With all the wild accusations flying around over the illegally obtained email correspondence from the University of East Climate Research Unit, I thought I would ask one of the scientists in the middle of the issue to provide some context.
Penn State University climate scientist, Dr. Michael Mann, whose name appears in some of the stolen emails, provided me with a run-down of the emails that involve him. His responses provide some much needed context and give you an idea of just how wildly some people have blown this story out of proportion.
What follows is quotes taken directly from the stolen emails, followed by Dr. Mann's response:
1. "I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i. e. from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline." (from Phil Jones).
Phil Jones has publicly gone on record indicating that he was using the term "trick" in the sense often used by people, as in "bag of tricks", or "a trick to solving this problem ...", or "trick of the trade".
In referring to our 1998 Nature article, he was pointing out simply the following: our proxy record ended in 1980 (when the proxy data set we were using terminates) so, it didn't include the warming of the past two decades. In our Nature-article we therefore also showed the post-1980 instrumental data that was then available through 1995, so that the reconstruction could be viewed in the context of recent instrumental temperatures. The separate curves for the reconstructed temperature series and for the instrumental data were clearly labeled.
The reference to "hide the decline" is referring to work that I am not directly associated with, but instead work by Keith Briffa and colleagues.
The "decline" refers to a well-known decline in the response of only a certain type of tree-ring data (high-latitude tree-ring density measurements collected by Briffa and colleagues) to temperatures after about 1960.
In their original article in Nature in 1998, Briffa and colleagues are very clear that the post-1960 data in their tree-ring dataset should not be used in reconstructing temperatures due to a problem known as the "divergence problem" where their tree-ring data decline in their response to warming temperatures after about 1960.
"Hide" was therefore a poor word choice, since the existence of this decline, and the reason not to use the post 1960 data because of it, was not only known, but was indeed the point emphasized in the original Briffa et al Nature article. There is a summary of that article available on this NOAA site.
There have been many articles since then trying to understand the reason for this problem, which applies largely to only one very specific type of proxy data (tree-ring wood density data from higher latitudes).
As for my research in this area more generally, there was a study commissioned by the National Academies of Science back in 2006 to assess the validity of paleoclimate reconstructions in general, and my own work in specific. A summary of that report, and link to it, is available here.
The New York Times (6/22/06), in an article about the report entitled "Science Panel Backs Study on Warming Climate" had the following things to say:
"A controversial paper asserting that recent warming in the Northern Hemisphere was probably unrivaled for 1,000 years was endorsed today, with a few reservations, by a panel convened by the nation's preeminent scientific body...At a news conference at the headquarters of the National Academies, several members of the panel reviewing the study said they saw no sign that its authors had intentionally chosen data sets or methods to get a desired result. "I saw nothing that spoke to me of any manipulation," said one member, Peter Bloomfield, a statistics professor at North Carolina State University. He added that his impression was the study was "an honest attempt to construct a data analysis procedure."
2. "Perhaps we'll do a simple update to the Yamal post. As we all know, this isn't about truth at all, its about plausibly deniable accusations." (from me)
This refers to a particular tree-ring reconstruction of Keith Briffa's.
These tree-ring data are just one of numerous tree-ring records used to reconstruct past climate. Briffa and collaborators were criticized (unfairly in the view of many of my colleagues and me) by a contrarian climate change website based on what we felt to be a misrepresentation of their work.
A further discussion can be found on the site "RealClimate.org" that I co-founded and help run. It is quite clear from the context of my comments that what I was saying was that the attacks against Briffa and colleagues were not about truth but instead about making plausibly deniable accusations against him and his colleagues.
We attempted to correct the misrepresentations of Keith's work in the RealClimate article mentioned above, and we invited him and his co-author Tim Osborn to participate actively in responding to any issues raised in the comment thread of the article which he did.
3. "Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise. He's not in at the moment -minor family crisis. Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don't have his new email address. We will be getting Caspar to do likewise." (from Phil Jones)
This was simply an email that was sent to me, and can in no way be taken to indicate approval of, let alone compliance with, the request. I did not delete any such email correspondences.
4. "I think we have to stop considering Climate Research as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal. Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal" (from me)This comment was in response to a very specific incident regarding a paper by Soon and Baliunas published in the journal "Climate Research".
An editor of the journal, with rather contrarian views on climate change, appeared to several of us to be gaming the system to let through papers that clearly did not meet the standards of quality for the journal. The chief editor (Hans von Storch), and half of the editorial board, resigned in protest of the publication of the paper, after the publisher refused to allow von Storch the opportunity to write an editorial about how the peer review process had failed in this instance. [editor note: DeSmogBlog has a full rundown of this story here]
Please see e.g. this post at RealClimate. (3rd bullet item--see the various links, which lead to letters from chief editor Von Storch, and an article by the journalist Chris Mooney about the incident).
Scientists all choose journals in which we publish and we all recommend to each other and our students which journals they should publish in.
People are free to publish wherever they can and are free to recommend some journals over others.
For an example of this behavior in daily life, people make choices and recommendations all the time in their purchasing habits. It is highly unusual for a chief editor and half of an editorial board to resign and that indicates a journal in turmoil that should possibly be avoided. Similarly, authors are allowed to cite any papers they want, although usually the editor will note incorrect or insufficient citing.
