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When It Comes to Data on Firearm Sales, Gun Lobby Still Shooting Blanks

Posted: 02/ 6/2012 7:20 am

Last month, I posted a blog ("The Truth About Gun Sales") here at Huffington Post that analyzed the gun lobby's favorite pitch to the media. Year after year, the National Rifle Association (NRA) and National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) continue to push stories about "record-setting" sales and reporters -- always looking for a sensational lead -- print/air these claims as gospel without actually fact-checking them.

What makes this so remarkable is that the gun lobby blocks both the public and media from gaining access to actual data on gun sales. Instead of sales data, the NRA and NSSF offer reporters data on background checks conducted through the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS). For a multitude of reasons that I chronicled in my earlier blog, this data does not represent gun sales. As the FBI made clear to Reuters on Saturday, "An increase in the number of NICS transactions, for a given time period, should not be used to indicate an increase in the number of firearms sold."

Angered over being exposed as peddlers of bogus data, the NRA's Institute for Legislative Action (NRA-ILA) responded to my blog in a January 13th alert on their website ("Gun Control Activists Fire Squib Loads"). With their NICS ruse foiled, they are now offering yet another separate and distinct body of information as "hard data" on gun sales.

For starters, the NRA-ILA seems to now fully acknowledge that NICS checks are not gun sales. "As Horwitz points out, not all firearm-related NICS checks are for firearm acquisitions, and the number of checks does not reflect the number of firearms acquired in conjunction with the checks," they write. "Among other things, he also points out that some NICS checks are for acquisitions of second-hand firearms." And yet they can't quite let go of their bogus data, saying that increases in the number of NICS checks from 2007 to 2011 "almost guarantee[s] that sales of new firearms have been increasing during that time frame."

Almost guarantees? Or perhaps it's merely an "exact estimate"? Whatever the case, the NRA was ready to introduce its latest iteration of "hard data" on gun sales:

There's a much better indicator of new gun sales that Horwitz ignored: U.S. firearms manufacturers' production data and firearm importation statistics, both reported by the BAFTE [Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives]. Horwitz accuses NRA and the National Shooting Sports Foundation of not providing reporters hard data, but reporters can get the BAFTE's data the same way the NRA and the NSSF do -- by visiting the BAFTE's website.

Allow me to interject here for just a moment. The NRA and the NSSF are claiming they wait two years for (embargoed ATF) data on firearms manufacturing and imports? The NSSF is the trade association for the gun industry! Their job is to tell American consumers and investors what's going on in their industry, what's hot and what's not, what's selling and what's sitting in inventory. They're either lying or grossly incompetent. This type of information is routinely reported by other industries up to the current month, as seen in this example. But I digress; let me get back to the NRA-ILA's latest "hard data" on gun sales:

The BATFE's data show that the number of firearms made in the U.S.A. and not exported, plus the number of firearms imported, increased from 5.1 million in 2005, to 5.7 million in 2006, 6.5 million in 2007, 6.9 million in 2008, and almost 9 million in 2009. Figures for 2010 and 2011 have not been released, but based on the trend in NICS checks, it's likely that they will follow a similar pattern.

But are firearms manufactured in the U.S. and not exported, plus imported firearms, really "a much better indicator" of gun sales? First of all, we don't have any data at all for 2010 and 2011, so (once again) we can't have an adult conversation about these figures. More importantly, firearms are some of the most durable products you will find, with extremely long life spans. How do we know these products aren't simply sitting on the shelves?

That theory is certainly plausible because the ATF data shows a multi-year trend of rising firearm imports. Are these foreign imports a threat to domestic firearm manufacturers? If so, U.S. manufacturers could be increasing production to try to compete. Let's remember that the domestic automobile industry overproduced itself right into bankruptcy.

