iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Josh Horwitz

GET UPDATES FROM Josh Horwitz
 

The Truth About Gun Sales

Posted: 01/09/12 07:38 AM ET

The media has been awash this holiday season with stories about a "dramatic increase" in gun sales in the United States. CNN, for example, declared, "December holiday shoppers were not just interested in buying the hottest electronics and toys--they also were purchasing record numbers of guns." USA Today claimed, "Along with millions of Kindles, Angry Birds and gift cards, Santa left a record number of guns under Americans' Christmas trees." Reuters gushed about "16.5 million queries from firearms sellers" in 2011. Even "The Last Word" host Lawrence O'Donnell talked of a "100%" increase in gun sales over the holiday season.

The source of these stories? Reporters, as always, were being pitched to by the gun lobby--specifically the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) and the National Rifle Association (NRA). Here's the funny thing, though. The gun lobby doesn't actually provide any gun sales data to the media. The NSSF (the trade association for the gun industry) and the NRA have this data--because gun manufacturers have to understand what their dealers are selling in order to produce the proper amount of product and maximize profits. But the gun lobby has blocked public access to this information for decades. Instead, they offer reporters data on background checks run through the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS).

The problem is that the FBI has made it patently clear that this is not gun sales data ("These statistics represent the number of background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold."). Why is that the case? For the following reasons, among others:

  • Thousands of background checks each year result in denials when it is determined that individuals in question are prohibited under federal and/or state law from purchasing firearms. So the checks are run, but the guns are never actually sold.
  • Background checks are performed under a number of circumstances that do not involve gun sales. For example, when an individual pawns a weapon and later redeems it, federal law mandates that a background check be performed on that individual.
  • Millions of background checks are run each year on individuals applying for permits to carry a concealed handgun, or individuals who already have such permits (to determine if there have been updates in their criminal records that might disqualify them). Some states like Utah and Kentucky are now running their concealed carry databases through the NICS system on a quarterly or monthly basis.
  • Transactions are sometimes stopped at the point of sale because of declined payments (i.e., bad checks, canceled/refused credit cards, etc.).
  • Some states prescribe a waiting period for firearm sales. Sometimes, individuals never return to pick up a gun(s) after that period is concluded.
  • Thousands of checks each year involve the purchase of multiple firearms. This means that background check statistics are understating firearm sales in some cases. But typically this is not a large number. Out of 14,320,489 background checks reported by the FBI in 2010, only 180,609 involved the purchase of multiple firearms.
  • In some states, a concealed handgun permit exempts permit holders from having to undergo additional background checks when they purchase new firearms. Currently, there is no way to track such sales.
  • FBI background check statistics encompass the sale of both new and second-hand firearms. Federally licensed firearms dealers frequently sell used firearms, as do unlicensed private sellers. And some states require background checks to be conducted on the private sales of firearms. How many used firearms are included in the FBI's background check data? It's impossible to tell. But no other industry in America would include used/second-hand merchandise in its reporting of sales for a given year. It would be the equivalent of Sony including used televisions hocked through Craigslist in its sales figures.
  • There are instances in which the NICS database is checked multiple times for a single firearms purchase application. This would happen, for example, when there is confusion about the identity of an individual because his/her name receives multiple hits in the NICS database (e.g., an individual named John Michael Smith initially submits an application without his full middle name and causes a check to be run on a different John M. Smith). NICS also technically consists of three separate databases (the National Crime Information Center, the Interstate Identification Index, and the NICS Index) and if any one of those databases is down at a given time, checks will frequently be repeated to make sure all databases have been queried.

When you screen out certain categories of NICS data that clearly do not represent gun sales (pawn transactions, concealed handgun permit checks, administrative oversight), you come up with a very different set of numbers than what is being reported in the national media. The following is a computation of FBI reporting of background checks representing "Handgun Sales," "Long Gun Sales," "Multiple Sales," and "Other Sales" (which the FBI defines as "frames, receivers and other firearms that are not either handguns or long guns...such as firearms having a pistol grip that expel a shotgun shell, or National Firearms Act firearms"). Note the figures in parentheses on the right. These are rates of (potential) gun sales per capita utilizing annual U.S. population data:

