers begin to defeat anti-virus technology to further jeopardize the internet economy with their phishing and bot-farms.

Ah, the future. It gets darker all the time.

[Changeling]

Wow, you're clueless. On so many levels.

1. Blu ray sales are up, continue to rise, and exceed DVD's already sales when compared to the same points in their product cycles.

2. MUSIC is moving beyond DRM, mainly to stop the sales bleeding caused by so many other issues, not the least of which is no interest in marketing long-term talent. Movies and television have DRM and always WILL have some form of it.

3. Petabytes, eh? Going to be pretty expensive backing up all that material and you're going to have to because it's not a question of if your drives will fail. They will.

4. These magical servers will be fun to install and manage. Because we know how everyone over 40 is soooooo tech saavy.

5. Do you have a connection that allows you to download a solid 1080p product in less than 8-10 hours? That doesn't look like something HD you get from XBOX Live? (i.e. hypercompressed crap)

No, you don't. No one does. It's going to take a breakthrough or two in that regard in order to make that viable. And it's an investment that not many companies will be rushing to make, since, comparitively speaking the majority of the industry 'just finished' moving to fiber-op. Broadband still is far from ubiquitous, either.

[Changeling]

6. Your new way of collecting is going to be pretty expensive. Not just purchasing, but downloading. In case you haven't been paying attention to the industry paying for the bandwidth you suck up is going to become the norm pretty quick. Petabytes? More if even a small portion of that is HD. And when you lose it and want it back, sure Paramount or other studios may keep track of what you've bought and will let you reclaim it free, but do you think your ISP is going to say, "Awww , poor baby. Here, take our pipe for free and get your stuff back.

So you're effectively paying twice.

7. I can get books online, too. Why hasn't THAT replaced my bookstore? because more people than you think expect something tangible for their money.

The only thing in danger is the rental industry.

[MoeSart]

Blu Ray will fail ultimately because DVDs are good enough for most people. They're not interested in re-buying the titles they already have either and they're not interested in buying a Blu Ray player for $500 when they can buy a new DVD player for $25.

The music industry has tried to replace cds for years and have failed because cds are good enough for most people.

[BillSeward]

Even IF U4S wins a majority? SAG rules dictate the CURRENT negotiating team remains in place UNTIL A DEAL IS MADE. Translation: whatever happens in the election, MF's demands remain in place. The only scenario I can imagine that dictates Allen consciously leaving OUT any mention of DVD residuals? That, through back channels, there's a quid pro quo emerging: give us new media = no raise in the DVD rate. That's a trade Allen would, and SHOULD make - in a second. The new media terms are the biggest problem for SAG - by far.

[ProudLiberalDan]

UFS still deserves a chance. MF has been a disaster. We need to have a constructive relationship with AFTRA as they aren't going anywhere just because a few MF's throw a temper tantrum, scream, shout, and stomp their feet.

[BillSeward]

check out membershipfirst.com tonight, l.a. time. there will be a whole bunch of sobering info for all the u4s and aftra-huggers out there.