More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Joshua Gleis

Joshua Gleis

GET UPDATES FROM Joshua Gleis

The Syrian Anomaly

Posted: 04/18/11 09:39 PM ET

Across the Middle East today the "Arab Spring" appears to be in full bloom. Preoccupied with the disintegration of the formerly pro-American government in Yemen, the threat to its naval base in Bahrain, growing difficulties in Iraq, disorder in Egypt and Jordan, and pressure from Great Britain and France to step up military operations in Libya, the Obama Administration has placed Syria on the backburner. It is questionable at this point whether even a major bloodbath by the Assad government would spur any significant western involvement. Only in Syria, where a growing number of citizens are rising up against the Assad regime, has the United States and the rest of the western world failed to develop or convey any type of policy whatsoever.

Considering the strategic importance of Syria to western interests in the region, this should come as somewhat of a surprise. Yet aside from a few statements from the State Department and various foreign ministries, little else is being said or done. Once again we find US policy lacking in its response to an uprising in the Middle East. There are a number of reasons why this is the case.

The "CNN effect" theory is a primary reason for the lack of attention being given to the activities in Syria. In essence, the theory contends that extensive media coverage of a given conflict -- or lack thereof -- can result in radical changes in a state's foreign policy, including military interventions and withdrawals. We recently witnessed this effect in Egypt, as images of young Egyptians in Tahrir Square led citizens and governments the world over to express their support for those rebelling. We saw the CNN effect once again in Libya, where media coverage ultimately led to NATO intervention in that country.

Yet as one of the most authoritarian states in the world, Syria has managed to keep the press at bay, despite the growing conflict and rising casualties. Al Jazeera, the most influential media channel in the Arab world, is based and supported by Qatar -- an ally of the Assad regime. Consequently, al Jazeera's coverage of Syrian activities has been scant in comparison to other revolts in the region.

The realities on the ground are another reason for the lack of attention being paid to Syria. Just as the other conflicts across the Arab world are taking up the media's airtime, so too are they competing for the attention of western governments. The Iranians are making a major effort to protect their interests by supporting their friends. What this means is that in Bahrain, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are helping the Shiite populations rise up against their rulers. What this means in the case of Syria, is that Iran is working with the Allawite rulers to quell any rebellions being led by the Sunni majority in the country. Wary of losing a critical friend in the Arab world, Iran is using its deep political and military ties to quietly support the Assad regime in Syria.

Yet even without these other very real concerns in the region, the lack of western involvement in Syrian affairs -- be it diplomatic or military -- is also due to the fact that the alternatives to an Assad regime are not exactly inspiring. Syrian opposition at the moment is relatively disorganized, but the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood is clearly the most powerful opposition player, and it has been growing in strength in recent years. The country's authoritarian leader, Bashar al-Assad, is propped up by his fellow Allawites, who are a minority in that Sunni-dominated land. In order to maintain control, the Allawites control every major military and political post in the country. This religious Allawite minority that is an offshoot of Shiism knows that if Assad falls, their days of privilege are numbered. As a result, they are more unified and willing to shed blood than was the Egyptian military.

As internal strife continues to spread across Syria, the regime may seek further assistance from Iran. It may also seek greater conflict with Israel as a way to distract attention from domestic concerns. The United States is once again poised to play catch up to events in the Middle East, and Syria is hardly a place where it can afford to do so. Whatever policy it chooses, it needs to develop one soon. The need to be proactive and outspoken about the troubles in Syria can spell the difference between acting ahead of the curve, and once again being caught off-guard. While the alternative to an Assad regime is unknown, one thing is for certain: its downfall would be a major defeat for Iran, and an important victory for the west. The United States must act fast to ensure it molds its own real policy, before it ends up having to respond to others yet again.

 

Follow Joshua Gleis on Twitter: www.twitter.com/joshua_gleis

Across the Middle East today the "Arab Spring" appears to be in full bloom. Preoccupied with the disintegration of the formerly pro-American government in Yemen, the threat to its naval base in Bahrai...
Across the Middle East today the "Arab Spring" appears to be in full bloom. Preoccupied with the disintegration of the formerly pro-American government in Yemen, the threat to its naval base in Bahrai...
 
 
  • Comments
  • 18
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
03:57 PM on 04/19/2011
This article fails to mention Palestinians.

"For decades, Washington has relied on friendly Arab governments to manage the Arab-Israeli conflict without taking Arab public opinion into consideration. But now, with popular uprisings sweeping through the region, U.S. policymakers are looking at other ways Washington can maintain its influence. Policy makers and regional experts say one way Washington can do that is by renewing its efforts to promote peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

As a wave of uprisings sweeps through much of the Arab world, one aspect of the region has not changed at all - the deadlock in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations."