If that's not enough, the NSSF added even more "evidence" of increased gun sales in a recent press release: "Another indicator pointing to robust gun sales is the federal excise taxes collected on the sale of new firearms and ammunition, which have risen 48.3 percent over the last five years." Yes, the excise tax receipts have gone up, but since this includes ammunition and a long list of bow-hunting products it offers little insight into how many firearms are being moved off retailers' shelves. Additionally, the federal excise tax is based on the value of the product and is not a set tax per unit. Increased tax collections could reflect many things, including the rise in the price of raw commodities that make firearms more expensive. Purchasers might also be passing on less expensive items in favor of more expensive ones. Finally, it certainly reflects the high cost of ammunition due to wartime shortages as well as general inflation. In conclusion, aggregate excise tax data does not tell us anything about firearm sales.

The NSSF has even stooped so far as to offer reporters social media searches as evidence of what brands of firearms sold the best during the 2011 holiday season. Facebook and Twitter hits? This is literally laughable.

Let's be perfectly clear here. Virtually every other industry in America offers the media actual data on sales. Click here to see industry data on pharmaceuticals, motorcycles, and ever-popular Mac products, for example. So why do the NRA and NSSF continue to block access to this information?

Because the industry has something ugly to hide.... If the NSSF did make sales figures public, it would then be possible to compare gun sales data to aggregate data on crime gun traces and identify with specificity the volume of firearms being diverted to criminals and traffickers in the illegal market. Researchers could also divine which firearm manufacturers are failing to use effective safeguards to stop the illegal diversion of their products.

It's no secret that the gun industry knows that their distributors and retailers supply thousands of guns each year to criminals. Bob Ricker, the former executive director of the American Shooting Sports Council (then the leading gun industry trade association), made that patently clear when he became a whistleblower in 2003. Ricker participated in a series of high-level meetings with NRA and gun industry executives from 1992 to 1997 in which it was acknowledged that "the diversion of firearms from legal channels of commerce to the black market" takes place "principally at the distributor/dealer level." Ricker proposed strict standards and guidelines to help stem the flow of guns to criminals. But his proposal was rejected by industry attorneys, who concluded that, "You can't change operating procedures, because if you do, then you're going to be admitting sort of liability."

And is it simply a coincidence that the same year Ricker came forward with these details, the NRA pushed for amendments to the ATF appropriation bill in Congress that prohibited lawmakers, the media, the public, and researchers from gaining access to crime gun trace data? The pattern couldn't be clearer.

The smoke and mirrors game the gun lobby plays with bogus "sales data" allows them to promote the infamous "More Guns, Less Crime" mantra of now-discredited "researcher" (and current Fox News commentator) John Lott while cloaking a far darker truth. Namely, that -- faced with a stagnant customer base that has declined precipitously over the past 35 years -- the gun industry has purposely and continuously manufactured firearms for one of its most important market segments: traffickers and prohibited purchasers (i.e., children, criminals, the dangerously mentally ill, domestic abusers, etc.). And all in the name of profit.

What's remarkable is that anyone in the media is still willing to play their game with them.

 

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11:20 PM on 02/18/2012
Josh's lies and mis-representations analyzed here: http://www.freelibertywriters.com/bruce-krafft/2012/2/16/anti-gunners-rejecting-reality.html
10:04 AM on 02/09/2012
This link from another HP/Reuters story supports my earlier post that FBI actually keeps track of NICS statistics from gun dealers. They could provide fairly accurate data on annual firearms sales, if they wanted to.

"The FBI said it fielded nearly 16.5 million queries from firearms sellers last year, checking that customers buying guns did not have criminal records or other red flags that made them ineligible to purchase weapons.

That was up 15 percent from 2010, when the FBI performed 14.4 million screenings using its so-called National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), and the highest number of annual screenings performed since 1998, when the checks went into effect.

The FBI cautioned that each background check did not necessarily represent an individual firearm sale, in part because some would-be buyers fail to pass the screening.

