Everyone will be watching the Biden-Palin vice presidential debate. This is an eagerly awaited event, with predictions that Americans will tune in high numbers to see whether Palin can handle the tough questions and if Biden puts his foot in his mouth, once again.
Democrats need to be very careful. When Senator McCain introduced Governor Palin as his running mate, Republicans completely knocked Democrats off their message. The Democratic Party had just come off a very strong convention and a historic speech by Senator Barack Obama. Yet the introduction of Palin created a media frenzy around her, distracting reporters from the main contest, and giving Republicans a chance to regroup and to rebound in the polls.
Palin served two functions for the Republican Party. The first was to mobilize the conservative base. Republicans sensed she could generate the kind of enthusiasm that conservatives had not shown towards McCain.
The second was to attract the kind of media attention that only Obama had enjoyed until August. Before Palin, McCain had terrible trouble combating the media attention that his Democratic opponent received. The Palin strategy worked; for two weeks after the convention, Obama had to fight for media time. While Democrats have clearly benefited more recently, when Palin has stumbled in front of the camera, there is also a cost when Obama has less time to explain his ideas, directly, to the public.
This time, Democrats should not fall for the bait. The Obama campaign is once again in a strong position as Republicans struggle to deal with the economy. There is considerable unease among moderates with McCain's erratic performance during the bailout debate. The weakness of President Bush and the obstructionism of House Republicans with the financial legislation have opened up an opportunity for Democrats to take the ball and run down the field for a touchdown.
Tonight's debate, in certain respects, comes at perfect time for Republicans. Whatever happens, Americans will be watching Palin not Obama.
Democrats should stay focused on the themes from this week, rather than encourage reporters to spend the next week talking about the gaffes or intelligence of Palin. In the end, this is a contest between McCain and Obama, and about Bush's record over the last eight years. When Republicans shift to other issues, they do better. When forced to confront the main issues, they have struggled.Julian E. Zelizer is a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School. He is currently editing a book about the Bush presidency that will be published by Princeton University Press and completing a book on the history of national security politics since World War II that will be published by Basic Books.