2011: 10,037,110 (3,217 per 100,000)
2010: 8,753,555 (2,835 per 100,000)
2009: 8,927,138 (2,907 per 100,000)
2008: 8,426,245 (2,771 per 100,000)
2007: 7,530,727 (2,499 per 100,000)
2006: 7,361,033 (2,467 per 100,000)
2005: 6,935,952 (2,346 per 100,000)
2004: 6,599,292 (2,253 per 100,000)
2003: 6,333,371 (2,182 per 100,000)
2002: 6,347,492 (2,206 per 100,000)
2001: 7,207,720 (2,528 per 100,000)
2000: 7,067,634 (2,504 per 100,000)
1999: 7,857,932 (2,816 per 100,000)

As you can see, over the past 13 years, the per capita "sales" figure has fluctuated between a high of 3,217 per 100,000 in 2011 and a low of 2,182 per 100,000 in 2003. But there have been no "dramatic" spikes in either direction dating back to the final two years of the Clinton administration.

But let me stress again... Even these revised figures only provide a very crude estimate of gun sales in the United States (for the reasons listed above). At the moment, we do not have enough information to accurately assess the number of guns being sold each year in the United States. By itself, the FBI's background check system cannot provide an accurate sales figure. So while 2011 could very well turn out to be the best year for gun sales dating back to 1998, a great deal more research would have to be done to arrive definitively at that conclusion.

So why do the NSSF and NRA continue to refuse to give reporters access to actual sales data (which they get from every other industry in America)? The answer to that question is obvious. The gun lobby is desperate to perpetuate its image as The Lobby That Cannot Be Crossed by Politicians in the face of a very harsh reality: Declining gun ownership in the United States.

The number of Americans who own firearms has been steadily declining over the past 30 years. According to the General Social Survey (GSS), the most respected source of data on social trends in the U.S., just 20.8% of Americans owned a firearm in 2010. This is down substantially from the 1980 figure of 29%. GSS data also soundly debunks another specious claim that the gun lobby circulates to the media--that gun ownership among women is on the rise. In reality, gun ownership among American women has remained flat over the past three decades, with 10.5% of women reporting owning firearms in 1980 compared to 9.9% in 2010.

With fewer Americans choosing to own firearms, the gun industry understands that it must sell additional firearms to people who are already gun owners. To this end, the NRA has dramatically ratcheted up the promotion of gun confiscation conspiracy theories since the election of Democratic President Barack Obama. What started with the NRA's pledge to spend $15 million to defeat Obama in 2008 and a website called "GunBaNObama" has led to increasingly outlandish and paranoid attacks designed to promote gun sales. As Fox News' Follow the Money segment noted on January 4, "President Obama is the reason" for the upward trend in background checks since 2008, because the NRA has convinced some gun owners that he is "going to go after [their] guns."

The reality, however, is that the guy buying his second assault rifle or third handgun isn't a new gun owner. And sales of used or second-hand guns are not new sales--and no self-respecting industry would treat them as such. By purposely hiding actual data about gun sales in America, the gun lobby is attempting to reinforce its oversize reputation and make the industry look like a more politically potent force than it actually is.

How much longer will the combination of lazy (or sensationalist) reporting, along with the NRA's desire to prop up its gun industry benefactors, lead to widespread misinformation about the state of gun sales in America? We can all appreciate that reporters need stories, and "sexy" material brings ratings, but it's time to correct the record. If Microsoft or Ford tried to send a reputable news outlet information on some tangential metric and pitch it as "sales data"--while simultaneously blocking access to the real figures--they would be laughed at and deemed backwards. It's time to hold the gun industry to the same adult standard.

Or, as the "Industry Insider" columnist in the NRA's own American Rifleman magazine recently put it, "Unlike other industries that can be analyzed, quantified, objectified and measured, the metrics of the gun business are largely unknown. It's amazing how mysterious the industry is when you think about it."

 

Follow Josh Horwitz on Twitter: www.twitter.com/CSGV

The media has been awash this holiday season with stories about a "dramatic increase" in gun sales in the United States. CNN, for example, declared, "December holiday shoppers were not just intereste...
The media has been awash this holiday season with stories about a "dramatic increase" in gun sales in the United States. CNN, for example, declared, "December holiday shoppers were not just intereste...
 
