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Joseph Nye

Joseph Nye

Posted: November 16, 2010 09:38 AM

American Decline?

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Several observers have attributed the disappointing results from the recent G20 summit to the decline of American power. Polls show that some 60 per cent of Americans believe the country is in decline. But polls showed similar belief in national decline in the 1950s after the Soviets launched sputnik; in the 1970s after Nixon ended the convertibilty of the dollar into gold, and in the late 1980s after Reagan's budget deficits.

These attitudes tell us more about American psychology than about changes in our power resources. And we tend to interpret history through a golden glow of the past. It is worth remembering that when American was an alleged hegemon in the first decades after World War II, we were unable to prevent the "loss of China"; win the Korean or Vietnam Wars; stop DeGaulle from withdrawing from the NATO military structure, or remove the Castro regime in Cuba -- among other things!

In the lead article in the November issue of Foreign Affairs, "The Future of American Power," (which is based on evidence in my book, The Future of Power, which Public Affairs Press will publish on February 1) I argue that we need to go beyond the tired narratives of hegemony or decline if we are to develop a smart strategy of using networks to exercise power in a cyber age. The current conventional wisdom about decline is an impediment to the new thinking we need.

 
 
 
 
 
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10:29 AM on 11/17/2010
I think there is a disconnect here? The professor's audience is most likely those studying diplomacy in the Kennedy school of government rather than the average joe. The academics may argue about the pros/cons of US being a hegemon, the past of US glories, etc, but all of that has little to do with most Americans who are complaining. For the most part Americans are complaining because they feel that their living standard is declining, that they can't find jobs which can afford them the American dream (home + car), or even to cover their health for them and their entire family.
09:20 PM on 11/16/2010
Well, yes, probably. When I was six, it was the Russian who were taking over. When I was twenty-six, we were supposed to be afraid of the Japanese. Strangely enough, neither seem to be ruling the world today.

But, still, we could be in decline...IF we don't address some fundamental flaws in our economy, like getting our energy costs down, and addressing the ills of our ( fantastically stupid) practice of de-industrialization, off-shoring, and outsourcing.

http://explosive-cargo.blogspot.com/2010/11/few-words-about-robots.html
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Photon55
09:13 PM on 11/16/2010
The race to the moon was part of the "cold war" wherin the adversaries were at the top of their game. Even though the US came in second for a short time we immediately caught up and surpassed tthe Soviets. The economy was never in serious doubt as it is today. Our current economic plight can only be compared to the first republican depression of the '20-30's but this one has the impetus to top that one by a wide margin and decline is not a fantasy.
thebigbike
ran away to be a cowboy
07:29 PM on 11/16/2010
....."a smart strategy of using networks to exercise power in a cyber age." What about the failed "states" with no "cyber" to them? Somehow I have trouble imagining ubiquitous lap tops and high speed braedband in every little afghan village. I'm sure there are some in Kabul and Kandahr and Herat, but.......


I guess I will need to read the article to understand what his point it.
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cheryl tobin
Alpha Dog with my pack!
04:10 PM on 11/16/2010
I'm 63 years old and I have never felt America was in a decline until now nor do I know anyone that felt that way in the 50's,70's or 80's. Where did the Professor get these polls and was the same questioned asked to the same amount of people? Documentation please!
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guveqzero
Inventor and Innovator
01:39 PM on 11/16/2010
But, the professor doesn't know, the US has been exporting it's technology all over the world. And with it, jobs. The problem is not psychology, it's real this time. Professors, especially from Harvard, are destroying the country through their ignorance and perpetuation that the problem is imaginary or emotional. Sorry, but this time is not like sputnik or the change off the gold standard. Jobs, skilled ones, have been lost forever under your watch.