But FBI spokesman Stephen Fischer said the background checks are correlated with weapon purchases. So the uptick in screenings last year suggests that an increase in gun sales the agency has been tracking for several years was continuing."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/04/gun-purchases-2011_n_1185282.html
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BHirsh
03:11 PM on 02/08/2012
When Horowitz or Henigan open their mouths, it's time to yawn and go have a beer.
05:48 AM on 02/08/2012
True, NICS does not represent all of the actual gun sales. Since I have a CPL, I can buy guns without going through the NICS check.
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OCerInTN
Hoplophobics worst nightmare.
01:12 AM on 02/10/2012
If bills currently in the Tennessee legislature pass, we will be able to do the same thing with our HCP.
04:22 AM on 02/10/2012
Good luck in TN. It sure is great. Just fill out the forms, pay and walk out with your gun. No waiting on a telephone call.
02:14 PM on 02/08/2012
"Coaldale's mayor, Richard Corkery, is behind bars for violating the terms of his bail conditions on charges of downloading images of child pornography, Carbon County Assistant District Attorney Joseph Matika said Monday."

I guess we can understand him being anti-gun.
01:00 AM on 02/08/2012
The mayors of Mayors Against Illegal Guns commit a lot of crime.

http://www.nraila.org/news-issues/fact-sheets/2012/criminal-behavior-by-members-of-maig.aspx
12:48 AM on 02/08/2012
Mayors Against Illegal Guns commit a lot of crime. They probably couldn't pass the background check to buy firearms.

Google the following
mayors against illegal guns nra-ila
12:08 AM on 02/08/2012
Mayors Against Illegal Guns commit a lot of crime. They probably couldn't pass the background check to buy firearms.

http://www.nraila.org/news-issues/fact-sheets/2012/criminal-behavior-by-members-of-maig.aspx
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LouGots
01:20 PM on 02/07/2012
The Grabber's arguments are so far-fetched that he gives further support to the hypothesis that he is actually a gun lobby plant, a kind of sleeper agent who writes silly articles to make his side look ridiculous and to keep our side on its toes.

We in the gun culture know what is going on out there. I know that I spent all afternoon yesterday running new member orientations at my club. I know that our junior programs are booming, that are ranges are occupied to a greater extent than they have been in years. I know exactly what our purchases of clay pigeons amount to, the highest numbers ever, and I see no end in sight to this golden age of the Right to Keep and Bear Arms.

It's over, grabbers. We won, you lost. You can spin the numbers any way you like. but why don't you ask your grabber politician buddies how the gun-culture war went. You'll have to listen closely, though, because the one who are left are very, very quiet..
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OCerInTN
Hoplophobics worst nightmare.
01:14 AM on 02/10/2012
In the last two years, there have been more gun ranges in my area built than in the previous 20.
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Hunter3203
Beer is proof God loves us and wants us to b happy
11:45 AM on 02/07/2012
Exactly what was the point of this article? I understand the author is part of the gun control lobby, but what does he or they gain by the level of gun sales?

The US gun industry has made a decision not to make their production numbers a matter of public record. So what? Despite what the author contends, the number of background checks has a direct correlation to gun sales. Sure some of those sales are of used guns. Again, so what? A trend where background checks increases year over year for several years is not an anomoly. It means the public is buying guns in increasing numbers. Gun owners may be a minority in the US but they are a large minority and they vote. That's where the power of the NRA comes from. Not unlike AARP. When either of those lobbying groups speaks, legislators listen if for no other reason than self preservation.
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spriddler
04:44 PM on 02/07/2012
He wants to show the difference between guns manufactured and new gun sales as proof that gun manufacturers are somehow actively feeding the black market or some such nonsense. His whole goal is to hold gun manufacturers legally responsible for the criminal misuse of their products.
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11:21 AM on 02/08/2012
I have been trying to understand the dissonance here. It seems as he wants a retailer/end seller accounting as to number and type of firearm sold. At present this is prohibited (with exceptions for legitimate law enforcement purposes) so as to protect purchasers both individually and collectively as well as sellers. He might be trying to do a sneak attack on the Tiahrt Amendment. He should just say so, rather than engage in this odd exercise.
10:33 AM on 02/07/2012
The FBI tracks the purpose of every NICS check, the link is to an FBI report of Total NICS Firearm Background Checks 1998-2112. They are organized by "purpose codes": Permit, Handgun, Long Gun, Other, Multiple, Admin, Pre-Pawn, Redemption, Returned, Rentals. The FBI knows why each check is being run, they also know whether or not it was approved. It should be a simple matter to furnish an annual statistical report of approved NICS checks by "purpose code" that would serve as a ballpark estimate of sales.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/020212ptd_state_totals_by_purpose_codes-1.pdf.pdf

They probably won't know if the sale completed or not but surely that would be an extreme minority of sales where the customer went to the trouble and didn't have the money to pay for it.
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MrTaban9
09:29 AM on 02/07/2012
THIS STORY IS FROM TODAYS NEWS ON THE INTERNET

Four men were shot -- one of them fatally -- during a poker game in Houston, police said.