I support the publication of "skeptical" papers that meet the basic standards of scientific quality and merit.
I myself have published scientific work that has been considered by some as representing a skeptical point of view on matters relating to climate change (for example, my work demonstrating the importance of natural oscillations of the climate on multidecadal timescales).
Skepticism in the truest scientific sense of the word is good and is indeed essential to science. Skepticism should not be confused, however, with contrarianism that does not meet the basic standards of scientific inquiry.
5 "'It would be nice to try to contain the putative "MWP" (from me)
In this email, I was discussing the importance of extending paleoclimate reconstructions far enough back in time that we could determine the onset and duration of the putative "Medieval Warm Period".
Since this describes an interval in time, it has to have both a beginning and end. But reconstructions that only go back 1000 years, as most reconstructions did at the time, didn't reach far enough back to isolate the beginning of this period, i.e. they are not long enough to "contain" the interval in question.
In more recent work, such as the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007, the paleoclimate reconstructions stretch nearly 2000 years back in time, which is indeed far enough back in time to "contain" or "isolate" this period in time.
-----
For political and financial reasons, a handful of very vocal critics have been using these e-mails to create the impression that they somehow refute the decades of research by thousands of scientists finding that climate change is a serious issue caused by our over reliance on fossil fuels like oil and coal.
That's an unfair claim, as many of the more rational media outlets have pointed out.
From the context Dr. Mann has provided above, it is clear that these emails are being used as political weapons in a last ditch effort to stop the world from taking the necessary action to reduce fossil fuel dependency and minimize the devastating effects of climate change.
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http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/11/greatest-scientific-scandal-of-our-age.html
I have a real problem with a "scientist" working for a government who commits a crime in covering up or erasing data so that he does not have it to respond to a freedom of information act request. That is criminal, far more so than hacking of the e-mails.
Which may not have been hacked at all. Ever heard of whistle blowing?
Because they're common thieves, hired by uncommon bosses, similar to the Watergate break-in. When British police find them, they're gonna sing and you're gonna cry.
http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/2009/nov/CRUupdate
CRU climate data already ‘over 95%’ available
Over 95% of the CRU climate data set concerning land surface temperatures has been accessible to climate researchers, sceptics and the public for several years the University of East Anglia has confirmed.
“It is well known within the scientific community and particularly those who are sceptical of climate change that over 95% of the raw station data has been accessible through the Global Historical Climatology Network for several years. We are quite clearly not hiding information which seems to be the speculation on some blogs and by some media commentators,” commented the University’s Pro-Vice-Chancellor, Research Enterprise and Engagement Professor Trevor Davies.
The University will make all the data accessible as soon as they are released from a range of non-publication agreements. Publication will be carried out in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre.
The procedure for releasing these data, which are mainly owned by National Meteorological Services (NMSs) around the globe, is by direct contact between the permanent representatives of NMSs (in the UK the Met Office).
If you look at the search box suggestions for "Climate" in Google and in Bing there seems to be a difference. Does this reflect a difference in the users or operators of each search engine? What does this say about subtle manipulation of information concerning this issue?
"If the main claim to authority of the climate science community is the peer review of their papers and they are shown to be compromising this process to push an agenda it is very bad."
It hasn't.
"I have been a bit suprised by some of the stuff I have seen in the peer reviewed climate science papers that should have been addressed by a good peer review and it was just allowed to slip by. I understand it is an imperfect process, but the possibility of groupthink in community has been allegded and supported by the leaked emails."
Typical denier vagueness.
"The climate science community really needs to show how their peer review process and respect for scientific methods are maintained and supported - hunkering down and calling their critics 'deniers' just adds fuel to the fire, and supports the assertions of the critics."
When deniers can publish some valid science, they won't need to keep pretending that science is supposed to be a "debate." Until then, "denier" and other pejoratives not fit to print are what befit the quality of your rhetoric and reasoning.
"Publish or perish."
Not you personally, but the "ideas" of your denialist cult. If you can't support them with science you don't deserve equal time and equal respect for your opinions as the thousands of hard working scientists who can.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6936328.ece
http://www.newscorp.com/operations/newspapers.html
United Kingdom
News International
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The Sun
The Sunday Times
The Times
Times Literary Supplement
http://www.newscorp.com/management/board.html
Board of Directors
# Rupert Murdoch
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
News Corporation
http://www.newscorp.com/operations/cable.html
FOX Business Network
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Speed
STAR
Stats, Inc.
All the same "News" Corporation, all lies.
According to Briffa this is probably from AGW after 1960, which Mann concludes is happening, using Briffa's data.
The results of climate research involve the fate of the world, or at the least the fate of trillions of dollars. The lack of transparency in much of this research is intolerable, especially given that so much of it is paid through taxpayers' dollars. Other scientists must be able to verify the results.
No more "Trust me, I'm a doctor."
"From the context Dr. Mann has provided above, it is clear that these emails are being used as political weapons in a last ditch effort to stop the world from taking the necessary action to reduce fossil fuel dependency and minimize the devastating effects of climate change."
Just another tempest in a teapot or....Much ado about nothing.....yes, I think that fits quite nicely!!!