After Dell's earnings came out on August 21st, a lot of stock analysts have been comforting themselves by arguing that PC sales will get a big boost when Microsoft's Windows 8 releases this fall.
But are they right?
I think it's a big gamble to assume that consumers are going to rush out to buy Windows 8 devices. The early reviews of the Metro tile user-interface have found it to be confusing and anti-intuitive, forcing users to rethink how they operate a computer. These certainly aren't positives.
Remember the last time Microsoft introduced a radical change to its PC operating system? It was called Vista, and to say the 2007 OS launch flopped is to put it mildly. While I'm not saying that Windows 8 is bad in the way Vista was bad, it is worth pointing out that both were radical departures from the Windows operating system that - for good or for bad - people had grown accustomed to.
At the very least, it's going to take time for this new way of computing to take off. How long? My guess is about one year, if not longer. Which means four more quarters of weakening sales for PC makers ... Dell, HP, Toshiba, Lenovo, etc. It's possible we could see early interest in Windows 8 devices between the launch and the lead up to Christmas, but then I also think it's likely that a lot of these will be returned after the holidays, once consumers have had a chance to try the new operating system. Because when people who are used to Windows 7 or an older Windows OS actually start to use the Metro styled interface, they're going to find it confusing, get frustrated, and want their old experience back. Or maybe they'll just switch to Apple. The bottom line with consumers is that they just want a computer or tablet that works and is easy to use - that's it. Only a small percentage of users want a fancy interface. The majority of people just want to be able to turn on a computer or tablet and have it work. They don't want to learn a new way of doing things, which is exactly what they'll have to do if they get a Windows 8 for Christmas.
Whether or not the Metro tile interface eventually catches on is anyone's guess. I give it a 50/50 shot. But what I feel quite sure of is that in the short-term, Windows 8 is going to face strong headwinds which will keep the adoption rate low. Consumers will hesitate over the usability factor, especially after they hear from early adopter friends and colleagues. And enterprise customers are often two years out when it comes to switching operating systems, due to the dependency their proprietary software, applications and networks have on a legacy system.
Another key factor is the peripheral devices that are supported by Windows 8. In fact, this is really the key to the whole system Microsoft has designed. The idea is that Microsoft's Windows will be the first truly cross-platform operating system - able to work effortlessly on desktops, laptops, tablets and smartphones. The company's design team is hoping that this will work in Microsoft's favor on several fronts: reduce the cannibalization of PCs caused by tablets; win back mobile share from Apple and Samsung; and drive more business to its cloud services and Office products.
The problem is that Microsoft is facing huge odds on its mobile products. Will people really line up to buy a Windows tablet? They certainly haven't for the Microsoft/Nokia Lumia smartphone, which is only expected to reach 2 percent of the US marketshare by November, according to WMPowerUser. And the key to mobile products is apps, which Microsoft still doesn't have.
It's a huge gamble that Microsoft, and, by consequence, the entire PC industry are placing on a strange new operating system that is as yet untested in the consumer marketplace.
Here are my six predictions for Windows 8:
I love playing Old Republic on my 27 inch screen with my tower pc with top line vid card.
I'll likely stop using computers altogether if all that's available someday are phones or ipads.
In a battle between Android and IOS, IOS is dooooomed.
Why - simple, Google bought the rights to the mobile phone from Motorola. That's why Apple is going after Samsung, they know that if they go anywhere near the 2 tonne gorilla that is Google they will lose, big time. If Google decide to pull the plug on Apple, they can!
As for the predictions above, it's early days, but I suspect:
1. Business will skip win 8 choosing to stay with win 7 possibly going to win 9 or server. We skipped Vista entirely for Win7.
2. Laptop sales will make a slight come back, there will always be a need for that form factor (especially for Business), however the heady days are gone, most home users are happy with an iPad.
3. The WinPad is unlikely to take off, same as WinPhone and Zune never did. It's not got iPad Qudos, iPad apps, iPad form factor or iPad useability.
