Tomorrow is a significant day for the Democratic presidential race: the unions of the AFL-CIO will be freed up to endorse candidates. But, I suspect that a number of unions may hold back, at least until after Labor Day. Here are a few guesses, some based on information and some wildly speculative and pulled out of my...
All the AFL-CIO unions respected the internal process of the AFL-CIO, which dictated that individual endorsements not be made until after the federation's executive council met in Chicago today and tomorrow; tonight there is an AFL-CIO-sponsored presidential debate at Soldiers' Field in Chicago where, if the thunderstorms stay away, 15,000 union members are expected to attend. To get the federation's overall endorsement, a candidate would need to nail down support from two-thirds of the unions in the AFL-CIO. That isn't likely to happen, as much because a number of unions want to stay uncommitted to see how the race unfolds.
To state the obvious, labor support means troops and money to get out the vote. It's particular crucial in caucus states like Iowa and Nevada. At this point, the conventional perception is that, if unions went with their heart, they'd endorse John Edwards. But, many of the union leaders are being influenced by the measures that are influencing the media coverage and some public perceptions: polls, money and celebrity. And, as a result, some of the unions might decide to stay neutral for some time and, perhaps, even stay out of the primary fight period.
I would also say that Hillary Clinton has a significant base of support within certain unions. But, two things are hurting her. First, a number of unions still don't trust her instincts on trade, which, for a number of unions, is a bottom line issue. Though she announced that she would oppose the South Korea so-called "free trade" deal, there is still a lingering suspicion, fairly or not, that she is much more likely to mimic Bill Clinton's support for so-called "free trade" (after all, NAFTA was promoted and pushed by Bill Clinton... And as an aside, Robert Reich, Clinton's labor secretary); unions have no desire to see more "liberals" elected who will push bad trade deals. Second, she can't shake the stories that have linked her senior advisor Mark Penn to public relations work that was done for anti-union companies (in fact, there is yet another story on the subject in today's Los Angeles Times); that fact, whether relevant or significant or not, is still lingering in the background.
So, all that being said, here's a look at where some of the unions might go (I'll update this in the future)
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME): huge endorsement because AFSCME workers are everywhere. I gather that Clinton, Obama and Edwards have strong support in particular parts of the country. The union's president, Gerry McEntee, does not want a repeat of 2004, when he jumped publicly from candidate to candidate (and publicly called his at-the-time choice Howard Dean "crazy" after the Iowa caucuses). Wants to be with the winner so may wait a bit before jumping in.
Steelworkers: almost surely likely to endorse Edwards. Steelworkers' president Leo Gerard is one of the most vocal opponents in labor to so-called "free trade." Very important resource for the Iowa caucuses.
Firefighters: One of the most active unions in politics, you almost couldn't watch John Kerry give a speech at a rally without seeing a sea of Firefighter T-Shirts surrounding him, even in the days when Kerry was polling poorly in the primaries. Dunno. I'd guess this is between Edwards and Clinton.
American Federation of Teachers: If I had to guess, if the union makes an endorsement, it would be Clinton. Sen. Clinton is very close to Randi Weingarten, the president of the huge New York city teachers' affiliate. But...the AFT has chapters in all 50 states and many of the candidates have very passionate supporters (Sen. Dodd, for example, is a favorite of the Connecticut teachers). So, it would not be surprising if the union holds back for a bit.
International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers: this is not a large union but it is one of the fastest growing, percentage-wise. The union's leadership is furious at Clinton for her support for expanding the H-1B visa quotas--which IFPTE believes costs their members jobs by increasing the number of foreign engineers. I suspect they would endorse Edwards, if anyone.
Transport Workers Union: likely Edwards.
While we are on the topic of union endorsements, what are the Change To Win federation unions likely to do? The CTW internal process requires that before any of the seven CTW unions endorses, it has to raise the endorsement at a meeting of the CTW board. Such a meeting is taking place tomorrow in Washington, D.C. but endorsements aren't likely to be on the table because each of the unions has its own internal process to go through. However, CTW has a convention on Sept. 24th in Chicago and its entirely possible that endorsements will be annou
Service Employees International Union: very strongly leaning towards Edwards. But, it has an internal process which is underway. SEIU's leaders are not thrilled that Clinton missed the union's August 1 deadline for the presentation of each candidate's health care plan. Obama has very strong support from the Illinois SEIU leadership, in particular, Tom Balanoff, President of SEIU Local 1 in Chicago.
UNITE-HERE: almost certainly Edwards. That will be a big boon for Edwards in the Nevada caucuses because of the huge union presence in Las Vegas.
Teamsters: certainly leaning towards Edwards, primarily because of the trade issue. But, both Obama and Clinton have very strong home-town Teamster support. The Teamsters have a board meeting one week before the September CTW convention so look for some signal at that meeting.
Carpenters: very strong for Edwards. Might be the first CTW union to announce an endorsement.
Laborers: I suspect that the union is leaning towards Edwards.
United Food and Commercial Workers: the UFCW has a board meeting just before the CTW convention so look for something to perhaps emerge from then. Edwards took part in the anti-Wal-Mart bus trip so he has a large reservoir of good will there.
The bottom line, however, is that there is a strong desire within labor to retake the White House so, like many of the Democratic constituencies, the labor movement is ready to work hard for whoever emerges from the fray.