More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Joseph Nye

Joseph Nye

Posted: January 17, 2011 06:33 PM

I have just returned from Beijing and found that many Chinese believe that China should be less deferential to the US because they think the United States is in decline. As I show in detail in my new book, The Future of Power, this Chinese view is mistaken and China is unlikely to equal American economic, military or soft power for decades to come.

Nonetheless, overconfidence has led to more assertive Chinese foreign policy behavior in the last two years that alienated the Obama administration. China stage-managed Obama's trip to Beijing in November 2009 in a heavy handed way; it over-reacted to Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama, and the administration's long expected and relatively modest arms sales to Taiwan. Last week, the Chinese military chose to test its new stealth fighter just as Defense Secretary Gates was calling on President Hu Jintao.

China's new assertiveness has also affected its relations with other countries. Its policies in the South China Sea created fear among the ASEAN nations; and its over-reaction after a ship collision near the Senkaku Islands put an end to the Democratic Party of Japan's hopes for a closer relationship with China.

Beijing alienated South Korea by failing to criticize North Korea's shelling of a South Korean island; irritated India over border and passport issues; and embarrassed itself in Europe and elsewhere by over-reacting to the Nobel Peace Prize granted to the jailed dissident Liu Xiaobo.

This is the backdrop for this week's Washington summit. President Hu Jintao's stated desire to cooperate on terrorism, non-proliferation, and clean energy could help to lead to a reduction of tensions, but powerful domestic interest groups in the export industries and in the People's Liberation Army will limit economic or naval cooperation.

And most important, given the nationalism that one sees in the blogosphere in China, it will be difficult for Chinese top leaders to change their policies too dramatically. Since both countries have more to gain from cooperation than conflict, we must hope that Hu's state visit goes well.

 
 
 

Follow Joseph Nye on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Joe_Nye

I have just returned from Beijing and found that many Chinese believe that China should be less deferential to the US because they think the United States is in decline. As I show in detail in my new ...
I have just returned from Beijing and found that many Chinese believe that China should be less deferential to the US because they think the United States is in decline. As I show in detail in my new ...
 
 
  • Comments
  • 126
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2 3 4  Next ›  Last »  (4 total)
04:58 PM on 01/23/2011
Speaking of soft power and culture, one of the concepts that spread from ancient China to Japan and Korea was the Confucian idea of the perfectibility of man, where through education and sheer force of will one could elevate one's social and moral status. This was a revolutionary concept 2,500 years ago, because it implies that everyone can rise to the top--disrupting the power structure. Indeed, Confucius himself said that "By nature all men are essentially alike; it is learning and practice that set them apart." He tried to get the ruling elite to dole out power and position according to ability and not through birthright. This set the stage for a meritocracy-based social and political system, institutionalized in the civil service examination system, that spread throughout Asia--again, not through force, but by the compelling nature of this universal idea.
We in America share this belief in meritocracy, which is based in turn on the belief that everyone can elevate their status if given the shot. We share other fundamental beliefs and ideals that we should emphasize especially while discussing our differences with this emerging nation. In this way, we can form a more meaningful, lasting partnership.
04:42 PM on 01/23/2011
How did China become the most influential power in Asia during the ancient and middle ages? How did Japan, Korea, Thailand, etc. become heavily sinicized? Not through conquest, but through SOFT power. Indeed it was through the strength of Chinese culture, which, for example, exhibited an eclectic mix of both foreign and indigenous religions--a sign of tolerance and cosmopolitanism--that attracted so many from faraway lands to study there and bring back what they learned.
Henry Kissinger said last week that "In 4,000 years...China has never had a history where it has to dominate the world." Nevertheless, it exerted powerful influence throughout the ages. How? Through soft power. We should bear this mind in our dealings with China, and cultivate this longstanding Chinese tendency to exert its influence in peaceful ways--through its art, culture, philosophy, and ideas.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mightylou1
12:14 PM on 01/19/2011
China with a billion people will overcome America in less than a decade. They also have a better educational system. Why should they provide jobs in America when they have people in China who need jobs. They own us we do not own them. Why can we talk about Human Rights when some in our country defile the President. Why should they open their markets to us when their own markets will be open to all of their people. They don't need us we need them. Americans are so busy fighting Americans, e.g., Republicans vs Democrats and the Rich vs the Poor, Wall Street vs Main Street. They will never outsource their jobs to us, but we in America outsource our jobs to them, so that the richest Americans can continue to get rich. We in America know how to shoot our selves in the foot daily.
11:29 AM on 01/19/2011
So the US is and will remain militarily superior to China. That means then that the US could win a war against China ?
Define "win".
The US has the stronger economy ? So they can win an economic war ? Again...Define "win"
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
09:31 AM on 01/19/2011
Pardon my foreign diplomacy ignorance but I'm hoping someone can tell me, if China is in effect cheating on the trade agreement with respect to consumer market accessibility and currency value manipulation, then why isn't Obama reinstatiating an import tax for goods coming from China? I've only heard junk arguments, hundreds of thousands of US jobs in exports to China is irrelevent when millions of jobs are lost from imports, we have a trade deficit with them which only means they're dependent on us, etc.
08:51 AM on 01/19/2011
Joseph Nye, a Harvard prof, should have a bit more sense. While no one knows for sure when China's economy will top that of the USA, under current development it will be in less time than "decades to come". In 2005, it was said that Chinese car production would top that of the USA in 2015. In fact that happenend last year! The same rapid development can be expected of the entire economy.
And what is assertive about attempting to influence the countries and regions adjacent to China ? With US bases in Korea, Japan, Guam, Afghanistan, with naval and air forces "patrolling" China's continantal shelf waters, it is China who should feel threatened by the US. How would Americans feel if the Chinese navy and air force patrolled America's coastal waters and if there were Chniese bases in Mexico and other nearby places , and if the Chinese military budget was bigger than the military budgets of all the next 20 countries combined ?
And all that talk about the undervalued Yuan, one only needs to look at the development of the EURO "value". From 80 Euro cents to one dollar in 2001 the Euro about doubled in value to 1.6 Dollar to one Euro in just a few years and EURO zone exports still climbed.
The reason for China's success is not the undervalued Yuan but competition, capitalism (!), enterprise, and a population longing for a better life and willing to work hard for that.
02:56 AM on 01/19/2011
I agree that China's assertiveness in global and regional issues vis-a-vis America and other great powers like India does not augur well for a stable and peaceful world order. As an "unsatisfied power", China entertains a deeply engrained ambition to emerge as a superpower next to the United States and then to replace it , may be in three-four decades, through its well-planned, well -crafted, well- coordinated and well -executed multipronged strategy. Moreover, China's geopsychological impluses also dominate its foreign policy and diplomacy to outmanoeuvre the United States in the Asia-Pacific region in which America's declning power and influence is already perceptible. Moroever, China , unlike the United States, is not militarily involved in the theatres of wars that not only saves China's energy and resources but also enables it to cultivate its sturdy ties with those countries and regions which are either hostile or unfriendly to the US. America needs to reorient its diplomacy not only to serve its national interests better but also to deny a political , economic and strategic space to China on the global and regional tapestries.
Prof. BM Jain
Author of Global Power : India's Foreign Policy(Lexington Books, 2008); India in the New South Asia: Strategic, Military and Economic Concerns in the Age of Diplomacy( IB Tauris, London 2010)
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Fractal122635
02:17 AM on 01/19/2011
this Chinese view is mistaken and China is unlikely to equal American economic, military or soft power for decades to come."

