Media coverage of the opening of the Cancun Climate Conference this week suggests that many participants and observers are high on hopes but low on expectations.
Working to achieve the best result, but planning for the worst -- this is a lesson that could also be drawn from the sobering analysis just published by the Royal Society, Britain's foremost scientific body. It examines the implications for living in a world in which temperature rises by 4°C over pre-industrial levels rather than the 2° aspiration set down in the Copenhagen Accord.
The crux of the challenge in Cancun is that powerful countries hold fundamental positions -- strategic red lines which they can or will not cross -- but which are mutually incompatible with those of other major countries or blocs. The only hope of progress, therefore, depends on navigating the stormy seas of tactical compromise. In the words of one observer, "The inability to shift red lines means all sides will have to take tactical risks to open up a pathway forward."
Clearing the Pathway
Launching the climate fund - with money for climate action in the short and long run - is one of the achievable aims for Mexico. The UN Secretary-General's Advisory Group on Climate Finance tells us that raising $100 billion a year by 2020 is feasible.
Agreement on technology transfer, a deal on the protection of forests, closing loopholes in the Kyoto Protocol and establishing a framework for addressing adaptation - these are all attainable.
Positive results could provide a huge dose of confidence and momentum for when we get to the more difficult issues of sorting out arrangements for the next commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, clarifying the way forward on the legal terms for a final overall agreement, and finding a formula for measuring and verifying commitments.
Ultimately, that pathway will need to cross the chasm between the CO2 reduction commitments on the table and the level of commitment needed to prevent dangerous climate change - a 5 gigaton gap according to the UN.
Of course, failure is also possible at Cancun. Copenhagen has taught us never to rule out the worst case scenario. But if negotiators fail to clear these obstacles, they will do so in the face of a public belief in the need for change that's rapidly growing, and a steady rise in the actions to match. Just last week, a group of 260 investors managing $15 trillion of assets urged progress towards an international agreement in Cancun.
Whether the world will finish its fair, ambitious and binding treaty one day depends on the reality of politics, and not on the intangibles of process. If there is political will, real progress can be made. Maybe it's all a matter of getting the sequence right -- someone will move first and unlock a magic door for others to walk through.
I would be keen to hear what others think that catalyst could be, but my vote would be for the EU to up its game and commit to a 30% unilateral CO2 reduction target (something the European Parliament agrees with).
Who do you think will unlock the magic door to progress at the UNFCCC? Who will be the first mover? Leave your thoughts below.