American Decline?

Several observers have attributed the disappointing results from the recent G20 summit to the decline of American power. Polls show that some 60 per cent of Americans believe the country is in decline. But polls showed similar belief in national decline in the 1950s after the Soviets launched sputnik; in the 1970s after Nixon ended the convertibilty of the dollar into gold, and in the late 1980s after Reagan's budget deficits.

These attitudes tell us more about American psychology than about changes in our power resources. And we tend to interpret history through a golden glow of the past. It is worth remembering that when American was an alleged hegemon in the first decades after World War II, we were unable to prevent the "loss of China"; win the Korean or Vietnam Wars; stop DeGaulle from withdrawing from the NATO military structure, or remove the Castro regime in Cuba -- among other things!

In the lead article in the November issue of Foreign Affairs, "The Future of American Power," (which is based on evidence in my book, The Future of Power, which Public Affairs Press will publish on February 1) I argue that we need to go beyond the tired narratives of hegemony or decline if we are to develop a smart strategy of using networks to exercise power in a cyber age. The current conventional wisdom about decline is an impediment to the new thinking we need.