Of course I could be very wrong, MS has come back from the brink to dominate a market before. However I believe Win 8 will be for geeks only, for most people it will be too complicated and too niche.
:-)
Metro of course is a bit marred by the lack of mature apps; again here the 'forced marriage' to the old Desktop will make it easier for developers to take the plunge, as there is a potentially huge market out there.
Finally, be careful calling stuff a failure. Vista was a failure by Microsoft's standards. And yet, as of today there are still more vista computers out there than *ALL* MacOS versions combined. (I looked it up) And that's for an old release that was a failure.
There are literally dozens of keyboard covers available for any table you might want.
Count me among the highly skeptical that MS can actually make these things and ship them in mega quantities in 2012.
Microsoft's true market-base does NOT depend upon "the current release-level of Microsoft Windows that is installed on this-or-that server," any more or less than what version of OS/X is installed on ... any more or less than which version of Z/OS is installed on ...
... because "the true market-base for Microsoft (OS/X .. Z/OS ...)" is NOT(!) based on "the (consumer...) PC."
There was a reason HP almost dropped their consumer PC division.
The PC world is heavily affected by what the corporate world is currently doing. The corporate world has a huge amount of risk going into 2013 that just got much worse with food shortages that will have a ripple effect on the economy. The last thing they are going to do is order thousands of new computers, ecspecially with an OS change coming up.
You will never see the PC go away. It just might become more dependant on the market using it for work. The Apple computer is just too expensive on the hardware side, and doesn't have any viable options on 90% of the highly customized business software to kill that market unless they drastically change their focus.
The whole "save the pc" is the idea of trying to make windows easier to use so less people go through the trouble of switching to mac (because more and more people are). I think windows 8 is great all in all, but I think a lot of windows users will be going WTF? I mean, Microsoft has definitely taken a huge leap in the right direction, but I think that computer users will take a while to adjust. Because of this, I don't think most companies/people will upgrade for a while, and home users may find the new windows so confusing (Because, again, america is not tech-savvy) that they might switch to mac.
In any event, Apple will continue to not have any part of that market as long as they refuse to have any decent enterprise solutions (either for servers or large scale deployment).
I agree with you about cloud computing and using a browser for access. It makes so much sense architecturally, is simple, and is platform agnostic, which I love.
Reason number two is the software. The business world doesn't use software like normal people. They don't just load it up and run with it. They spend millions of dollars getting it customized to do exactly what they need it to. There is a wide base of customizable products that run on Unix and Windows machines for business needs. The Apple doesn't have this. I'm not talking word processors. I'm talking enterprise management systems. Windows is the cheapest route to go on simply because there are more choices and programming in .Net is far cheaper than programming in objective C. Some form of Linux is the rare fall back choice if the expense of Windows licencing becomes too much for the small business.
The only people that seem to choose Apple on a regular basis are the graphic artists, but the software they need is readily available for the same price on Apple in the form they need it. There is more going on than just an operating system.
Windows won that war in the 90's.
The new front is mobile computing.
So far MS has lost every battle for smartphones and tablets.
With Windows 8 they are going to try and leverage their PC dominance in the Post-PC markets.
IF they fail to do that with Windows 8 they won't get another chance with Windows 9.
MS will always dominate the PC market but the market will continue to do nothing but shrink in the 21st Century.
Windows 8 is a make or break move for MS' future growth.
As long as there is no alternative to MS Office, MS Windows, any version, will be the default solution for the corporate desktop. And that is where the real money is.
Where's the REAL money again?
PC sales are shrinking and will continue to do so.
That is why we are living in the Post PC Era.
Unless MS finds a way to successfully leverage their dominance in the PC to the Post PC mobile computing markets they will watch their gross revenue slowly but surly decline.
Windows 8 is a make or break product for MS' future growth.They may very well succeed and the Apple's court victory over Samsung may give Microsoft a boost but MS is All In on Windows 8.