Obama and Biden Go Back to a Losing Message

After watching Obama and Biden on the Sunday morning shows, it is clear they have the wrong message, one that typically loses American elections. If this is their TV message, McCain and Palin will win the national debates and likely go on to victory.

This is Obama's second big strategic message mistake -- the first was stopping independent groups from spending tens of millions of dollars earlier this summer educating the American public on how John McCain is just another flip-flopping, lying, Washington politician surrounded by lobbyists without the temperament to be president.

Obama's basic message is that John McCain is a good person who has same policy positions as George Bush. Biden's basic message is that Sarah Palin is a good and "smart, smart, smart, smart, smart" and "tough, tough, tough, tough, tough, tough, tough" [I may have miscounted] woman who has the same policy positions is George Bush.

The message itself is flawed on multiple levels. In particular, because it simply isn't true, it gives the GOP a free pass to keep lying over and over again. Second, it is weak and wonkish (yes, I know that is redundant, but Obama apparently doesn't), and the public naturally prefers tough, tough, tough and attacking.

Neither McCain nor Palin are "good people" as most Americans use the term. They are serial liars who have invented phony positive stories about themselves and phony negative ones about Obama. See for instance "In His Big Speech, McCain's 10 Energy Lies Top Palin's 4 Energy Lies" and "Palin Repeats GOP's Big Energy Lie -- Plus Four Other Energy Lies, Too" and "Lies, Damn Lies, and the McCain Campaign."

But a core subtext of the Obama/Biden message is that everything McCain and Palin have been saying is true. Here Obama/Biden are making the two classic mistakes of Democratic campaigns:

1. Thinking the traditional media will act as an honest broker of the truth


2. Thinking that the voters who matter actually pay attention to the traditional media.

Wrong and wrong. What the GOP message machine figured out years ago is that

• The traditional media points out "factual errors" at most once.


• The media can be attacked as biased when it (rarely) does more than that.


• The media hates to call people liars and frowns on politicians who use the word "lie."


• The media in its quest for "balance" treats modest overstatements by one side (ours) as no worse than egregious lies by the other side (theirs).


• Most important, for the key voters, the ones who don't follow politics closely, they don't get most of their information from places like Meet the Press.

Thus, one winning strategy in US national political campaigns, the Rovian approach, can be summarized as "lie, lie, and then lie some more." Lies of course are much more politically effective than the truth because lies can be crafted to fit a compelling narrative. So Sarah Palin -- one of the most successful politicians in the country at using lobbyists to transfer US taxpayer money to Alaskans through earmarks-- can become some sort of maverick opponent of lobbying and earmarks. And John McCain -- one of the strongest and most consistent opponents of clean energy for his entire career, someone who thinks "The truly clean technologies don't work", someone who actually mocks energy efficiency -- can become a champion of clean energy, even in the eyes of relatively informed people (see "No wonder the race is close: Even Apollo Alliance is suckered by McCain's lies and doubletalk").

Being weak and wonkish is an equally losing strategy. Worse, neither Obama or Biden are particularly sharp edged in delivering even their core message at least on TV, especially compared to McCain and Palin. The public backs those who attack, even if they disagree with the substance of the attack. Why? Because they are fundamentally electing somebody to defend them -- and if a politician can't defend himself or herself, how can they possible defend the public? A core theme in US popular culture -- especially TV and the movies --is tough people getting so fed up with the wimpiness of those around them that they take action into their own hands and save the day. That's what the public expects to see in real leaders, even if it is a fantasy.

Now it is true that Obama and Biden are tougher on the stump than they are talking to the media on television, but the debates are going to be in the latter format -- and the debates are where the public will make its final judgment on who is fit to lead the most powerful nation in the world. The weird disconnect is that what energized the Democratic base as much as anything else was Obama's convention speech, where he took the fight to McCain and even questioned his temperament. But the Sunday talk shows suggest Obama's tough message is slip-sliding away.

