Why Democrats Should Already be Worried About the 2012 Election

Over the last several weeks there has been a great deal of speculation regarding how the increasingly bitter and contentious Democratic primary could ultimately effect the 2008 presidential election, but at this point Democrats may have reason to be even more concerned about the 2012 election.

Nearly a year ago as I was working on my book, Party Crashing, I interviewed a Democratic political operative who said that he firmly believed Sen. Clinton would win the Democratic nomination. However he also told me that if the primary race remained tight, the Clinton campaign would be tempted to engage in tactics that could arguably be viewed to have racial over (or under) tones. This operative (who was not consulting for a specific campaign but requested anonymity because of a longstanding relationship with the Clintons and other Democratic players on competing campaigns at the time of the interview) said that such tactics could present the opportunity that Republicans have been waiting for.

According to the operative, if Barack Obama emerged as a strong primary candidate but eventually flamed out due to his own failings-an ill-advised comment on his part, a poor debate performance or just proving himself to be a presidential candidate who is great on paper but not so great in practice, a la Bob Kerrey-then life, and Democratic Party politics, would go on. But, if there were a perception that he was somehow "screwed out of the nomination," (the operative's words, not mine) then the fallout for Democrats would potentially last well beyond the 2008 election. The reason? Because the politics of younger black voters are not as innately loyal to the Democratic Party as the politics of their parents and grandparents. Black voters born after the Civil Rights era are increasingly declaring their political independence, so to speak.

According to a poll I conducted in conjunction with Suffolk University's Political Research Center 35% of black Americans ages 18 to 24 identify themselves as Independents. Additionally, 41% of total survey respondents, ages 18 to 45 who were registered Democrats declined to identify themselves as "committed Democrats," instead identifying themselves as "politically independent." In an interview for Party Crashing former Secretary of State Colin Powell noted that, "My sense among young Blacks include my own 3 adult children is that increasingly, they to a large extent don't consider themselves just as Black politically. They are increasingly looking at politics as to how it best reflects their interests and desires and goals, therefore they are making different choices."

As I attempted to explain (albeit not as articulately as I would have liked) during my recent appearance on MSNBC, Barack Obama's current widespread support among black Americans was not something he came by easily. In fact as recently as last February the New York Times cited a Washington Post poll that had Sen. Clinton leading handily among black voters by nearly 40 points. However, younger black professionals have to a large extent been a key component of Sen. Obama's support, although not for the reasons you might think.

During interviews for Party Crashing I spoke with numerous younger, black voters who expressed admiration for Obama, but not because of his skin color and not because of his party label. I spoke with many black registered Independents, most raised by Democratic parents, who found the idea of his candidacy appealing in large part because it did not fit the traditional Democratic mold, but seemed to transcend traditional labels, much like their own. I spoke with self-described social liberals, along with fiscal conservatives-both who seemed utterly convinced that Obama's politics in some ways mirrored their own, a notion that has been expressed by Obama supporters across the demographic spectrum. In one of the most surprising revelations Erika Harold, the former Miss America who is probably best remembered for her outspoken conservative activism on issues such as abstinence only education, explained that she voted for Obama over conservative stalwart Alan Keyes, the very same year that she appeared at the Republican National Convention.

Along with his apparent ability to transcend party labels is his ability to transcend America's traditional definition of black leadership. While 72% of the 400 survey respondents cited in the book declared that Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton do not speak for them, they added that the opinions they most value are those of Oprah Winfrey and Barack Obama equally, with Colin Powell following close behind.

So it's arguable that the reasons that some younger black Americans have gravitated towards Obama's candidacy are for the very same reasons that younger white Americans have; a desire to move beyond America's partisan political divides and for some the racial divide as well. The only difference is that historically Democrats have been able to live with the comfort of knowing that regardless of who the Democratic nominee eventually is ultimately black voters will follow him or her.

But this is no longer the case.

Twenty-five percent of survey respondents noted that Obama's candidacy would make them more likely to vote in the presidential election. So what happens if he is not the nominee? As the Democratic operative I interviewed explained, whether Obama loses the primary is really less of the issue than how. "Honestly, if the GOP is smart," he said, and Obama gets screwed out of the nomination, if I were them I would bottle and sell that to younger black voters and ask them, 'Why are you staying over there?' What's in it for you?'" Several months ago my editor and I may have felt that this was a bit of slightly melodramatic speculation on the part of this particular source, but now here we are.

As Democrats debate do-overs in two primary states and the fallout from Ferraro-gate, John McCain and the GOP get to fundraise and field feel-good questions from the press about whether or not they will one-up the Democrats by drafting someone who is both black and a woman for their ticket. The threat of Condoleezza Rice didn't seem all that imposing a few weeks ago but in the wake of the ongoing Democratic civil war she and John McCain really would not have to do all that much to look like more of a team than Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama probably will at this point. The GOP's biggest hurdle in attracting black voters has historically been it's perceived racist history dating back to the civil rights era. Having a black American on a presidential ticket might go a long way in improving such an image-particularly among a generation that has no recollection of the civil rights era. And Condoleezza Rice is not nearly as polarizing among black Americans as other well-known black conservatives such as Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.