The four men were playing poker at a home in the Northington section of Houston at about 12:45 a.m. Sunday when a fight erupted, the Harris County Sheriff's Office said in a news release.

The suspect, Manuel Morales, 41, retrieved a handgun from his vehicle and shot the three men, police said.

Another man, Angel Vazquez, 48, then retrieved a handgun and returned fire at Morales, according to police. He later died at an area hospital.

Two other men -- identified by police as Jose Vazquez, 58, and Alberto Vazquez, 54 -- were also shot. Their conditions were not available.

All four men were transported to local hospital

Yeah it's GREAT TO OWN A GUN so when you lose your money to your friends you can go get ticked off and just even the game by popping them, that'll show em who's boss.
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JimInHouston
Arma virumque cano...
12:54 PM on 02/07/2012
And what on earth makes you think that these folks were lawful citizens? You DO know that over 75% of such violence is BY criminals AGAINST criminals, right?
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Pete Geller
I came, I saw, I wtf?
04:04 PM on 02/07/2012
I agree that is great to own a gun. Don't think to much of the rest of your supposition though. I've never shot a friend not even after losing all my money to them after playing cards. Never even had to fight, yell or anything else in a card game so I'm not sure what your point you're trying to convey. By all means though you're free to not own a gun if you want, you don't even have to play cards or have friends.
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JerseyCity
I Like Pancakes......yum yum
09:03 AM on 02/07/2012
The NRA is the reason my coffee was cold this morning!!
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Dennis Santiago
Asymmetric Provocateur
04:15 PM on 02/07/2012
Different reason but my coffee went cold too this morning. A few seconds in a microwave fixed it. Improvise, adapt, overcome.
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Berettasskeeter
For what we are about to receive, may we be truly
08:03 AM on 02/08/2012
And my feet itch. I'm sure that is the NRA's fault, if not Bush's!
Semper fi
08:16 AM on 02/07/2012
let the left think what they want, the truth is you only fill out that form to purchase a firearm and since most used firearms sales are private and do not require a background check it is obvious to all but the most ignorant of people what has taken place. Let us not forget that multiple weapons can be bought on one form so in truth firearms sales are skyrocketing.

with our attorney general eric holder arming the drug cartels, the Obama administration suing states for enforcing our own laws, the people are taking it upon themselves to provide protection for their families and friends
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Michael Steaphens
It's all about liberty.
02:04 AM on 02/07/2012
"As the FBI made clear to Reuters on Saturday, "An increase in the number of NICS transactions, for a given time period, should not be used to indicate an increase in the number of firearms sold."
What,is the background checks also used for buying the cleaning kits as well?What a dope(the FBI individual who said this).
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wolflover3825
Hungry Like the Wolf.
04:22 PM on 02/07/2012
Background checks are also done for CCW permit applications. But unless there is a tremendous increase in CCW permit applications, I would say that the sales have increased.
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Old Jarhead
F-4. The triumph of thrust over aerodynamics
06:08 PM on 02/07/2012
I am not sure, but could states that require licensing to get permission to PURCHASE also give the FBI a "permit" hit? Then a check when actually buying the firearm? But yes, sales have increased, dramatically.
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Michael Steaphens
It's all about liberty.
01:29 AM on 02/08/2012
Thanks for that good point,wolflover.Looks like people like you need to be writing the stories on guns instead of this Horwitz character.
12:37 PM on 02/08/2012
Well, some time back I went into a gun store to buy a handgun that the store had advertised as being on sale. While there I saw something else I liked. The clerk pointed out that one background check would suffice for buying both guns, so I bought both. So it's true. The number of NICS background checks doesn't correlate exactly with number of guns sold.