It is this kind of self delusion that is, and continues to be at the heart of American foreign policy mistakes. Just as the refusal to acknowledge the danger of Islamo-fascism, perhaps the professor has not watched the news recently.

It is the Chinese that now own the world's fastest (by powers of 100's) supercomputer, the exact technology used for improved military and civilian progress, stealth technology and are graduation engineers at a rate that is also in the 100's times the US.

The day is here, and if the Chinese decided to be "less deferential" to the US, there would be no consequences to them, only to us.

Perhaps the professor also forgets that the US is now the history's largest debtor nation, the Chinese the world's largest creditor.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
09:38 AM on 01/19/2011
Not quite the whole truth, China is dependent on the US consumer market. China is not a consumer of products, their economic traction is coming from the US. And cut off from this, there certainly would be consequences.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Fractal122635
02:06 PM on 01/20/2011
Their "dependence" on our consumer markets is exactly the point. We send money to them, which they then send back to us in the forms of loans, collecting interest, and making us more dependent on them.
As soon as they complete the transformation from an agrarian economy to a technological one, they will be the significant consumers of their own products.

Why do you think US companies are so desperate to get into the Chinese market?
09:31 PM on 01/18/2011
Chinese want to be more differential from the US? Meaning they want to be more like the US. Why would the Chinese want to be more like the US if they think we are in decline? I don't get it.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Charles Shackelford
07:36 PM on 01/18/2011
The NPR interview with Sec. Geittner found me surprised to agree with him on the issue of China. Obama is much better in his diplomatic initiatives than his predecessor and hosting Hu Jintao to a state dinner is a good touch, considering he feted Obama in 2009. We are much better positioned for the future than China in many ways and enjoy leverage in ways which seem unimaginable now. They need us more than we need them, ultimately, and we should be candid and direct in thwarting their ambitions at every step when in conflict with our national security and economic interests. That there is such a trade imbalance with China is troubling and I agree we as a nation should show the will to renew our domestic manufacturing capacity, but until we grow up as a society and deal with some basics with respect to our health care dilemma and the issue of living wages, we will continue to be enslaved to shopping for cheap goods at Wal Mart. Our debt to China is a paper balance sheet and if they cheat with their currency, and do not play by the rules of capitalist nations, democratic societies with human rights and environmental laws, then we are within our rights to forfeit on our debt if China does not negotiate in good faith. We should be polite but blunt about this as well as intellectual property issues.
07:50 PM on 01/18/2011
Chinese made every day products they can sell to any country on this planet whether US consumer buy from them or not. US made product is not affordable to 90% of the world population.