Right now, it doesn't look to me like anybody who understands how this game war is fought is coaching either Obama or Biden. In fact, the Democratic team doesn't have many good surrogates right now. Ironically, John Kerry of all people is the only one I've seen who constantly stays on the attack.

What exactly was Biden thinking on Meet the Press using the word "tough" seven (!) times to describe Palin and "smart" five (!) times to describe Palin and women like her? I'll deal with the with the right message for Palin in another post, but Biden (and Obama) will have utterly failed unless the public comes to see her accurately -- as someone who's views are well outside of the mainstream, who is a shill for Big Oil and an old style pork-barrel politician in bed with lobbyists.

And here is how Obama whiffs on a softball. George Stephanopoulos asked Obama to reply to McCain's claim:

My tax cuts will create jobs. His tax increase will eliminate them.

Obama replied:

John McCain has been peddling this story about me increasing taxes. When every independent analysts have said my tax cuts provide three times the amount of tax relief to middle-class families then do John McCain's. What he wants to do is essentially to continue the Bush tax cuts to the very wealthiest Americans but he wants to double down with $200 billion in additional tax cuts to corporate America including Exxon Mobil. I said I want to provide tax cuts to 95% of the American people. Because I have a different economic theory than George Bush's and John McCain.

Paging Mike Dukakis. We've found your talking points. Seriously, this is it not a good answer. Any answer with the phrase "economic theory" is the equivalent of hitting the snooze button. This answer immediately sucks Obama into an arcane debate with Stephanopoulos. Fortunately, no voters who matter actually watch the show. But they will be watching the debates.

What is so hard about this?

George Bush has destroyed this economy with his tax cuts for the wealthy. George Bush's tax policies have cost millions of people their homes and shipped millions of jobs overseas. John McCain has the exact same job-destroying tax policies. This is worth repeating: John McCain has the exact same job-destroying tax policies as President Bush. Even worse, he wants to give billions more tax break to his Big Oil contributor. I have the exacat opposite plan of Bush and McCain. I provide tax cuts for the middle class, for 95% of the American people. George, I understand why McCain keeps lying about my middle class tax cuts, but why do you keep repeating it?

If you aren't attacking, you're losing.

Then Obama is given another softball, this time to go after Sarah Palin. His answer goes like:

Governor, Skilled politician, governor, Skilled politician, Skilled politician... McCain chose someone who may be even more aligned with George Bush or Dick Cheney.... Wanted to pick Joe Lieberman... Different policies blah, blah, blah....

That could almost be a campaign ad for the other side.

Why not hit her at least as hard as he does on the campaign trail? She claimed to oppose the Bridge to Nowhere, but in fact she supported it. When Congress killed the bridge to nowhere, she pocketed the money of the Americans tax payers anyway. She isn't a "skilled politician" in a positive sense, which is how any listener would take it. She is an old-fashioned porkbarrel politician, who hired a lobbyist for her town of 7000, to get her tiny town more than $20 million of US taxpayer money.

She is selling a lie, just like McCain. If the Obama campaign can't or won't explain that to the American people -- which would require constantly repeating the message in all venues, advertising, and surrogate appearances, then they stand a good chance of losing.

Comments

[hoodsist]

You are so right...Joseph Room....there is no way if someone was saying what they are saying about Barack Obama I would be easy on them...I would go for their jugular....all hell would break lose until I have victory...­.......McC­ain-Palin never say anything nice bout Obama or Biden...unless it is for pure mockery.....wake up Democrats....our lives are at stake.....don't you want to win....I do........A staunch Democrat.......

[bygollymissmolly]

You, like many other Americans are buying the BS the polls are pitching saying that McCain has surged and Obama is falling. It is simply untrue. The truth is that the polling companies changed the proportion of Democrats vs Republicans in recent polls. They are now polling them evenly even though there are 12% more registered Democrats in this country than there are registered Republicans. So, if you factor in that 12%, Obama is still ahead by a pretty good margin.

Unfortunately we have conservative corporate owned MSM and polling companies who are trying to control the message and trying to throw the election to the Republicans.

