When all logic leaves an argument, which is something that seems to happen on a daily basis in politics, it is good to step back and lay things out in black and white. Give some perspective to a situation to show just how ridiculous the situation has become.
The unprecedented attack on the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has reached new heights with Republican Senator James Inhofe now calling for criminal investigations into the work of prominent climate change scientists.
Inhofe makes some very broad claims, based on a very narrow band of evidence, saying that, "the Minority Staff believes the emails and accompanying documents seriously compromise the IPCC-based "consensus" and its central conclusion that anthropogenic emissions are inexorably leading to environmental catastrophes."
Inhofe is claiming that based on statements made in 3 emails, by a single person, he has enough evidence to now claim that decades of research by thousands of scientists is "seriously compromised."
Like I said, politics and logic rarely go had-in-hand.
To lay out in black and white, below I have compiled a list of the scientific references used in just two of the forty four chapters of the last IPCC report. There are thousands of papers, by thousands of scientists, over decades that make up this body of research. Even if the so-called "climate gate" turned out to be the scandal Inhofe wants it to be, you could throw out that research and there would still remain thousands of papers, by thousands of scientists.
Take a quick look below at the list and you'll see what I mean. That is, of course, if you're willing to allow common sense back into the conversation on the subject of climate change.
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Follow Kevin Grandia on Twitter: www.twitter.com/kgrandia
There've been several comprehensive economic assessments of global warming, but none have gotten as much feedback as the 700 page Stern Review (commissioned by the U.K. Finance Ministry).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_Review
www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/lord-stern-on-global-warming-its-even-worse-than-i-thought-1643957.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bjorn_Lomborg
www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/ExtremeUncertaintyCliCh.pdf
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_climate_change_mitigation
Among them, attitudes range from: a) Too costly; so ignore it til we find a future miracle fix (Lomborg). b) The 2% GDP drag with serious steps asap beats the potential 20% drag if we ignore it (Stern Review). c) It's uncertain, but ignoring the worst case scenario is pretty stupid. So, let's set up some huge geo-engineering just in case we need it really fast (Weitzman).
Yet, as I've detailed below, basic physics shows that global warming is non-linear - the warmer it gets, the faster it'll warm. And the downside risk extends to catastrophic levels. So, as in prevention vs. cure, funding early mitigation seems far wiser than money spent late on massive remediation.
That said, if you're unconcerned about humanity or your own progeny's future, you have little incentive to bother with any of it.
Below is a 5 year moving average (satellite/surface data combo, heat island effects corrected), data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.pdf
Shows temperature rising fast from ~1980 by ~0.6 degs. C. Since then, CO2 also rose from 337 to 388 ppm, ~1.7ppm/year, accelerating to +2ppm/year.
www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#mlo_full
Combining the two graphs yields ~0.6 degs. C per 50ppm CO2 rise rate.
Given human greed and denial, there's little reason to believe we'll do more than shave the current rise rate back to 1.7ppm/year over the next 30 - 40 years. If so, we pass 450 ppm by 2050, for a total increase of 1.4 degs C (2.5 degs F) since 1980. Or 530ppm with 3.0 degs C (5.0 degs F) of increase by 2100.
This strictly linear calc ignores methane (21 times stronger a greenhouse gas than CO2) from thawing arctic peat bogs, lowered arctic albedo from melted polar ice caps, increased water vapor (still the dominant greenhouse gas) due to air warmed initially by CO2, etc. - all supra-linear effects, expected to increase the rise rate.
If you want a better estimate, try a full-blown model, like James Hansen's that says +5 degs C by AD 2100 and an eventual 9 meter sea level rise.
How much more water can air hold? If mean global surface temperature is T1 ~286.5 degs. K (above real zero - 56 degs. F), what happens if temperature rises 3 degs. to T2 = 289.5 degs. K, a 1.05% increase?
From the Magnus relation for saturation vapor pressure (max amount of water vapor air can hold at a given temperature),
e(T2)/e(T1) = exp(17.625 x T2/(T2 + 243.04) )/exp(17.625 x T1/(T1 +243.04) )
= 1.0467 , or 4.67% more water vapor for a 1.05% temperature increase,
clearly supra-linear.