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Arab-Uprisings-Could-Affect-US-Strategy-Toward-Mideast-Talks-120134094.html
01:17 PM on 04/20/2011
"This article fails to mention Palestinia­ns." Yeah, you wouldn't want an entire article to go by without mentioning the Palestinians. Who knows, something might actually get accomplished.

The Syrian government, one of the most brutal of the 22 brutal Arab dictatorships has declared open war on its own people, I think that is an important enough to warrant its own article. Sorry if you Palestinian obsessed types feel that you have to write fan letters expressing love to your Palestinian divas, but there are other things going on in the world. One of the best tactics which the Arab dictators have successfully employed has been to scream "Zionist" any time they were called to account by their population. This has lost its effectiveness on the vast majority of the Arab population, but seems to retain its stranglehold on you.

The 300 million oppressed Arabs of the middle east are busy trying to obtain some measure of freedom without getting massacred by their rulers, try to maintain a little perspective here. Unless of course you are a supporter of the Assads and their peers.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
02:30 PM on 04/20/2011
You are correct, how dare I bring up the most oppressed group in the Arab world, what do Palestinians have to do with the following statements?

"Across the Middle East today the "Arab Spring" appears to be in full bloom. "

"Considering the strategic importance of Syria to western interests in the region, this should come as somewhat of a surprise. Yet aside from a few statements from the State Department and various foreign ministries, little else is being said or done. Once again we find US policy lacking in its response to an uprising in the Middle East. There are a number of reasons why this is the case."

"Just as the other conflicts across the Arab world are taking up the media's airtime, so too are they competing for the attention of western governments."

"The United States must act fast to ensure it molds its own real policy, before it ends up having to respond to others yet again. "

Clearly, even though the VOA article clearly articulates why Palestine is arguably the most important aspect of the Arab Revolutions, you are far grater in your understanding of the Arab world.
photo
adamben
yes i said yes i will yes
01:23 PM on 04/20/2011
maybe because the article is about syria; it is even in the title. assad oppresses his people, not out of a zionist conspiracy, but a baath/shiite-alawite/assad party conspiracy.
01:33 PM on 04/19/2011
The US has blundered by not pushing Israel to accept Syria's offer of peace. What more obvious way forward has there been, these past several years?
photo
adamben
yes i said yes i will yes
01:24 PM on 04/20/2011
israel has made a peace offer, and syria rejected it. 'nuff said.
05:44 PM on 04/20/2011
adamben - - Do you mean Israel's suggestion it should keep the entire shoreline of the Sea of Galilee and the rights to all the water of rivrs flowing into the sea?
This comment has been removed due to violations of our [Guidelines]
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
11:29 AM on 04/19/2011
"What this means is that in Bahrain, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are helping the Shiite populations rise up against their rulers."

Bahrain engages in religious persecution of the MAJORITYShia, Saudi Arabia invades Bahrain, Iran gets blamed.

Something is wrong with this picture.
11:24 PM on 04/19/2011
And yet in Syria the Allawis are the MINORITY and the Sunni are the MAJORITY and yet the Iranians are aiding the Allawis. Something is wrong with this picture too.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
09:27 AM on 04/20/2011
There is no comparison of the treatment of Sunni by Shia, as the treatment of Shia by Sunni, Shia are persecuted everywhere.

"Apartheid

Saudi Arabia is often accused of practicing apartheid against its Shia citizens.[15] Mohammad Taqi writes that

The Saudi regime is also acutely aware that, in the final analysis, the Shiite grievances are not merely doctrinal issues but stem from socioeconomic deprivation, as a result of religious repression and political marginalization bordering on apartheid.[16]

Bahrain

Shia constitute the majority of the population of Bahrain.

Apartheid

Main article: Apartheid in Bahrain
New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof and other commentators have accused the treatment of the Shia majority by the Sunni government of Bahrain of similarity to apartheid South Africa.[17][18][19]

Irshad Manji condemned as "apartheid" countries in which the "Sunni Muslim minorities control the Shia majorities."[20] According to Shibil Siddiqi of the Centre for the Study of Global Power and Politics at Trent University, "Bahrain is virtually an apartheid state."[21]

Ameen Izzadeen writing in the Daily Mirror asserts that
after the dismantling of the apartheid regime in South Africa, Bahrain remained the only country where a minority dictated terms to a majority. More than 70 percent of the Bahrainis are Shiite Muslims, but they have little or no say in the government.[22]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Shia_Muslims