Demographic shifts in politics don't always happen overnight. After all it took conservatives nearly thirty years to spark a revolution. It remains to be seen if and when young, black Independents will spark one of their own, if not this election cycle than in the future.

Keli Goff is the author of "Party Crashing: How the Hip-Hop Generation Declared Political Independence."

Comments

[GoodbyeKitty]

Well said, Kelli

I am one of those who believe that a democrat victory in 08 may be the last one we see and It isnow time for a strong progressive independent party to materialize while we still have the freedom to do so

[signifyingnothing]

Something that troubles me about the way this election has been framed, both by HuffPo and also by so-called "young voters": Do you really feel it's the responsibility of the democrats to court you? How about young voters of all races take initiative themselves? How about you run for president rather than whine and gripe about how little the baby boomers have served you? It's great to consider whether or not black voters should feel independent from a party--or independent from one another--but to couch it in such a way that it reads like a threat to democrats in general seems really immature to me. Take the party over. Or start a new one! I thought identity politics were being left behind with this historical candidacy.

[AnninCA]

Hear! Hear!

It is so obviously the age of entitlement.

[OrganizersWin]

Party politics, about 5 steps outside anything useful.... (we saw the 'Southern Strategy' with Nixon, Reagan, up to Rove, we also maybe saw Bullworth with Warren Beatty, right?)
In short ----------------- a 2-party system is indicative of a nation with 'free elections' of something not very short of mental disorder. Maybe another adjective... ignorance, immaturity, silliness, blindness, etc. With more parties, voices and choices, the roots of progressive activism flourish more, and true coalitions and platform transformations occur, and oh yeah......... it helps with the rigged elections and lobby interest bribes as well. We are a very 'dumbed down' nation, however, so we play a 'lesser of two evil' game, that should have tired us out 30 years ago. If the people of America cannot organize and act to end a dumb occupation, gain health care for all, or let us say even "have our damn vote counted accurately", do we really think that voting for corporate candidates based on empty rhetoric, and even worse, tabloid gossip, celebrity nonsense is going to 'get things done' for us? We should be getting ready to VOTE OUT the dems who betrayed us for the 20th time. Schumer gave us Mukasey, Pelosi put impeachment off the table, on and on. But I hear NOTHING, but analysis on how campaigns are going... pretty lame.

[amyd]

Great article

[rwferr]

And also Colin Powell talks about his children breaking out well he is the one that was a Secretary of State in the most corrupt administration in modern history, a man who destroyed his own legacy by giving that lie filled Iraq speech at the UN so I would say that the republican realignment started with his generation not his children's.

[rwferr]

Well if young black voters look to the Republican party and see something that is good for them and that they can identify with then that is who they should vote for. I believe that that love affair would be fairly short lived but who knows. People should vote their interests obviously. I can't really see how young blacks people's interests on the whole are the same as evangelicals and rich whites in Country Clubs. Sounds more like they would be mad about Obama and vote for Republicans out of spite which is in fact voting against their own interests. But they have the right to do that too. It is the final results, though, that they may end up not so happy with.

[OrganizersWin]

There was a brief flicker 3 to 4 decades ago, where the "democratic" party had good rhetoric. It was always the "progressive" activist, organizers, marchers, protesters, consumer advocates, civil rights lawyers, students, etc. and never the politicians who gave us anything in this country. Sen. Obama's 'politics', if that is to mean his 'platform', 'positions', and 'posture', is clearly the best of the 3 remaining, and your article's analysis has no argument from me. I have always felt that minorities, blacks, etc. should always have voted for independents, especially Mr. Nader in modern elections, probably the most important figure in modern American political culture. Even Sen. Obama's winning rhetoric pales in comparison to the 'dead-on' analysis of almost every issue by Ralph, as well as 4 decades of experience basically building an entire progressive movement out of the 70's.
Modern issues such as Bush crimes, ballot access, election fraud will NOT be focused on. NAFTA is going nowhere, and health care will only become single payer when millions of us get upset enough to 'move'. Social and economic justice..... consumer rights and safety, workers rights and safety, citizen rights and liberties, fair elections, financial regulation? Trade policy, tax policy, foreign policy, fiscal policy, monetary policy.... oh and WAR? Celebrity gossip presidential politics for us 'democratic' voters.... progressives hopefully again. If we are to cast a vote every 4 years and think it says something, then making it count would be a good idea, eh? We are TORTURING PEOPLE and ARRESTING without charge, among other atrocities.... let's talk about the 'kitchen sink' some more, shall we? Good luck.

[Independentjunkie]

Ms Golf,

why does the democratic party owe anything 'more' to any groups within itself?

why do you see the great Black hope and not the need to save the Great democratic Hope?

why is it always that we have to be threatened about how the AA's will issue a calls to arms?

why is it as a non white/latino/black... I feel your article , pulls us back into the same old ' if you ain't black , your are my oppresor?'