 
  • Comments
  • 1,324
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Highlights
Bloggers
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2 3 4 5  Next ›  Last »  (9 total)
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
SewaneeLeftist
I shall die but that is all I shall do for death
06:51 PM on 02/24/2012
I highly doubt anyone will read this so long after this thread went up, but in a post here, I promised I'd give the source of "gunist," which I like to spell "gunnist." The neologism is from the Chronicle of Higher Ed., and coined by a retired Harvard psychiatrist named Robert Jay Lifton, in his article "An Ideology of Gunism" (2007) 53 (35): B11. Here's how he describes gunism: "Some years ago, the distinguished historian Richard Hofstadter told me that, after a lifetime of studying American culture, what he found most deeply troubling was our country's inability to come to terms with the gun--which in turn strongly affected our domestic and international attitudes. Emotions of extreme attachment to and even sacralization of the gun pervade American society, and commercial interests shamelessly manipulate those emotions to produce wildly self-destructive policies.

Much has been said, with considerable truth, about the role of the frontier in bringing about this psychological condition. I would go further and suggest that American society, in the absence of an encompassing and stable traditional culture, has embraced the gun as a substitute for that absence, and created a vast cultural ideology we can call "gunism.""

Chronicle of Higher Education, 2007, 53, 35, B11-B11
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
diverjay
The Depth of Liberal Hypocrisy is Beyond Fathom.
02:57 PM on 02/20/2012
I was at the gun store a few days ago and it was very busy. I commented on how busy it was and the guy behind the counter and he agreed and replied, "Obama has been gun salesman of the year for the past three years running." Guess this one segment of the economy Obama can actually take credit for.
03:35 PM on 01/17/2012
There are a few simple steps we can take to prevent gun violence.
11:56 AM on 01/16/2012
Get a hobby Josh. You sound unhinged.
08:16 PM on 01/15/2012
Ruger shares soar, while the rest of the market drops, on reports that its sales are up 33% from the fourth quarter the year before.

http://armsandthelaw.com/archives/2012/01/a_wonderful_day.php

But remember, increased sales, manufacturing and NICS checks really mean a decrease in sales.
photo
OdinsEye
Korean-Latino cop and retired military combat vet
09:42 PM on 01/14/2012
Enjoyed watching another installment of Shooting Stars and watching Karl Malone's team once again top Tom Knapp's team and Gerald McRaney's team. One of the announcers also got some one on one shotgun instruction with Kim Rhode.

Which brings up a point: The popularity of firearm related shows. The success of Top Shot has shown a lot of people just how exciting some of the shooting sports can be. Several other shows involving marksmanship have been aired, though Top Shot is probably the most successful. As people learn more and more about the shooting sports it will help drive firearm sales.
06:14 PM on 01/14/2012
Mr. Horwitz, your viewpoint is incredibly naive and supposes that humankind has evolved to the point where its members feel safe enough to no longer need to defend themselves from others. Meanwhile, with our own government's meteoric rise in its arms industry, along with a dysfunctional foreign policy and continual violations of foreign sovereign governments, rendition, torture, and stockpiling ASDs and LRDs for use against its own civilian population, I would imagine that you think that gun control would actually serve to accomplish something.

You would do far better in targeting which social factors play into people feeling unsafe and why buying firearms, bows, arrows, or whatever, would seem to give them a heads up in personal protection. Those social factors point straight to our own legislature, the courts, the White House, that ridiculous excuse we have for a news media, and all of the aforementioned's contribution to a failed economy, the loss of homes, jobs. etc.

Guns are a social barometer. When we no longer need them, or something that serves their purpose, they will become paperweights. Forcefeeding this panty-wetting liberal agenda down the throats of the rest of American citizens may work for clueless and sanctimonious ambulance chasers with a political agenda, but it doesn't work for the rest of the country. This, you must be noticing by now with the ever increasing passage of pro-gun legislation. Must be frustrating to know you jumped on the wrong train.
photo
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Rooster Coburn
Less Gov't + More Responsibility = A Better World
10:14 PM on 01/14/2012
And of course while gun sales soar crime is down again last year. More guns - Less crime. But you already knew that, right?
02:12 AM on 01/15/2012
thats right!
02:10 PM on 01/14/2012
All Josh's questions/accusations/assertions are answered and discredited here: http://www.examiner.com/gun-rights-in-st-louis/csgv-demands-information-from-gun-industry-not-from-holder

Reminds me of the blind men and the elephant parable. All he has to do is open his eyes.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
Duane Kerzic
My micro-bio is empty!
09:54 AM on 01/14/2012
Mr. Horwitz just needs to visit, the BATFE’s website to get the data for the number of firearms made in the U.S.A. and not exported, plus the number of firearms imported. I can assure you that retailers are not stockpiling the guns. The data show increases from 5.1 million in 2005, to 5.7 million in 2006, 6.5 million in 2007, 6.9 million in 2008, and almost 9 million in 2009. Figures for 2010 and 2011 have not been released yet.