US can not make $1 or $2 items unless you are willing to work for $5 an hour or less.
11:54 PM on 01/18/2011
"US can not make $1 or $2 items unless you are willing to work for $5 an hour or less."--nevillo

Well, we're working at it. A few more immigrants, a few less jobs, a lot more middle class joining the poor, and you'll have a nice fat portion of the country working for nothing in no time.

On the other hand, China is attempting to do something the US, Europe, and Japan took decades to accomplish. The rape of their lands alone for raw materials is phenomenal, but then you have to consider the literal destruction of much of their internal culture, the gross lack of medical care available for people who are literally choking to death on filth daily, and the fact that all of the wealth being produced within the country isn't actually reaching most of it.

It may take a while. But there will be a breaking point. And if we know anything about Chinese history regarding breaking points, it won't be very pretty.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
09:46 AM on 01/19/2011
A couple of points, you mean US corporations manufacturing in China (cheap labor) and second, I'm not sure there is any country that spends like Americans. I vote for officially rescinding favored nation status for trading if they're going to ignore the agreement anyways.
06:35 PM on 01/18/2011
Unfortunately, perceived weakness in one's opponent has started most wars. Let's face it. One does not start a fight with someone you think is capable stomping you, be it at the nation level or personal level.
CornellDublier
Historical facts are tuff on Republican­s.”
05:00 PM on 01/18/2011
What is produced in China is just that MADE IN CHINA. It is all a fabricated mess and we as American consumers must realize that if it was not for us falling in love with MADE IN CHINA this would be a non issue. Work hard at buying American made products and help restore the pride of American craftmanship back into the the American way of life. You want to live better longer? Support American made products the MADE IN CHINA products are killing us in more ways then one!
06:50 PM on 01/18/2011
I agree that made in China means junk and they are laughing all the way to the bank and writing checks to buy the worlds resources with their American dollars.
07:54 PM on 01/18/2011
The product they make may be junk to you but to %90 of the population on this planet are not.

Remember you only pay a few $ not thousands $.
09:02 AM on 01/19/2011
if you think that "made in China" means junk - then you have not been to China. Indeed China makes that junk that is wanted and bought in the West (and in China too), but China also makes high value goods: people in Space, high speed trains, bridges bridging vast stretches of ocean, beautiful printing, almost all Apple products and most of the worlds computers, - and - as learned yesterday, the chinaware for William's wedding.
Just like in the USA, China has everything, the very best and the very worst. There is one big difference though - they want to get rid of the very worst and in many ways are doing that.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jstrate
04:15 PM on 01/18/2011
Since when have the Chinese been deferential to the U.S.? Their civilization is a few thousand years older than our own. Their people are smarter. Their population is three times our size. Their economic growth rate is higher. Their military is improving. It doesn't sound like Hu wants to talk about human rights. He already hears more than he wants to from his own people on that topic.
03:32 PM on 01/18/2011
HuffPost ReportsPeter S. Goodman
Obama's Bogus Explanation For Economic Troubles
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Dear HP,
Do you view the President as some type of phony imposter or something of that nature, that you would feel comfortable in running this type of DISRESPECTFUL headline about him?

THIS IS NOT A CRITICISM, rather an honest inquiry. So many are wondering why MSM feels so totally comfrtable with the disrespect shown to this POTUS on a daily basis.

Are their grounds for impeachement possibly, If so, Inform us about it, that's all we ask.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
09:50 AM on 01/19/2011
Because he's not playing hardball to protect our interests when we're cheated. Not likely to be impeached but likely to be voted out.
03:20 PM on 01/18/2011
This is a very complicated subject that involves a lot of political mistakes that we have made with China. One that really shocked me was our newly elected president Barack Obama traveling around the world with his rhetoric disgracing the U.S. as sinking into a second rate power. How about telling the French that we were arrogant as a nation. Where did this man grow up anyway?? He is alleged to be a scholar. Where did he not learn his history? WE sacrificed so much to save the French and the rest of Europe from Hitler it was truly the most twisted version of all that we sacrificed to save Europeans from their own mess. How about touring the cemateries Mr. President and how about the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe? Arrogance, you say. We just gave too much to be treated with such disdain coming from our president or any other country.
07:10 PM on 01/18/2011
Yes, we did good things then, but those alone don't prevent others from criticize us if we did bad things(like under Bush Jr.) later on. He managed to messed up big time with friends and foes alike around the world.
07:25 PM on 01/18/2011
Where were you the last 10 years? Another planet? Helping to liberate Europe in WWII means we can overthrow democratically elected progressive governments, instigate coups, invade countries, and control natural resources of other countries with impunity? Even worse, you don't even want us to acknowledge the wrongs we have done and apologize because that will be "disgracing the U.S.?"
Not that countries like France, Belgium, U.K., and others are blameless.

What is so ridiculous and hypocritical is a Harvard professor (and former US Assistant Secretary of Defence for International Security Affairs and chairman of the National Intelligence Council) writing a piece calling attention to Chinese hubris.