There is chatter on the liberal blogosphere and among political analysts that Americans are moving left after three decades of conservatism. After all, presidential candidates -- including Republicans -- are talking about health care reform. Concerns about poverty and those less well off have crept back into the Democratic agenda. The failures in Iraq have caused most voters to reevaluate the hawkish agenda of the right.
But is a shift really taking place? Are we in a period like the 1970s, when a conservative revolution swept through American politics and changed the terms of public debate? The answer is "maybe."
The experience of conservatives in the 1970s suggests that the path to electoral power is difficult even at the most opportune time. In the 1970s, conservatives were exceptionally well organized and seized the tentpole issues that could rally voters to their side. In the 1980 president election, Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter. He brought the conservative movement into the White House after making inroads in the South as well as with northeastern and Midwestern blue-collar voters, formerly loyal Democrats.
Today, the opportunity for a liberal revival certainly exists. Public support for militarism -- a staple of the conservative movement -- has diminished since 2003. The war in Iraq weakened enthusiasm for aggressive U.S. military intervention overseas. Polls show that Americans are not supportive of the most extensive ground war undertaken since Vietnam. Few people are calling for a return to the draft, and the widespread sacrifice it entails. The war has also revealed the limitations of our military capacity. As a result, the possibility for politicians to promote a foreign policy agenda that revolves around diplomacy, economic measures, and non-military solutions have improved.
Nor have conservatives been able to eliminate the federal government. Domestic programs have proven to be popular despite all the talk about why Washington doesn't work. Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush each attempted to take on Social Security, and both men failed. Instead, Bush's biggest contribution to social insurance was to expand Medicare through the prescription drug program in 2003. Conservatives have turned to government, rather than away from government, to achieve their objectives.
As for social norms, conservatives have not overturned the revolution of the 1960s. Abortion remains legal. While affirmative action is under fire, the basic notion of equal rights for women and African Americans remains strong within the electorate. Moreover, popular culture is filled with images of sexuality and violence despite the best efforts of the Moral Majority. Desperate Housewives has become a pop culture phenomenon, its combination of sexuality and campy self-parody revealing deep uncertainties about gender roles. Americans in the red part of the country seem as enthralled with these seductive entertainers as those in the blue states.
Yet opportunity is one thing, success is another.
One key reason conservatives succeeded in the 1970 was organizational skills. When liberals faced a crisis over Vietnam and the social policy debates of the 1960s, conservatives took advantage of that moment by building an organizational infrastructure that included political action committees, volunteer operations, radio talk shows, think tanks, and a direct mail network.
In recent years, liberals have attempted to strengthen themselves in similar fashion. Some of efforts, like creating a vibrant presence on the Internet and improving lobbying tactics on Capitol Hill, have been successful. Others, including the campaign to improve the standing of liberals in the world of think tanks, television, and the radio, have fallen flat.
Conservative activists also succeeded because they focused on specific issues that could bring together different factions unhappy with the Democratic Party. Politicians like Reagan realized that themes like anti-communism and tax cuts could temporarily mask the deep disagreements that existed among conservatives and create a durable coalition.
In the past, liberals have found these kinds of issues as well. As the historian Meg Jacobs wrote, New Deal liberals built a left-center alliance by using the issue of consumer power to unite middle and working-class Democrats. But liberals don't currently have those kinds of issues. The closest is the opposition to the war in Iraq. But, an issue based on opposition to an existing policy is not the most effective for building a broad-based movement that can last.
Today the time looks right for liberalism, but that is no guarantee for success. The 1970s show that mobilization and issue selection are as important as good opportunities. While liberals have strengthened their political infrastructure, their movement culture is still not as vibrant as what conservatism built from the grass roots to Washington. Nor have liberals found the issues that can bridge those on the left and at the center of the Democratic Party.
But there is a long presidential race ahead. The Democrats have time to address this. We don't know if this is a period akin to the 1970s. History shows that activists and political leaders need to make things happen. Whether liberals will recreate the success of the right will be one big question shaping American politics in the coming years.
Julian E. Zelizer is Professor of History and Public Affairs at Princeton University. He is writing a history of the politics of national security which will be published by Yale University Press. Next year Harvard University Press will publish a book that he co-edited, "Rightward Bound: Making America Conservative in the 1970s." He is also the author of "On Capitol Hill" and the editor of "The American Congress."
On the stats page for this site (http://www.dehp.net/candidate/stats.php) they show which issues people feel most strongly about. The results are clear: Opposition to Iraq War, stopping the degradation of civil liberties and our justice system (closing Guatanamo, stopping wiretapping, outlawing torture), and universal health care. These are the issues that will unite and invigorate liberals in the comming election.
Let's not forget the issue of race.
According to Kevin Phillip's "The emerging Republican majority" that was the issue that drove many white high-school educated males (a key demographic) into the Republican column.
This is especially true in the South, where the Democratic party used to be the instrument of white supremacy - until LBJ signed centerpieces of the civil rights legislation, and "handed the South to the Republicans".
Anyone remember Republican talking points from the 80s like "Welfare Queen" or "Willie Horton"?
The Republican platform since 1968 has been: Racism, Rifles, Religion.
(Tax-cuts and anti-communism would fall under the header of Religion in my book, because it's a very special and reactionary brand of religion conservatives embrace, be they Christians, Jews, or other)
He may not know it, but he's a delusional racist:
"The Democratic Party wants to appeal to anyone but whites."