This rough check neglects many mitigating factors: transport, convection, cloud condensation, rain-out, etc., but I can think of no instance where intra-system negative feedback ever fully compensated for an initial forcing. So, once CO2 warms the air initially, water vapor will increase supra-linearly with temperature, begetting a positive feedback to induce more warming.
We know humans produce ~35 Billion Tons of extra CO2/year. Yeah, old data says 26 billion, but we now have China and more people.
A way to ballpark it is: how much is 35 Billion Tons vs. our current 388 ppm of CO2 and its yearly rise rate? Answer:
Earth's radius = ~6,370,000 meters.
Scale Height of the atmosphere (height if it were all at sea level pressure) ~8 km.
Air Density at sea level: ~1.29 kg per cubic meter
So, mass of the atmosphere (4PI r squared x height) is: 4PI x 6,370,000m2 x 8,000m x 1.29 kg/m3 = ~5.26 quadrillion metric tons.
How much of it is CO2? At 388 ppm, it's (388/1,000,000) x 5.26 quadrillion tons = ~2.04 trillion tons.
So, 1 ppm of CO2 is 2.04 trillion tons/388 = 5.26 billion tons.
Ergo, human activity adds 35/5.26 = ~6.65 ppm to the yearly global CO2 budget.
Global CO2 is now rising at ~2.6 ppm per year. This suggests the Earth isn't a perfect sponge, but still re-adsorbs ~60% of our emissions, ~4 ppm per year!
Careful inventory says the Earth absorbs only ~50%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airborne_fraction
But grab your calculator and check this yourself. No computer or outside authorities needed.
The denier claim also ignores the intricate and finely tuned web of balances needed to maintain equilibrium in complex systems. Typically for stability, complex systems must juggle many delicate flux budgets, driven by nearly equal inputs and outputs. Even a small excess (e.g., human CO2 contributions), if added too quickly, can disrupt a fine balance between two large values. If that balance is metastable, a small deviation from net zero can amplify to alter the basic state.
Anthropogenic CO2 may be a destabilizer. CO2 levels are largely independent of temperature, but the level of water vapor (still the most dominant greenhouse gas) tends to rise with temperature. Thus, a little CO2-induced initial warming evaporates more water vapor from our oceans, and warmer air can hold more water vapor. Since more water vapor absorbs more thermal radiation, the warming gets amplified. Refinements, such as cellular transport and convection, cloud condensation/rain-out, etc., mitigate the basic notion, but the bottom line seems to be that
THE WARMER IT GETS, THE FASTER IT WARMS.
What are the implications of the disclosures for the integrity of scientific research?
1. The Institute is concerned that, unless the disclosed e-mails are proved to be forgeries or adaptations, worrying implications arise for the integrity of scientific research in this field and for the credibility of the scientific method as practised in this context.
2. The CRU e-mails as published on the internet provide PRIMA FACIE evidence of determined and co-ordinated refusals to comply with honourable scientific traditions and freedom of information law. The principle that scientists should be willing to expose their ideas and results to independent testing and replication by others, which requires the open exchange of data, procedures and materials, is vital. The lack of compliance has been confirmed.........
No serious physicist would write "prima facie" in all caps.
Case closed.
"Since 2002, McIntyre has repeatedly asked Phil Jones, director of CRU, for access to the HadCRU data. Although the data are made available in a processed gridded format that shows the global temperature trend, the raw station data are currently restricted to academics. While Jones has made data available to some academics, he has refused to supply McIntyre with the data. Between 24 July and 29 July of this year, CRU received 58 freedom of information act requests from McIntyre and people affiliated with Climate Audit."
Fifty-eight FOI requests in five days!
So why won't CRU comply?
According to Heffernan:
"Jones says that he tried to help when he first received data requests from McIntyre back in 2002, but says that he soon became inundated with requests that he could not fulfill, or that he did not have the time to respond to. He says that, in some cases, he simply couldn't hand over entire data sets because of long-standing confidentiality agreements with other nations that restrict their use."
http://www.salon.com/technology/how_the_world_works/2009/11/23/the_case_of_the_hacked_climate_change_e_mails_part_2/index.html
Like the "hide the decline" Email.
They had exposed the fact that these guys had removed the tree ring data for the last 50 years from their data set, because it showed a fall in temperatures, contrary to what thermometers and other measures indicate. so instead of honestly presenting the tree ring data set for the clearly unreliable measure that it is, they removed the part that showed a decline and replaced it with real thermometer data. This is utterly statistically nonsensical.
