The Wrath of Suburbanites and Independents

Suburbanites and independent voters in Virginia and New Jersey broke Republican in yesterday's election. Last night I saw CNN's John King tell his viewers that this phenomenon could only mean that people are sending a signal to President Barack Obama that they're fed up with "all that spending" in Washington. King's assertion is interesting because it sounds a lot like the Republican talking point we'll hear flogged endlessly today and it comes from a network that prides itself on being neither FOX nor MSNBC. But I think the election results show that in today's miserable economic context no incumbent governor (or incumbent party) managing a state or province can escape the wrath of an electorate that continues to bleed and suffer while it watches its tax dollars squandered on foreign wars and Wall Street fat cats.

Any governor facing voters at a time when teachers are being fired, parks closed, and services discontinued, when people are unemployed, losing their homes and without adequate health care, is bound to have a difficult time. Here in California, if Arnold Schwarzenegger were up for re-election, with his abysmal 27 percent approval rating, he'd get clobbered. I heard that Jon Corzine's rating was 39 percent (Arnold would call that number evidence of a mandate). What Virginia and New Jersey show is that the inaction on the economy in real terms coming from Congress and the Obama administration is taking its toll. It's nice to hear all that talk about "economic stimulus" and "public options" for those who need health care, but so far Washington inertia has failed to deliver any concrete gains to ordinary people. And if this trend continues into the midterm election season of 2010 I wouldn't be surprised if more incumbents go down in flames when the voters have an opportunity to vote their rage.

The public's anger arises from the sense that Washington only serves the interests of the rich and powerful while the middle class gets bupkis. When was the last time the federal government did anything for the working middle class? Stagnant wages and salaries, depleted pensions, soaring health care, college, and housing costs, predatory lending, gouging of every kind imaginable from creditors. Consumer "confidence" is a foreign concept. The Great Wall Street Rip-Off of 2007-2008 broke the back of the American middle class. Most people were just treading water before Wall Street ran away with a large chunk of the country's wealth. The only lesson from yesterday's voting is that people want to throw the bums out and this sentiment will only build through 2010.

In 2010 the Democrats will lose House and Senate seats -- the only question is: How many? If the Congress continues on its do-nothing 1994-deja vu course -- whether due to bureaucratic inertia, Blue Dog obstruction, or political miscalculation -- the Democrats will lose their majority in one or both chambers of Congress. And they will deserve to lose their majority just as they deserved to lose it back in 1994.

Foreign wars and occupations of basket-case countries where every additional one thousand soldiers costs the nation an additional $1 billion a year. Trillions of dollars in bailouts, corporate welfare, and loan guarantees forked over to a clique of filthy rich, undeserving, white collar criminals on Wall Street. These are things that do not make good public policy and the American people understand this fact. Ordinary working people deserve to get something in return for their hard-earned tax dollars but so far all they've gotten is foreclosed homes, job losses, shoddy access to medical care, and uncertain futures.

The only "good" news for Democrats was New York's 23rd district. Now at least they have one more seat they can afford to lose in 2010. In Maine, the rollback of gay rights shows that these rights must be won in the courts, not at the ballot box.

During the 2008 presidential campaign Obama tapped into this same anger and won big. After he turned over the economy to Tim Geithner and Larry Summers it just looks like business as usual. Wall Street pays out billions of dollars in bonuses regardless of performance and has already begun securitizing about $18 billion worth of peoples' life insurance policies betting (indeed hoping) people will die earlier than expected, and speculators are once again hedging those bets with credit default swaps. Lukewarm regulations are the talk of Washington but so far nothing has come out of the Democratic Congress with any real teeth. Bob Gates continues Bush's ill-conceived wars unabated and the Treasury Department is full of Alan Greenspan retreads. These are the reasons people are angry and will take it out on incumbents in 2010, not because of "all that spending" in Washington or any fondness for the Republicans.

 

Follow Joseph A. Palermo on Twitter: www.twitter.com/N/A

Comments

[Joseph Palermo - Huffpost Blogger]

It's still too early to say anything definitive about where the Obama presidency is going. Reagan had a 42 percent approval in August 1982 and the Republicans lost 27 House seats in November -- in Dec '82 the unemployment rate was 10.8 percent -- so we have a long way to go yet with the Obama presidency. His numbers can slide and he can still be successful. If one Wall Street guy went to jail and maybe one Bush official that would be something -- we don't get "closure," like on Oprah.

[Kasado]

Where were American's concerns when Ron Paul was snubbed by almost every political pundent as a kook?
We deserve everything that happens to this country, since we always seem to desert intelligent capable candidates in favor of big promising, smooth talking, affable celebrity types for our elected officials.

[Carl Caroli]

Add to that a simple example. I bought a home in Ocean County, NJ a little over a year ago. Since then the value of my home has decreased roughly 10%. There have been 2 special ballot initiatives since I moved here calling for an increase in property taxes to fund school improvements. Both were defeated. My property taxes were raised 10% anyway. NJ already has the highest property taxes, and every gubernatorial candidate in the last zillion years promises to reduce them and then breaks that promise. There is no accountability anywhere in our local, state or federal government. Everyone I know went to the polls holding their nose and picking the lesser of evils. The public is tired of the two corrupt parties catering to the money and power brokers while ignoring the needs of the people. I'm starting to think we that since we now have sophisticated voting technology, we should have fewer corrupt representatives and more direct voting on budgets, issues, referendums and laws. If they don't represent the will of people and live up to their promises, we don't need them, period.