How in the world do you arrive at such analysis, given the overwhelmingly white polity, policies, and politics of the US?
Perhaps because Limbaugh et al told you so?
Is your name a klan reference? If not, I apologize deeply and sincerely.
You sound like one of those who actually believes that prayer was taken from public schools.
IT WASN'T.
Look at this list and explain to me how the Democratic party has “gone away from family”.
Civil rights
Disability
Farm safety laws
FMLA
Interstate highways
Medicaid
Medicare
OSHA
Rural electrification
Rural telephone service
Social security
Unemployment insurance
Union legitimization
Veterans benefits
Welfare
WIC
Workplace safety
ALL created by DEMOCRATS
ALL opposed by REPUBLICANS
Please respond, if you’re able.
I’m genuinely interested in your views.
Thank you.
He's the only one who as shown leadership even when it was unpopular to be against this horrible war. His health care plan is the only real universal plan without insuracne companies.
The middle class as it moves to lower class status will become more protective of its limited wealth and more racist towards others. Now middle class get out there and vote for the repubs so they can hasten your demise. And make sure you vote for the politician with family values (i.e. mention Jesus a lot) like bush jr that way we can have family values and kill others in foreign countries under the banner of 9/11.
And the neat part we can even kill them, (i.e. tell dumb Americans they are terrorists), set up a puppet government and gain control of all that oil. Two birds with one stone. Oh what else is neat we can build a pipeline to Israel and ship a lot of that oil to the Jews. They get a free fly zone to Iran and oil. again two birds with one stone.
It matters not if these people in other countries actually had anything to do with 9/11 as long as they are Muslim. Oh and don’t forget to fall for slogans such as if we fight them over there we will not have to fight them over here.
Gravel was right we American are getting fatter and dumber.
What we need now is to overcome sectarian tendencies within the anti-war movement and move toward a united front, DELINKING MOVEON AND THE CP FROM ITS SUICIDAL EFFORTS TO MOVE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO THE LEFT. Its like the disillusionment with the 'get clean for gene ' campaign all over again. Just wait until the new LBJ gets elected and the war does not end. Then you will see an upsurge from the left. We can only hope.
I do agree!
I think Marx was a BOOB. His over reactions to capitalism abuses was to foster into existence and incentive empty MONSTER of a State, human sprit crushing, motivation sapping, Mega Bureaucracy.
I still prefer self-reliance and free enterprise, WITH effective and caring social responsibilities, collective bargaining. Common defense, education, medical, disability, healthcare, civic renewal, infrastructure, so on.
I just think the majority of tax money would be better spent where it is paid,,,,, locally.
See above exceptions.
Please to NOT confuse what we are seeing today with Free enterprise. More Like; “Corporate Fascism.” I believe we will get through this though. Germany did, and they are better for it.
Just a predictable reaction to a perceived threat to free a market economy that will run its’ course. What hell, in the meantime though.
Even business doesn’t like it.
All the best
Knute (Neo-Lib)
It's interesting..that the Republican party, still calling demos the tax and spend..have morphed into the spend and spend party..with Cheney saying "deficits don't matter"..(ahhh..from the Reagan book of econimics".)
One can be a responsible capitalist AND a socially compassionate citizen...
I think of myself as a compassionate pragmatist..
The USA has never lived up to its Life,Liberty and Pursuit of happiness line in the Bill Of Rights.
People need to have an absolute right to themselves: to do with and to themselves as they see fit.
This kind of creative Freedom is what produces the remarkable people who make the future better for everyone.
More freedom.
Well, I am trying it on for size and I’m liking it.
Neo-Liberal,, Green-Liberal. Happy-Liberal. Live-Liberal.
They even let you cuss a little when you get angry or have something really important you want to stress.
All the best
Knute (Neo-Lib)
No, on the serious side, the left, bolstered by the far left actually is quickly linking and becoming organized.
Now if we could just detach ourselves from those 911 conpiracists.
As for the 'Desperate Housewives' phenom, my dad's wife is a 'RIGHT OR WRONG BUSHIE' who positively will not miss a single episode, and I, godless libertine that I am, consider it brainless, banal dreck.
Hmmmmm, now that I think about it, that makes perfect sense, all things considered.
Urban liberals have the issues...
http://www.urbanarchipelago.com/
They just don't have the soccer moms.
Just go over to the crib and take a look.
This Multi-Generational war the Neo-Conquers want is going to get them into the history books and our children who knows where.
Dear God all mighty, these children are OUR FUTURE!
What if one of these tiny children is our next George Bailey, and their,,, Wonderful Life,,,,, is cut short and there IS no Bailey Building and Loan?
Not just a bad DREAM,,, but NO DREAMS.
Gosh!
Be reasonable here.
All the best
Knute (Neo-LIB)
I think if the Dems would listen to their grassroots voters and 86ed the DLC, they couldn't lose. Of course, they'll have to get courageous enough to attack redherrings and lies from the right. If they'd just realize that the right can't win on its values only, hense the sudden turn to "righteousness," they'd dominate.
"Others, including the campaign to improve the standing of liberals in the world of think tanks, television, and the radio, have fallen flat"
With regard to the radio, if I remember correctly progressive radio made up less than 1% of the market share only 3 years ago, up to 10% today.
That is an ENORMOUS jump. Imagine that increase in market share for any other sort of business and the buzz it would create.
theyoungturks.com