All we can do to counter this is to talk to people we know and tell them the truth. I talked to a woman at work the other day who thought Sarah Barracuda was "fabulous". I asked her what she knew about her and all she knew was that she was a real "reformer". When I showed her the facts about Sarah Barracuda, she was appalled. She actually said, I would have voted for her if you hadn't shown me that. My reply to her was "don't take my word for it, do your own homework and educate yourself before you vote".

[dsgeorge]

But you forget, many people who consider themselves democrats vote republican....such as "Reagan democrats" and Union employees in OH, PA, IN, WV , MI who vote against their pocketbooks because "god, guns and gays" are more important to them. I believe Obama can count on the AA vote, youth vote, 50-60% women, hispanics....but then - like always, it comes down to low-info voters in OH, PA, IN, WV, MI who you would think would pull for Mickey Mouse if he was a democrat this year of all years = but, alas, they will screw the rest of the country and vote for this old man and crazy righty becasue they always do.

[armadillious2002]

We may have already lost but there is a bright side. We are almost certainly headed for a National Depression. Fannie and Freddie are just the beginning. When the World bank dumps the US Dollar and goes for the Euro in January this will be the proverbial straw that breaks the cammel's back.

Maybe it would be best if they're in and then they can own it. We're screwed anyway.

[bygollymissmolly]

We are not losing. The corporate owned polling companies are manipulating the data to make it look like McBush is surging. It simply isn't true. Plus, the Democrats have registered over a million new Democrats in the last six months and are still going strong. If all Democrats get out to vote, it's going to be an Obama landslide.

That being said, I would like to see Obama stop being so polite and start nailing the two serial liars. I really am happy to see Obama calling them lies. I hate it when people dance around the word "lie".

[sarobinson4320]

I'm am so tired of all the arm chair quarterbacking. Obama and Biden are being who they are. I thought that was why we were supporting them. Past Democratic candidates have lost because consultants and pundits asked them to act like something they are not (remember Gore and the consultants). Also, the last thing Obama can do is be seen as the "angry black man."
This is a very important election. If Obama loses the country does to. If Americans are too stupid to understand that then they deserve what will happen for the next four years. Just like they deserved everything that has happened during the past eight.

[goldnchyl]

Exactly. Obama and Biden are being who they are. McCain and Palin are not being authentic, but acting the part well. If people are still dumb enough to go for the "bring it on" mentality, in spite of the damage that kind of behavior has done to our country then there's nothing that will get through. Obama, I feel, is correct in trusting in the American people. The polls are always misleading. I've never been asked to participate in any of these polls, nor do I know anyone who knows anyone who has been polled. The problem isn't Obama's message, which has been the only consistent thing during this campaign, but the bias present in the media

[raygunner]

I agree that all the Dems need to make their message simplier.

I realized this after watching this video asking people on the street simple questions about the world and current events.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJuNgBkloFE

Obama and Biden just need to deliver their message so audiences like this will understand. I realized that Republicans know this and that's why their messages are so simple and straightforward. That's why I actually love the new Obama "Whoa" commercial. Simple.

Don't lose this, Obama. We're really pulling for you. Let everyone know if the simplest terms that McCain/Palin will actually be worse than BUSH/Cheney.

[ojim]

Part of the problem is that the Republicans and media with an assist from some of us - Democrats, have thrown Obama off his message. The constant clamoring by pundits and some bloggers asking for him to become more detailed in his policy descriptions has been destructive. No one who cared to find out ever had any doubt that Obama always had extensive policy details - in the his policy documents. He had it just right at the beginning because he understood that "What is lacking is not good ideas", he knew that people wanted to be inspired, not to be read a term paper. People don't ask their pastors about the mechanics of how this "getting to heaven thing is supposed to work." that's why many religions or cults that demonstrate and prove nothing still remain strong. People want to be inspired and they have a deep need to believe. The Republicans have mastered this understanding and they give folks a belief, albeit a terrible one - but it's a belief! Man is a creature of faith, faith in family, science, religion etc. We have helped BO begin to undermine his own strength. LET'S FACE IT OBAMAMANIA WAS A RELIGION AND IT WAS ALRIGHT. It doesn't make Obama a god, just a MESSENGER, but they acted like it was wrong to feel that way, and we became ashamed and consequently we shook the messenger up an he tried to switch his game up. We need to reverse that ASAP.

