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Katie Bardaro

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Falling Unemployment Rate Not Always Good News

Posted: 09/07/2012 3:02 pm

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their August jobs report today and the news is bittersweet. The national unemployment rate did fall to 8.1 percent (down from 8.3 percent last month), but the number of new jobs added was only 96,000. This number was far below the expectations of economists and the hopes of the Democratic Party.

To make matters worse, the falling unemployment rate wasn't due to fewer unemployed workers, but rather to more discouraged workers dropping out of the labor force because they felt there were no jobs for them.

Nonetheless, the news isn't bad for everyone. There were sectors where employment increased, such as professional and technical services and health care. These sectors coincide well with what we observe in The PayScale Index -- industries that experienced significant increases in pay last quarter (Q2) were also ones that added a relatively large number of jobs in August.

For example, professional and technical services added 26,800 jobs last month and about half of these new jobs came from the computer systems design and related services industry. In comparison, wages for both IT jobs and the professional and tech industry grew by 1.8 percent in Q2 (compared to only 1.2 percent nationally).

Health care is an industry that has suffered little relative to other industries over the last few years. During the Great Recession, when national wages fell by almost 2 percent, wages in health care dropped a measly 0.5 percent and then started to grow again in the latter half of 2010, which was earlier than most other industries. In fact, health care has had the best wage growth since 2006 (the base year) of all job families measured by The PayScale Index -- 9.4 percent compared to 6.5 percent nationally.

Similar to the strong wage growth, employment has also performed well in this sector, rising consistently over the last few months and finishing August off with the addition of 16,700 new jobs. As another example of good news for employment in this sector, the BLS projects the health care industry will add 5.6 million more jobs by 2020.

One other sector that saw a large increase in employment was food services and drinking places, which added 28,000 jobs in August. Employment growth in this sector isn't always a good sign, however, as this is a sector often flooded with underemployed workers. Underemployed workers fall into two general groups: 1) those that are desperate for work, but unable to find jobs that utilize their skills and education and 2) those that desire full-time work, but can only find part-time work. Working at a fast food counter or as a barista may be the only option for a desperate laborer.

Katie Bardaro is the lead economist and data analytics manager for PayScale.com

Follow PayScale on Twitter: @payscale

Like PayScale on Facebook: facebook.com/PayScale

 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
03:09 PM on 09/08/2012
So the entire purpose of life is to work? What if the unemployment rate went up to 100% and yet we were all happy and comfortable? What would people think then? Could it ever be? Of course it could.
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Viper1st
multi quasi faceted
12:47 PM on 09/08/2012
12.8 million U.S. Citizens out of work

What's the justification in "insourcing" 1.7 million illegals into the U.S. Workforce at a cost of $585 million?
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SoylentGreenIsPeople
You know how to use Google too !
09:40 AM on 09/08/2012
The new jobs are just not available to U.S. citizens.

In the video attorneys explain how they assist employers in running classified ads with the goal of NOT finding any qualified applicants, and how they disqualify even the most qualified Americans in order to secure green cards for H-1b workers.

"Our goal is clearly NOT to find a qualified U.S. worker ... our objective is to get this person a green card ... so certainly we are not going to try to find a place where applicants would be most numerous. "

This is what Politicians and companies really mean by a shortage of skilled U.S. workers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPQtpnJPSZI
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
03:15 PM on 09/08/2012
You are surprised that those who have a reason to do so are gaming the system? As long as they hold to the letter of the law, what can be done?
12:48 AM on 09/08/2012
There are fewer workers today than when BO took office. That makes him the first president since FDR to have negative employment growth.
There are more than 4 million fewer employed today than at the peak levels during the bush admin.

That is the hole that BO said he could dig us out of when he boasted that "I can fix the economy". He lied.
09:46 PM on 09/07/2012
The jobs suck and everyone knows it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Josh Crawford
Just the facts, man!
06:35 PM on 09/07/2012
Adding 28,000 food service employees in August is actually quite significant. At this time of year, most summer businesses are usually laying off workers and winter businesses have not yet begun to hire. That's how it works in Lake Tahoe (where I live now) and how it worked in the Adirondacks where I grew up and how it worked in Flagstaff and Scottsdale AZ where I worked in the mid-1990s.
08:35 PM on 09/09/2012
The food service workers are for cafeterias in grade and high schools.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Josh Crawford
Just the facts, man!
01:01 AM on 09/10/2012
A) says who?
B) even if that's so, it's still good and would STILL have to offset all the seasonal jobs being cut right now.
C) According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Employment in food services and drinking places increased by 28,000 in August and by 298,000 over the past 12 months." How is that not good news?
04:56 PM on 09/07/2012
Hmm, I wonder what effect the fact that employers are only hiring "currently employed" employees, has on the job market stats? See, I know that many jobs are only being offered to other currently employed employees.

The not-so-secret tactic is to make sure that the employment figures don't change for the better. Headhunters are advertising jobs and one of the requirements is that the job seeker must be currently holding a job. They call it "just looking for an employee that has longevity in their current job" (wink, wink).

See, if they start hiring unemployed people, the unemployment rates go down - then that would signal a good sign that employers are hiring again, and that would be a big plus for Obama. That being said - Republican employers have a plan in place to prevent that from happening.