It's very likely that the sale of weapons remains proportional to the number of NICS checks performed each year. So based on the above numbers I'm sure that gun sales and ownership are at an all time high, yet for the first time in 45 years murder has fellen off the list of the 15 top causes of death in the USA. More legal guns means less crime, this is a fact that Mr. Horwitz will never admit to. But this fact is born out everywhere the experiment is conducted.
07:31 AM on 01/14/2012
I'm a real estate broker and I know for a fact that a record number of female Realtors are not only buying handguns but getting carry permits for them as well.

Gun industry sales are at record numbers which is a proven fact; someone is buying all those guns and ammo being manufactur­ed.
09:01 PM on 01/13/2012
This is getting unbelievably stupid.

You can look up, by manufacturer, how many guns were manufactured each year.

http://www.atf.gov/statistics/

Courtesy of the ATF. I don't know why Horwitz thinks the NRA has sales figures from private companies, or why he thinks nobody will notice he's (again) outright lying about the availability of these numbers, but it's getting old.
photo
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Rooster Coburn
Less Gov't + More Responsibility = A Better World
10:04 PM on 01/14/2012
I don't think that report includes imports from foreign countries though. Think GLOCK.
photo
OdinsEye
Korean-Latino cop and retired military combat vet
10:26 PM on 01/14/2012
Many of the Glocks sold in the US are made in the US. Glock (USA) reported making 31,395 in 2010. The BATFE should also have the numbers on imports as all imports have to be approved by the BATFE.
09:02 PM on 01/11/2012
The manufacturers and the NRA are definitely hiding something. There is no way Americans are buying this many guns. It is definitely to advance the NRA agenda.

My neighbors are avid gun enthusiasts, but with the harm these guns are doing, they have disavowed the NRA and turned in all their guns to be destroyed.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
10:36 PM on 01/11/2012
"There is no way Americans are buying this many guns. It is definitely to advance the NRA agenda.

My neighbors are avid gun enthusiast­s, but with the harm these guns are doing, they have disavowed the NRA and turned in all their guns to be destroyed."

BWAHAHAHAHAHA

Good one!
06:34 PM on 01/19/2012
name speaks for itself, so easy even a kaveman can fall for it.
photo
thorrsman
Why should I define myself by quoting others?
11:21 PM on 01/11/2012
We must throw the BS flag on this one.
photo
JimInHouston
Arma virumque cano...
11:54 PM on 01/11/2012
Lefties are so cute.
07:37 PM on 01/11/2012
A friend of my sons was killed by two marines home on leave. Does that mean all marines are bad?

No.

The majority of gun owners, just like the majority of members in the USMC are outstanding citizens.

Just look at American Politics in the news. Common sense is not a common trait in America. So therefore, people with no common sense are just as capable of voting as they are of purchasing a gun. It's the American way.
06:12 PM on 01/11/2012
"firearm unit sales in our consumer channel were up 44.4% compared with the adjusted NICS* increase of 10.8% for the same three-month period ending July 31. " S&W

Increase in estimated Ruger Units Sold
from Distributors to Retailers
23% 3rd qrtr
19% through oct '11

So in both instances, the number of firearms (units) being sold are higher than the period NICS checks. But the CSGV still denies there's an increase in firearm sales.
photo
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Dimensio
I just don't know what went wrong!
06:33 PM on 01/11/2012
The Coalition to Stop Gun Violence will not accept claims of increased rates of firearm sales until an organization with no means to access sales information publishes relevant sales information.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
LC Scotty
10:34 AM on 01/12/2012
And this, Dimensio, is why you are my hero.
04:37 PM on 01/11/2012
"But the gun lobby has blocked public access to this information for decades. Instead, they offer reporters data on background checks run through the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS). "

Have they? Have they really?

http://www.nssf.org/research/

They could have the info for less money than the CSGV spent in salaried man hours 'outing' pro-rights bloggers.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
enlightened45
06:59 PM on 01/11/2012
Your link proves nothing, do you have anything more specific?
11:30 PM on 01/11/2012
You really made Dimensio's point for him, didn't you?
photo
wolflover3825
Hungry Like the Wolf.
09:34 AM on 01/12/2012
Even when provided with some proof of the information is out there and public, you deny it.