There is chatter on the liberal blogosphere and among political analysts that Americans are moving left after three decades of conservatism. After all, presidential candidates -- including Republicans -- are talking about health care reform. Concerns about poverty and those less well off have crept back into the Democratic agenda. The failures in Iraq have caused most voters to reevaluate the hawkish agenda of the right.
But is a shift really taking place? Are we in a period like the 1970s, when a conservative revolution swept through American politics and changed the terms of public debate? The answer is "maybe."
The experience of conservatives in the 1970s suggests that the path to electoral power is difficult even at the most opportune time. In the 1970s, conservatives were exceptionally well organized and seized the tentpole issues that could rally voters to their side. In the 1980 president election, Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter. He brought the conservative movement into the White House after making inroads in the South as well as with northeastern and Midwestern blue-collar voters, formerly loyal Democrats.
Today, the opportunity for a liberal revival certainly exists. Public support for militarism -- a staple of the conservative movement -- has diminished since 2003. The war in Iraq weakened enthusiasm for aggressive U.S. military intervention overseas. Polls show that Americans are not supportive of the most extensive ground war undertaken since Vietnam. Few people are calling for a return to the draft, and the widespread sacrifice it entails. The war has also revealed the limitations of our military capacity. As a result, the possibility for politicians to promote a foreign policy agenda that revolves around diplomacy, economic measures, and non-military solutions have improved.
As for social norms, conservatives have not overturned the revolution of the 1960s. Abortion remains legal. While affirmative action is under fire, the basic notion of equal rights for women and African Americans remains strong within the electorate. Moreover, popular culture is filled with images of sexuality and violence despite the best efforts of the Moral Majority. Desperate Housewives has become a pop culture phenomenon, its combination of sexuality and campy self-parody revealing deep uncertainties about gender roles. Americans in the red part of the country seem as enthralled with these seductive entertainers as those in the blue states.
Yet opportunity is one thing, success is another.
One key reason conservatives succeeded in the 1970 was organizational skills. When liberals faced a crisis over Vietnam and the social policy debates of the 1960s, conservatives took advantage of that moment by building an organizational infrastructure that included political action committees, volunteer operations, radio talk shows, think tanks, and a direct mail network.
In recent years, liberals have attempted to strengthen themselves in similar fashion. Some of efforts, like creating a vibrant presence on the Internet and improving lobbying tactics on Capitol Hill, have been successful. Others, including the campaign to improve the standing of liberals in the world of think tanks, television, and the radio, have fallen flat.
Conservative activists also succeeded because they focused on specific issues that could bring together different factions unhappy with the Democratic Party. Politicians like Reagan realized that themes like anti-communism and tax cuts could temporarily mask the deep disagreements that existed among conservatives and create a durable coalition.
In the past, liberals have found these kinds of issues as well. As the historian Meg Jacobs wrote, New Deal liberals built a left-center alliance by using the issue of consumer power to unite middle and working-class Democrats. But liberals don't currently have those kinds of issues. The closest is the opposition to the war in Iraq. But, an issue based on opposition to an existing policy is not the most effective for building a broad-based movement that can last.
Today the time looks right for liberalism, but that is no guarantee for success. The 1970s show that mobilization and issue selection are as important as good opportunities. While liberals have strengthened their political infrastructure, their movement culture is still not as vibrant as what conservatism built from the grass roots to Washington. Nor have liberals found the issues that can bridge those on the left and at the center of the Democratic Party.
But there is a long presidential race ahead. The Democrats have time to address this. We don't know if this is a period akin to the 1970s. History shows that activists and political leaders need to make things happen. Whether liberals will recreate the success of the right will be one big question shaping American politics in the coming years.
Julian E. Zelizer is Professor of History and Public Affairs at Princeton University. He is writing a history of the politics of national security which will be published by Yale University Press. Next year Harvard University Press will publish a book that he co-edited, "Rightward Bound: Making America Conservative in the 1970s." He is also the author of "On Capitol Hill" and the editor of "The American Congress."