Silliness about the debt ceiling has risen to the absurd. Anyone who steps back from the swirl of current arguments will immediately see that there is an easy, almost unavoidable exit from our current paralysis, and President Obama controls it. If Congress cannot reach agreement on terms for raising the debt ceiling, President Obama will have the inescapable duty to invoke the 14th Amendment and continue to pay U.S. debts. He may not like that option. He may be opposed to it in principle. But he will be compelled to take it unless he is seriously deluded about the state of the world.
Legal scholars may quibble about whether the 14th amendment allows or compels the president to blow past Congress' debt ceiling, but as a practical matter there is no question that if the president invokes it to avoid a looming economic disaster plain enough for all the world to see, there will be no legal recourse. Because the president has the power to ignore the debt limit, even if he doubts he has the authority to do so, he will be compelled to do so. If Congress is unable to act, he will have, whether he wants it or not, the last clear chance to avoid disaster. Whether he is a naïve ninny, innocent as a baby, and pure as the driven snow or a cynical Machiavellian manipulator without a principle to his name, he has to understand this: if he has the last clear chance to avoid the abyss and does not take it he will not be forgiven by his own supporters, by the American people, or by history itself. However, if he does save the system, he will be a hero to all but the most obtuse economic know-nothings and cynical demagogues. Even Corporate America will have to doubt that it can entrust all branches of government to the Republicans and consequently entrust the economy to the economic nincompoops who have shown themselves willing to destroy it for principles and theories they do not understand. No matter whether the decision terrifies him or disgusts him, President Obama will be compelled to act.
From a progressive, fiscally responsible, and security-conscious point of view, the consequences of presidential action would almost all be positive. Once the president ignores the debt ceiling there will be no going back. The world will understand that any future president, faced with the same situation, will have to take the same action. The full faith and credit of the United States will remain inviolate. Congress might as well stop enacting a debt limit. Not only will it not be enforceable, it will be universally perceived as meaningless.
The wisdom of markets deserves scant faith, but if they "understand" what I have just outlined, that may explain why U.S. and world markets have proceeded to date with seeming confidence that no default is likely.
There is a very sober side to all of this from the progressive point of view. The chance that President Obama and the members of his administration do not understand all of the above is vanishingly small. Consequently, it is very hard to explain all of the concessions the president has made to Republican intransigence except by the theory that he really shares many of the Republican objectives, from undermining Social Security to putting Medicare beyond the reach of millions of people, and is trying to use the manufactured "debt crisis" as an excuse to allow him to implement them.
But David Plouff said today (7/31) that the WH had considered this and rejected it. THAT IS NUTS!
The 14th says President Obama is not /allowed/ to skip paying the debt payments. Those are only $29 billion or so a month, which he can easily pay from the federal government's $200 billion-a-month in income.
The problem is that he's spending $1.76 for every dollar he has coming in ($3.82T in spending on $2.17T in revenue). The risk of eventual default comes from him spending far more money than we have, not from his failure to borrow and spend, then borrow and spend even more.
This is certainly the worst economic and political crisis in my lifetime in the USA, and ahead of us looms a potential constitutional crisis with unpredictable and potentially horrific consequences.
There's nothing "easy" about a president invoking the 14th Amendment and ignoring the duly-passed debt ceiling law. It's not simply "quibbling" when legal scholars try to assess just what's constitutionally permissible, and what the unintended consequences of any action might be. And everyone, including progressives, the fiscally-responsive and the security-conscious should very nearly choke on the suggestion that a president should ignore a duly-passed debt ceiling law - that may be necessary, that may be constitutionally sound, but it's not a welcome development.
And FYI, I find it easy to understand the concessions the president has made to Republican intransigence - only some of which were ever serious, potentially real concessions. It's easy to publicly make even grand concessions when you know that the other side is so intransigent that the concessions are still not enough.
What if there is no median? no agreement? then we default. and nobody gets paid. and our government as we know it collapses. what will the American People do then?
we have placed these people in these offices of Admistrative Authority.
Who do we blame? them? why ? because we put them there! we Should be pointing our Fingers at us!
we claim some have no common sense nor do they think about whats best for America. But.....
WE PUT THEM THERE! its our fault as much as it is their's!
People are not Perfect, the Proof is all that we survey in daily lives. (including our own). Yet we expect them to be. how presumptious we are. Talk about immaturity. We are a nation full of children. with no parents to guide us. ( no matter what our ages). we bicker like kids. we complain like kids. and we are so undecisive just like kids. we get into trouble and we want someone to perform a miricale to pull us out. this problem we face now. and those in the future. are not booboo's that we can just kiss all the hurt way. we need to see our error's and work together on a solution and Agree on the solution without hurt anyone!.
the ole saying of trying to make something out of nothing comes to mind.
or ...
Is it really Something that cant be saved even through the 14th Amendment?
in that case we might as well start kissing our life's as we know it good bye.
The Executive in this particular case, is doubly hampered. This is why, I believe, the President has consistently stated that he does not believe it is a viable option. He has consistently erred on the side of the Constitution, and respected the separation of powers to a degree that is without precedent in my lifetime (to much howling by his supporters).
WHAT HE CAN DO is instruct the Justice Department to petition the Courts that the Debt Ceiling law is in violation of the 14th and needs to be struck down as unconstitutional. Unfortunately, he can not do that until the provisions of the Debt Ceiling law takes effect (in other words, default) which would trigger the Constitutional basis for a challenge.
Naturally, this is a very bad thing because for the 14th to apply, default must take place. I see a lot of pontificating on this, but no one has addressed these very basic questions - can someone respectfully enlighten me?
Except that one of the lessons of recent history is that ceding endless power to the Executive gets you to Gitmo, and this assertion of Executive power would be no different in its potential hazards.
What I am completely sure of is that the public debate and the private debate are markedly different, and that the latter is fiendishly complex.
It is absolutely true. Obama will look like the adult. I would prefer he do it SUNDAY, before the markets even open Monday. Do it, go on television Sunday night to explain why, and announce that Congress will continue negotiations regarding the budget & the deficit (cuts v revenues), AND reiterate the need to get past this and talk about jobs & tax reform.
The best 2012 ad the President could have, after the OBL statement. And it would be free free free in prime time.