Move Over Cold War: The 'Ice War' Cometh

The opening paragraph of Charles Dickens' A Tale of Two Cities captures beautifully the late 18th century zeitgeist, when the thirst for justice led to the French Revolution. Fast forward two centuries, and these lines could just as well refer to the quest for climate justice:

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way....

Likewise, the climate justice journey takes us from hopeful heights (e.g. the IPCC's recent conclusion that renewable sources of energy could more than meet global demand) to despairing lows (the relentless flow of news from climate scientists which suggests we are "going direct the other way").

More than any other place perhaps, the Arctic sits at the equinox between the winter of despair and the spring of hope. Warming more than twice as fast as other parts of the world, it is on the receiving end of climate change. But oil and gas development in the region is also one of the drivers of change. Three recent major news stories put this paradox in the spotlight.

But it's not the headline grabbing factoids that scare me the most. It's this:

Loss of ice and snow in the Arctic enhances climate warming by increasing absorption of the sun's energy at the surface of the planet. It could also dramatically increase emissions of carbon dioxide and methane and change large-scale ocean currents. The combined outcome of these effects is not yet known.

Though God refuses to play dice with the universe (according to Einstein), mankind seems to have no problem betting our very life-support system on a geopolitical craps table.

The second major Arctic story concerned last week's BBC release of WikiLeaks cables which show how all that melting sea-ice has got bordering countries jockeying for position to exploit the marine and mineral riches that will soon be within reach. The cables also reveal that these positions will be protected by military means, suggesting that that the 'Cold War' of decades past could be revived as a new "Ice War."

The BBC's headline phrase, a "race to carve up the Arctic," took me back more than 25 years, when we used to say the same thing about Antarctica:

NASA.gov

I led a campaign in the 1980s to have the region declared a World Park, at a time when governments were preparing to open it up for mining and oil exploration. The Antarctic Treaty of 1959 had established the continent as a de-militarized zone of scientific cooperation, delicately shelving the numerous (and overlapping) territorial claims. Minerals development threatened to destroy not only the pristine environment, but the geopolitical equilibrium.

I'm frequently asked whether the success of the Antarctic campaign could be repeated in the Arctic. It's a tough question. On the one hand, there are major differences between the two regions. For one thing, Antarctica has no native human population, and secondly the laws governing the two polar regions are profoundly different.

On the other hand, it always comes down to political will. If governments decide they want to protect the region, they will find a way to do it. And political will is driven by public demand, which makes anything possible.

Which brings me to the third major Arctic news story. The Arctic Council -- made up of eight countries that border the Arctic Ocean -- met in Greenland from May 11-13. If I were Dickens writing in the "Age of Wisdom" mode, the Council would have responded to all of this dire news by declaring a moratorium on all oil and gas development in the Arctic.

Of course that is not what happened. This being more like the "Age of Incredulity," I can barely bring myself to describe what they actually did. Without the slightest trace of irony, the Council hailed the adoption of its first ever legally binding agreement on (wait for the drumroll... ) search and rescue, to "improve the way Arctic countries respond to emergency calls in the region." The explanation by incoming Swedish chair of the Council says it all: "Arctic countries need enhanced cooperation on many future challenges, not the least being prevention, preparedness and response to oils spills."

I'm all for cooperation, but opening the Arctic to oil and gas development will surely seal our fate of living in the "Age of Foolishness."

What are your thoughts about drilling in the Arctic?