I admit it is with a certain level of savage joy that I'm watching the Republican Party come apart at the seams. The reason I know this is because I get the same feelings every time I watch a Steph Curry highlight reel or rewatch Larry Wilmore's White House Correspondents Dinner Speech. I admit the level of self-love black people are experiencing in the last few months has been somewhat emphatically beautiful to look at. #Blackgirlmagic, Beyonce's Superbowl performance, Harriet Tubman on the $20, etc. Wouldn't it be great if as the last cherry on top of the proverbial cake the backlash against the Obama Presidency actually destroyed the party that was so open about making sure he never got anything done? I don't know what the black equivalent of poetic justice is but I'm pretty sure it looks something like this.
God Bless America.
I won't credit Donald Trump with the almost certain demise of one of our longstanding political parties. The Republicans as a whole were headed for a reckoning regardless given that their base is comprised of an aging, declining, white populace and a minority or two sprinkled here and there for proverbial seasoning. Given the current demographics of this country and our rising Latino population it was bound to happen that minorities are going to be a major determining factor in future elections. If President Obama's election didn't tell you that ask Bernie Sanders why his campaign is faltering with minority voters. (And no it's not corporate media or a rigged election system.) White males don't carry elections anymore, that is simply the facts at this point. The Republicans seemed to have gotten the memo after 2012 but then they lost it again.
Naturally there was going to be some backlash to increasing social standards like LGBT rights and affordable health care. Once you combine that with underlying racism prevalent in the Republican base (The Birthers) combine that with a large dose of paranoia regarding the media and the federal government as an institution well... we find ourselves poised with a reality television star to take the reigns of United States. A loudmouthed, bombastic, empty suit with no foreign or political experience could potentially be president of this country.
Despite this I have faith that the American people are smart enough not to elect The Donald. Nevertheless, I'm making sure my passport is up to date because he's shown a penchant for beating the odds so well that even I didn't imagine he would get anywhere near this far. (That and I've always wanted to travel.) But here is what I foresee happening to the Republican party in the future:
The Social Conservatives will break off and form their own party.
This may sound cynical but I've observed that after you reach a certain threshold of money you really don't care about abortion, gays, or transgender people in bathrooms outside of potential votes. The religious right has long been a major base of the Republican Party and their zealotry is being seen for mostly what a lot of it is: bigotry and a resistance to the changing culture in this country. They are finding out to quickly that most Republicans in power care more about money and the bottom line than they care about making religious texts the sum total of their governing decisions. (Kudos to Nathan Deal.) The lawmakers I have spoken with are comfortable in their views but realize that the world is changing around them and that when you're looking at a potential six billion dollars in lost revenue well...all of a sudden WWJD starts to look like, "How am I going to explain this tax increase to cover the lost revenue to my constituents?" (Ask North Carolina.)
I'd venture that outside of rural areas more people care about steady income and low gas prices than they do about denying gays their rights based on biblical interpretation. Either way, its put a lot of prominent conservatives in a tight position because the religious right wants results based on their faith and the politicians who purportedly share that faith. Good luck with that. I won't deny that there are people who vote based on their religious convictions. Senator Josh Mckoon who led Georgia's most recent fight for religious liberty is one of these people. He also lost his region eight million dollars because of his acerbic personality. And he still lost the fight considering Nathan Deal vetoed his bill because nearly every major business in Georgia thought it was a bad idea. I'm sure Jesus will provide that 8 million dollars some way over there in Columbus Georgia. I hear the guy has a knack for miracles.
If I had to venture a guess Ted Cruz is probably the most prolific of this group and I have a strong feeling he will lead the proverbial exodus of him and his constituents out of the party once Donald gets through wrecking the coalition. Most young people don't have time for abortion and gay rights as major issues and the general consensus of millennials seems to be a collective "meh" for the most part.
The South will likely continue to be a bastion of religious dogma but progressive social standards will likely drown out their voices within a generation or two provided they do not wed themselves and their issues to another major party. The Tea Party's inability to compromise combined with their somewhat pugnacious attitude does not make for effective governance. I have a feeling that once the party split happens we are going to see a greater concerted effort by establishment Republicans to return some sanity to the political process after they spent the last six years fostering discontent in their base. Regardless the Tea Party, despite the loud voices of their candidates and those of their constituents, will see an increasing backlash with Donald Trump at the helm. If the party splits expect their political clout to take a substantial blow as now they will have to beat back both Democrats and the more fiscally conservative elements of the Republican establishment who will seem a lot more sane to moderates.
Speaking of establishment Republicans John Boehner seems so much happier now that he is not Speaker. I think Boehner saw the writing on the wall and got out while he still could. If his excoriating rebuke of Ted Cruz in the Stanford Daily was any indication I think we all know how he feels about the current wave of populism and penchant for government gridlock that has swept through his party like the plague. That's good news for the Libertarian party though.The Libertarian party is likely to get a large influx of fiscal conservatives with a slightly more realistic view of progressing social standards; at least that is the hope. That isn't going to matter in the short run unless they somehow make Libertarian doctrine more palatable to minorities and I can say with authority that the free market isn't going to fix systemic racism.
Still, they have a platform at least and some history in the political process and I expect Paul Ryan to extend an olive branch at some point so he can somehow weasel his way in. The problem is that they are small and unlikely to make gains against Democrats who will seek to cause as much strife as possible in order to make political gains. But once some organizing is done I believe the rest of the Republican establishment will line up behind this new party of low taxes, strong national defense, and business. These are things that they can actually find some consensus with across the aisle without having pesky things like abortion and drug decriminalization causing problems for them. Again Libertarians have a golden opportunity to make some real advances here once it becomes apparent that the Republicans are going to lose the next presidential election and potentially one house of congress. All that anger and frustration has to go somewhere and I guarantee once Ryan and the establishment become the scapegoats for another Clinton presidency I imagine they'll be looking for anyone that will give them the time of day.