Furthermore, it inherently assumes that the decline that occurred over the last 50 years has never happened before, therefore masking OTHER periods of similarly warm temperatures, therefore utterly invalidating any conclusions that one would draw from tree ring data about whether or not this is the warmest period in the last 2000 years.
I ask you, when other scinetists get REALLY angry and defensive about presenting their data and methods, should that not send up a red flag right away? If their data and methods are good, it does not matter WHO asks for them. Just give it up all at once, right????????????????????????????
How could you deny humanity's impact on the environment unless you were delusional or criminally insane. It's too bad, we really did have a good streak in us.
Take the first article on this "ours is bigger than yours"-list of articles, and please *read* it, before you claim that it counts as "scientific evidence" for AGW. (Hint: it's from 1910.) Or, if you don't have time to read all those papers, then at least read the titles of the papers. Scientific papers have titles for a reason. They are not "votes".
S.
Then to state that a consensus isn't science as proof that global warming doesn't exist is truely vaporware.
You have written words, yet they mean nothing with regard to a specific scientific hypothesis.
Then you assume that these articles have not been read, nor their titles.
Then you say these articles are not votes.
In political speak you use many words to create confusion, say nothing relevant, and hopefully the time-stressed civilian will only think that your comment must mean the science is wrong and you are right.
About what? You didn't say.
Regarding the IPCC, ocean scientist James McCarthy of Harvard said: “The scientific community has been powerless to respond to attacks on the fundamental authority of IPCC, seemingly undermined by “two sentences on glaciers.” Small errors in the 2007 report were “careless” and minor," but then he described how the IPCC should have done a more public examination of how they came about.
Never will a scientist get his science from a politician. Not Al Gore, not James Inhofe. Why do you care so much about either of these two?
Wow... you can compile a list of irrelevant information as long as you want, but it still doesn't past the sniff test if you can catch my drift.
1.) According to NASA, the average temperature from 1940-1970 dropped .6°F. By the mid-Seventies the media was abuzz with notions of the next Ice Age. In its June 24, 1974 edition, Time magazine warned, "Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age", but those warning of global COOLING soon became disappointed, as from 1970 to 1998 there was a slight increase in temperature (.34°F), noted in both USGCN record and verified by satellite observations.
2.) Western Europe experienced cooling between the years 1150-1460 and a very cold climate between 1560-1850 that brought dire consequences to its people and impacted everything...
3.) Jones gave an interview to the BBC where he admitted there had been no "statistically significant" global warming for 15 years. He also now allows that there may have been other periods in the past 1,000 years that were as warm or warmer than today.
4.) History tells us that Britain grew wine grapes 2000 years ago, and 1000 years ago during the during warming periods. Since 1300, Britain has been too cold for wine grapes.
Sorry to supply facts instead of a list reminescent of a bibliography to confuse your lemmings... but I had to do it.
1) Average temperatures dropped between 1940 and 1970 because of the production and widespread use of CFC's commonly known by the DuPont trade name Freon. It was used primarily as a refrigerant. Since the late 1970s, the use of CFCs has been heavily regulated because of their destructive effects on the ozone layer. Prior to the 1970s there were limited pollution controls, allowing pollutant aerosols to act as coolants via reflection of solar radiation.
2) The Little Ice Age you speak of was thought by scientists to be a regionally phenomenon. However, if you look at the graph of the temperature data for the last 2000 years, there is no period where the reconstructed global temperatures have changed at a faster rate than in the last 50 years or so.
3) What did Dr. Phil Jones really say:
Question: Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming
Phil Jones: Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.
When professor Jones said there may have been other periods in the past 1,000 years that were as warm or warmer than today he was asked specifically to assume that the Medieval Warm Period was a global phenomenon and not regional, which is how most scientists interpret it.
Phil Jones: "Of course, if the MWP was shown to be global in extent and as warm or warmer than today (based on an equivalent coverage over the NH and SH) then obviously the late-20th century warmth would not be unprecedented. On the other hand, if the MWP was global, but was less warm that today, then current warmth would be unprecedented."
4) Wine is still made in the North of England, and it wins international prizes for its quality.
Your points are the usual denier myths.