I as male 39yrs of age ---will tell you. Especially after this Dr Wright thing ... we are turned off from voting if he wins the nomination. Les you forget 40% of hillay's votes will not vote for barack vs only 10% of his voters.

[aftershock]

Yeah, in Mississippi, where in think she got crushed by what, 20%? But yeah, if you want to pretend Mississippi is indicative of the entire electorate ok, guess he won't have to worry about that 40% than huh?

[stell]

I think most of the Right Wing Talk Show Host are very racists. In fact, if it wasn't for right wing radio, the Republican's perception among blacks would probably skyrocket. But Limbaugh, and co are just too much for stomach. --kingfishstew

I'll tell you Limbaugh is a real bastard. He singlehandedly kept Hillary alive in Texas, and made Mississippi look more racially polarized that is really was. Look, if Hillary won 72% of the white vote in Mississippi, and Republicans made up 25% of her vote, (assuming that almost all of the crossover Republican vote was white) then Hillary in actually only won about 47% of the white vote, hardly racially polarized as it was portrayed in the media. Perception is reality, and that bastard (Rush) is really exacerbating this and is to blame for much of this racial strife.

[realitytrumpsbull]

No offense, and nothing personal, but I think that if the ultimate goal in society is equality, then people should stop trying to identify themselves by ethnicity. Just a thought. What are the concepts and principles that you, as an individual voter, support and would vote in favor of? Black vote, white vote, latino vote, asian vote, who cares, you're an american citizen, in my view that means you should be striving to focus on the issues, and not skin color. Anything less is disingenuous and antithetical to my understanding, at least, of the 'american way', which is to get people to act like and be proud of being CITIZENS of the United States, and forswear systematic ethnic divisiveness. MY 'gang' colors are the tri-color, the red, the white, the blue, and MY 'gang' has about 300+ million people in it, maybe 'we' are globally a population minority, but under majority rule, and that flag, we can do nothing short of magic, in my estimation, which is why I'm putting in for George's position, I'd like a shot at being the head magician for a couple years, what's more, what's more, I'm applying as a 'temp', try-before-you-buy,
hourly wage scale, even, turn this whole business on its' ear and re-declare the People to be 'the government', and get them directly involved in getting this place fixed up. Lots of work to do, don't get much done by sub-dividing and finger-pointing etc...

[Nommo]

Of course, if the Mayans got anything right, we should all be worried about 2012.

[DAbraha]

You don't have to be guilty of stealing the election, the attempt of it by itself is shameful that I can never think of voting for Clinton.

[rwferr]

She has attempted to steal nothing. She is not doing anything that the rules do not allow. When the rules allow a thing that is not stealing anything.

[loper2008]

I think it is good that black voters are shopping around. Feminists need to do this too, if its ever possible, because if you are a consistent voting block you get taken for granted. I know during Bill's administration the feminists from NOW could never get meeting with his White House. That's why I'm very confused by their undying support for Hillary now.

[Hopalongpoppyseed]

As a 62 year old left coast lefty, I appreciate the many insights in this article. I think that what may be in the stars, is not only the splintering of the the Democrats, but the possible realignment of the Democratic leadership away from the DLC faction towards a new progressive majority. If however, the DLC types insist on destroying the Democratic party, in which I have served as a precinct officer since 1979, I am ready to join a new coalition in a new National Progressive Party. If Obama succeeds, we may be able to take the first steps towards a new progressive majority; just the first steps. By the way, the Republicans are a hopeless cancer on the nation. They can not be redeemed.

[rwferr]

That realignment would make for a much weakened party though as most democrats are not progressives. They are middle class working people who mostly vote their pocketbooks and don't give a damn about progressive politics. I thinnk the more likely outcome would be that progressives end up starting their own mostly unsuccessful party ala Nader etc. Hell they already have one-the Green Party.

[Hopalongpoppyseed]

rwferr, Yes you are correct in so much of your evaluation. The history of third parties is to have their best ideas absorbed by one of the major parties. What I can imagine is a coalition of the progressives and the "middle class people who mostly vote their pocketbooks," as we had during the New Deal. It does not have to be a new party, but it can be a shift of leadership and vision. If the DLC vision remains dominant then Democrats will lose more elections as we were doing before this recent progressive surge. Those middle class voters do appreciate it when political parties show convictions and in their guts, they understand triangulation as politics as usual.

[Rescisco]

By 2012, we will all have much more to worry about if the Republicans win another presidential election. None of it will have anything to do with the pointless slugfest now tearing the Democratic party apart. We feel miserable enough now, but we will be absolutely forlorn then. What has this campaign "inspired" in us? Our hope for delivreance is poisoned as we grow pettish by degrees, and sullen; and then, angry at each other, angry at ourseleves, angry at everyrging in general. The stone will remain at the bottom of the hill as a result.