[paixa3]

The Democratic party candidates behaviour is enough to make one puke.

THEY DESERVE to lose, but the country does not, but will.

[darthmaul]

Your post is spot on. The democrats try and give a nuanced and long winded answer to the questions. It should be kept to two sentences. "The republicans are lying (yes use the word lying)." and leave it at that.

[krocklin]

Serial liars just throw out too many lies. You just can't counter them one by one in soundbites.
Obama stays on message, but he needs to inspire fear too, just like the Republicans.
Fear of more of the Same.

[krocklin]

Exactly right. Obama needs to tighten up his responses to questions like the ones Olbermann asked.
He suggested he ask Palin if she is qualified. He then said what he should have in the first place: her resume isn't the only problem: it's her policies.
In a word, if he doesn't want to go on the attack, at least he should be more concise. Don't just preach to the choir.
These serial liars are just going to keep trumping him if he doesn't get more serious.

[likeicare]

Barack, you're being called out by the bullies -- tell it like it is -- what are you afraid of?

They're LIARS! Just say so -- voters are not as dumb as the Neocons like to think we are, but silence in the face of evil, is akin to acquiesence or agreement with it, so SPEAK UP!

C,mon, man, ther's a time and a place to be cool, and there's a time when you have to step up and do the right thing.

This is that time. Now. Not later -- not a day from now, or a week from now --NOW!

[goldnchyl]

if voters are not so dumb then why do they need Obama to perform to their red meat craving standards in order to vote for him? Anyone who can see what is happening well enough to articulate it should be able to decipher the bs from reality.

[AlanBJ]

Unfortunately, I agree with this...Don't you guys get this sinking feeling at the bottoms of your stomachs when you here this constant "Sarah is smart, John is a good man, John is my friend" statements coming out their mouths?

Obama and Biden. Listen up. Your supporters are out here going the bat for you. Please go to bat for us and call your opponents out for who they are. We really don't care about how great they are because they are not great to us. Stick up for us, not them, with your constant fawning.

Good people don't maliciously lie to people. Good people don't try to smear you. When you continue to say how good they are, you lose credibility because we know these people are not good, and it seems like you are feeding us a pile of doo-doo each time you act as though you are their #1 fan.

Please "man up" against them, for our sakes.

[helloboyd]

Democratic Wuss factor is skyrocketing. It may be too late. Don't they freaking anticipate anything!!??
Are they anticipating responses to the October surprises. The way it looks now it'll be over before October.

[Dianekkdi]

I'm really sick of hearing that mccain is a 'good' man. No, your right, he's not. He's not my friend.
He's going to get members of my family killed. That makes him my friend? Oh, it's just opinions and politics? Really? Well, what about my nephew? What do I tell his kids at his grave? It was just opinion not john mccain and alike politicians who murdered him?

Enough.

Politics are not just opinions. They affect our lives daily.

Liars are not our friends.

Tell Obama / Biden to take the gloves off. No heged bets here. Our country can't afford them. I will judge you by whom you call friend Joe Biden...and if your friend wants to murder me and my country -- we have problems.

Stop the namby pamby crap and win this election.

[JADZIA TURBO]

This is exactly whats going on. But I ask how can we attack and stay on message when Obama is still trying to meet with BillClinton and get him onboard. We spend more time fighting each other than the opponent. Thats where the republicans are far superior, they are united and going after us. We are still trying to get all our people on the same page. If we lose this one we deserve it and after 29 year of being a loyal Dem and working on campaigns I will register as an indy and vote that way. I am fed up with the Dems always snatching defeat out the jaws of victory!