Friends of the Wildcatters know that we have great affection for Ireland -- indeed, one of us is in Hibernia as we speak. And, Ireland is abuzz in political talk arising from events across the Irish Sea. There's a great deal of talk about Brexit, specifically concern that the long struggle for recovery will be undone by a loss of free trade with Ireland's 2nd-largest largest trading partner. There are specific worries about the loss of the open border between the Republic and Northern Ireland that go beyond trade -- the Irish have spent two decades moving back and forth across the border like one people. Sinn Fein is demanding a border poll. Republican and Northern Ireland leaders will need to confer on how to manage the coming changes of the next several months. We're going to get into all this in the coming month, but we thought we'd start with a little preview of the current electoral situation in the Republic.
Background: To explore this situation, the reader can benefit from a quick primer on the historic Irish parties. Fine Gael is a Christian democratic, market-oriented party that originated with the "pro-treaty" Michael Collins wing of Irish politics in the 1920s. Fianna Fáil is a populist party that started from Éamon de Valera's "anti-treaty" wing of the same era. Both parties descend from the original Sinn Féin. The Labour Party was founded in 1912 by James Connolly and other members of the Irish labor movement. It is politically to the left of the other two historic parties. And finally, the modern Sinn Féin party emerged after a split with the Workers Party. It is active in Ireland and Northern Ireland, is historically tied to the Provisional Irish Republican Army, and is politically left of the other historic parties. Sinn Féin is historically supportive of separatist movements not just in Northern Ireland, but also Scotland. There are other minor parties in Irish politics, including Green Party which once held great promise.
The Fragile Tiger: Ireland has had its woes. The seven centuries of English occupation, uprising, civil war, and the Troubles mark this still-developing country. The Celtic Tiger economy (An Tíogar Ceilteach ) collapsed after two decades of vibrant economic growth. There was dramatic popping of the property bubble, a loss of one-seventh of the economy in three years, and 14% unemployment as recently as 2011. Critics contend that, despite improvements in education and lowering of corporate taxes, Ireland's private sector wasted the opportunity to invest in its future, and that favoritism of special interests by government exacerbated the problem. David McWIlliams observed pithily that "The entire Irish episode will be studied internationally in years to come as an example of how not to do things."
At the time of the collapse, Fianna Fáil was leading the government in coalition with the Greens and the Progressives. Then the government fell when the tiny number of Greens withdrew, thereby breaking the parliamentary majority in the Dáil Éireann. But it was the financial crisis that doomed the Celtic Tiger, and which ultimately led to the coalition's ouster in the 2011 elections for the 31st Dáil Éireann. Those elections held a startling rebuke for the governing party. The opposition Fine Gael took 76 seats of 166 seats and Labour another 37 seats; overall 46% of the members of the Dáil Éireann were newly elected. The graphic below shows the contraction of Fianna Fáil, which lost nearly 3/4ths of their seats and contracted to just 19 members.
The Muddled Result of the 2016 Elections: It isn't getting any clearer. In case you missed it, in February of this year the Irish Republic had another parliamentary election for the 158-seat Dáil Éireann. Again, the economy loomed large. The recovery was underway - Ireland's economy grew 6.2% in 2015 and was projected to grow 4.3% in 2017. But the efforts of the incumbent coalition to promote manifestos such as "Let's Keep the Recovery Going" (Fine Gael) did not resonate.
Voters again sent a governing coalition's numbers tumbling. Fine Gael and Labor had already lost a net of 14 seats in by-elections from 2011-15. In the 2016 general election, Fine Gael fell to 50 seats and Labour to just seven, far short of the 80 seats needed to create a government. Neither Fianna Fáil (44 seats) nor Sinn Fein (23 seats) were willing to coalesce, and the remaining 34 seats went to a dizzying array of independents (19) and minor candidates from five other parties. The three old line political parties are holding roughly two-thirds of the seats in the Dáil Éireann, but none is much above a quarter of all seats.
The Descent Into Fragmentation: William Butler Yeats observed, "being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." For the last five years, the Irish have plodded through recovery. And the recovery has devastated every political party - except one.
Enda Kenny, leader of Fine Gael formed a minority government - if he's stepping aside, no one is sure who will lead. So, Ireland faces an opportunity for a sorting. But is there any party or leaders strong enough to create a stable governing coalition? The Ipsos/Irish Times poll doesn't show broad-based support for any current party leader. Fianna Fáil's Michael Martin is at 43% approval, followed by Fine Gael's Enda Kenny at 33%, Brendan Howlin of Labour at 26%, and Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams at 31%. The government's approval rating is 33% -- still better than the American Congress! But no party or coalition
The National Question? So who is climbing? Sinn Féin. The party, focused on relatively liberal politics and also national identity, has quadrupled its seats in eight years. Gerry Adams party has very nearly replaced Labour as the largest principle left economic party. And, unlike the scattered but progressive Independents, Sinn Féin is well defined as a nationalist party. Recent polling performed indicates a decline in support for Independents and the minor parties are similarly crashing and Labour is stuck with very low support and threatens to disappear. And, there is overwhelming support for a one-state solution in Ireland after the Brexit.
As the other, more established major parties are both associated with economic failure and stagnation, can a nationalist party with liberal leanings move forward in the Irish political scene? Can a call for a border poll -a vote on reunifying Ireland - sufficiently energize voters to propel Sinn Fein into political contention? It is doubtful, but the events of the past two years in Scotland, England, and even the U.S. indicate that there is an undercurrent of populism and nationalism in at work in the old Anglosphere that is manifesting in many different forms. Sinn Féin's turn, could it come next? And if so, what are the consequences for future political stability in the British Isles?
