Over the last several weeks there has been a greatdeal of speculation regarding how the increasinglybitter and contentious Democratic primary couldultimately effect the 2008 presidential election, butat this point Democrats may have reason to be evenmore concerned about the 2012 election.
Nearly a year ago as I was working on my book, PartyCrashing, I interviewed a Democratic political operative whosaid that he firmly believed Sen. Clinton would winthe Democratic nomination. However he also told methat if the primary race remained tight, the Clintoncampaign would be tempted to engage in tactics thatcould arguably be viewed to have racial over (orunder) tones. This operative (who was not consultingfor a specific campaign but requested anonymitybecause of a longstanding relationship with theClintons and other Democratic players on competingcampaigns at the time of the interview) said that suchtactics could present the opportunity that Republicanshave been waiting for.
According to the operative, if Barack Obama emerged asa strong primary candidate but eventually flamed outdue to his own failings-an ill-advised comment on hispart, a poor debate performance or just provinghimself to be a presidential candidate who is great onpaper but not so great in practice, a la BobKerrey-then life, and Democratic Party politics, wouldgo on. But, if there were a perception that he wassomehow "screwed out of the nomination," (theoperative's words, not mine) then the fallout forDemocrats would potentially last well beyond the 2008election. The reason? Because the politics of youngerblack voters are not as innately loyal to theDemocratic Party as the politics of their parents andgrandparents. Black voters born after the Civil Rightsera are increasingly declaring their politicalindependence, so to speak.
According to a poll I conducted in conjunction withSuffolk University's Political Research Center 35% of blackAmericans ages 18 to 24 identify themselves asIndependents. Additionally, 41% of total surveyrespondents, ages 18 to 45 who were registeredDemocrats declined to identify themselves as"committed Democrats," instead identifying themselvesas "politically independent." In an interview forParty Crashing former Secretary of State ColinPowell noted that, "My sense among young Blacksinclude my own 3 adult children is that increasingly,they to a large extent don't consider themselves justas Black politically. They are increasingly looking atpolitics as to how it best reflects their interestsand desires and goals, therefore they are makingdifferent choices."
As I attempted to explain (albeit not as articulatelyas I would have liked) during my recent appearance onMSNBC, Barack Obama's current widespread support amongblack Americans was not something he came by easily.In fact as recently as last February the New YorkTimes cited a Washington Post poll that had Sen. Clinton leading handily among blackvoters by nearly 40 points. However, younger blackprofessionals have to a large extent been a keycomponent of Sen. Obama's support, although not forthe reasons you might think.
During interviews for Party Crashing I spoke withnumerous younger, black voters who expressedadmiration for Obama, but not because of his skincolor and not because of his party label. I spoke withmany black registered Independents, most raised byDemocratic parents, who found the idea of hiscandidacy appealing in large part because it did notfit the traditional Democratic mold, but seemed totranscend traditional labels, much like their own. Ispoke with self-described social liberals, along withfiscal conservatives-both who seemed utterly convincedthat Obama's politics in some ways mirrored their own,a notion that has been expressed by Obama supportersacross the demographic spectrum. In one of the mostsurprising revelations Erika Harold, the former MissAmerica who is probably best remembered for heroutspoken conservative activism on issues such asabstinence only education, explained that she votedfor Obama over conservative stalwart Alan Keyes, thevery same year that she appeared at the RepublicanNational Convention.
Along with his apparent ability to transcend partylabels is his ability to transcend America'straditional definition of black leadership. While 72%of the 400 survey respondents cited in the bookdeclared that Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton do notspeak for them, they added that the opinions they mostvalue are those of Oprah Winfrey and Barack Obamaequally, with Colin Powell following close behind.
So it's arguable that the reasons that some youngerblack Americans have gravitated towards Obama'scandidacy are for the very same reasons that youngerwhite Americans have; a desire to move beyondAmerica's partisan political divides and for some theracial divide as well. The only difference is thathistorically Democrats have been able to live with thecomfort of knowing that regardless of who theDemocratic nominee eventually is ultimately blackvoters will follow him or her.
But this is no longer the case.
Twenty-five percent of survey respondents noted thatObama's candidacy would make them more likely to votein the presidential election. So what happens if he isnot the nominee? As the Democratic operative Iinterviewed explained, whether Obama loses the primaryis really less of the issue than how. "Honestly, ifthe GOP is smart," he said, and Obama gets screwed outof the nomination, if I were them I would bottle andsell that to younger black voters and ask them, 'Whyare you staying over there?' What's in it for you?'"Several months ago my editor and I may have felt thatthis was a bit of slightly melodramatic speculation onthe part of this particular source, but now here weare.
As Democrats debate do-overs in two primary states andthe fallout from Ferraro-gate, John McCain and the GOPget to fundraise and field feel-good questions fromthe press about whether or not they will one-up theDemocrats by drafting someone who is both black and awoman for their ticket. The threat of Condoleezza Ricedidn't seem all that imposing a few weeks ago but inthe wake of the ongoing Democratic civil war she andJohn McCain really would not have to do all that muchto look like more of a team than Hillary Clinton andBarack Obama probably will at this point. The GOP'sbiggest hurdle in attracting black voters hashistorically been it's perceived racist history datingback to the civil rights era. Having a black Americanon a presidential ticket might go a long way inimproving such an image-particularly among ageneration that has no recollection of the civilrights era. And Condoleezza Rice is not nearly aspolarizing among black Americans as other well-knownblack conservatives such as Supreme Court JusticeClarence Thomas.
Demographic shifts in politics don't always happenovernight. After all it took conservatives nearlythirty years to spark a revolution. It remains to beseen if and when young, black Independents will sparkone of their own, if not this election cycle than inthe future.
Keli Goff is the author of "Party Crashing: How theHip-Hop Generation Declared Political Independence."