[propitiousmoment]

California is a complete mess because of the direct voting process, starting with Prop. 13. Most people do not read the propositions and referendums carefully enough or with enough expertise to figure out the downside in the long term or where the hook is that makes the bill either unconstitutional or impractical. Be careful what you wish for.

[realpolitic]

John King or CNN probably did not mention deficits the whole time that Bush was in office. Most of the Obama deficits until now are a holdover from the Bush administration- the foreign wars, unaffordable tax cuts for the wealthy, Medicare drug benefits that were not paid for. Again, no one mentioned deficits during the Bush two terms and strangely, with a Democrat in office, pundits have discovered deficits again.

[TRex86]

Last night was no tragedy. It underscored the chestnut that all politics is local, highlighting the differences between state and federal governance, particularly the inabliity of states to run deficit financing. At the state level old time conservatism makes sense in terms of not spending what you don't have (a lesson Arnie failed to learn). At the federal level deficit spending allowed Republicans to go crazy for 25 years, running up the federal debt from under one trillion in 1981 to 10.6 trillion in 2008, bribing their supporters with no bid contracts and tax cuts but hardly a vision of conservative probity.
Obama couldn't salvage New Jersey (Virginia was hopelessly quirky) because he failed to unburden the financially strapped populous states via direct grants, changes in Medicaid, cutting unfunded mandates, etc. The good news was the NY 23rd, which showed that crackpot Republicanism doesn't work even in congenitally Republican districts. The pundits will offer their vacuous "horserace" analysis, but the truth is the Republicans are brain dead. They have nothing left.

[joebaggadonuts]

Completely on target, Joseph, thank you!

Winning elections is about listening to the people's concerns and having a believable plan for solving their problems and resolving favorably their concerns. Party affiliation and ideological bent are cover stories. The public knows that, now more than ever. If this election proves anything it proves that people want solutions and honest politicians who will work tirelessly and successfully to implement those solutions or at the very least not be corrupt and not screw up what already is working for them. While the public can hardly predict the future, they are finally starting to understand the now, and they are pissed off about it.

[Joseph Palermo - Huffpost Blogger]

I find myself to be pretty angry so I figure many other people are too -- California is a failed state and the 2010 election will be very low turn-out I assure you -- I'm not going to be knocking on any doors for any of those charlatans. Yawn.

[Polly]

could you please send this article to the White House - Please President Obama pay attention. I am so sad to see that the change I voted for was just more of the same for the rich 1% of this nation. Your article is right on!!!

[quietfortoolong2]

The quest for bipartisanship will lead to epic failure. The Bible says that one cannot serve 2 Masters. Obama and the Dems are trying to serve the Republicans who are determined to see them fail, at the expense of the Will of the People, who desperately need them to succeed.

Only one of those 2 groups decides who gets to be in government in 2011, and right now that group is getting the dirty end of the stick.

[den1953]

This is one warning shot to the administration that you are trying to hard to pander to the Republicans on the bills you want to write you aren't going to get the two party's to agree the Republicans are saying no to every thing people want change and jobs. I hope in a way the Republicans block health care and they take the blame for a bill they forced the Obama administration to water down the bill. When the people realize what is the real truth people will vote them out, this administration has to get this country back to work when that happens every thing else will be easier!

[Joe The Nerd Ferraro - Huffpost Blogger]

dude,
you are really on target for most of the analysis for the future. however, i think the nj race being anything other than voters rejecting corzine may be overreaching.

corzine didn't connect. a banker by trade (strike one in this environment), who lost part of his term because he was speeding without wearing his seat belt (strike 2 for stupidity and flaunting the law) who ran against a challenger (strike 3 for not running on his own record as an incumbent).

corzine did not give voters reason enough to take another 4 years. christie, is a more likable guy than corzine. some of the pundits went after musical tastes pinning christie to springsteen and corzine to bon jovi. (does bon jovi still owe fans of the defunkt philadelphia soul a concert?)

corzine's fat boy campaign may have turned a number of people away too.

[Pablo175]

New Jersey is solid Blue. Dems control everything. BO won by 15 points. Obama, Biden et al campaigned aggressively.

Shocking loss.

[Joe The Nerd Ferraro - Huffpost Blogger]

i am not all that shocked, Florio lost in a similar was. NJ is more independent than blue.

if you sell something of substance, nj will buy. corzine didn't close the deal as far as what he was selling - just ran negative... there was nothing to buy.

[jasper48]

HuffPost's Pick

The most dynamic and substantive move Obama could make at this point in time,
would be by getting rid of Summers and Geithner,and replacing them with
Elizabeth Warren and Sheilas Bair. Watch the fur fly, if that were done.

IMHO

[Joseph Palermo - Huffpost Blogger]

jasper, that is a great idea! I'd throw in William Black too as an assistant treasury sec

[jasper48]

Stiglitz, Krugman, Volker, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.*

*Homage to Yul Brenner.

[Carl Caroli]

It certainly would help my opinion of him.

[iridium53]

Thank you. Largely agree.

Apparently, Obama hasn't gotten the idea that it's the economy.

Albert Einstein once said “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”.

Yet, Obama is working hard (like George Bush he really likes saying that) at doing the same thing with the same people.

Obama is a great speaker. At this point, however, it seems that is the sum of his qualities. It is, increasingly, looking like he's an unprincipled, effete politician eager to kowtow to big corporate interests.

[Joseph Palermo - Huffpost Blogger]

Wait until he announces he's sending more troops to Afghanistan, watch his approval rating plummet.

[confidance government]

When even George Will is questioning the war, Obama has to realize that there is no popular support for continuing it, let alone expanding it.