There you are, Donald Trump. (Nathan Congleton/Flickr)[/caption]
Dear Donald Trump,
So you're the Republican presidential candidate. Can you win?
First, the bad news
A lot of people don't like you. In fact, you have historically high unfavorable numbers, meaning you are the most disliked presidential candidate EVER.
With pretty much every group.
Like the college educated.
Wow. https://t.co/b7ukmEfbi4 pic.twitter.com/93D5jI6kj8
— Jamelle Bouie (@jbouie) May 5, 2016
Like Hispanic voters, including many immigrants from Mexico and Latin American countries. There's a spike in the number immigrants applying for citizenship--specifically so they can vote against you in November.
Black voters aren't your biggest fans either.
Trump unfavorables
women 70%
Latinos 80%
Blacks 90%
but sure #NeverTrump folks did it pic.twitter.com/mKdVPB1ECI
— andrew kaczynski (@BuzzFeedAndrew) April 27, 2016
Neither are women--both liberal and conservative.
Or LGBT voters.
Survey: LGBT voters back Clinton over Trump by 4-1 margin https://t.co/qrkS2iRXaV #gay | https://t.co/lkPOElmBPc
— MyGay.net (@mygaynet) May 4, 2016
The white working class is supposedly your base, but that may not really be true.
You've got a steep uphill battle with millennials.
Even many Republican donors and longtime Republican party strategists and operatives say #NeverTrump.
I'm changing my registration tomorrow. I am no longer a Republican. I will not vote for Trump. I'm finished playing the prisoner's dilemma.
— Charles Stricklin (@cstricklin) May 4, 2016
Not to mention other Republican leaders.
Including House Speaker Paul Ryan, the highest-ranking Republican in office, who said he's not ready to endorse Trump "right now." (Don't forget, Ryan just gave a speech railing against "ugliness" in politics.)
And, like, Americans overall.
Another problem for you are many offensive things you've said in the campaign so far and over the years.
You're widely seen as hateful.
The good news for you
You are doing really well with certain demographics, like white supremacists.
And, despite your personal history, evangelicals.
A lot of the people who are voting for you strongly support your stances on both undocumented immigrants and Muslims.
Including--surprise!--some Muslims. Like, about 11% of them.
And some political experts think you have a way higher chance than most people realize.
Actually, you're already expected to do better with black voters than Mitt Romney did in 2012.
Black America For Trump #Trump2016 #BlacksForTrump #NeverHillary #VoteTrump @VanJones68 @seanhannityhttps://t.co/6D5ptaL3Ac
— Immigrants☆4☆Trump (@immigrant4trump) May 5, 2016
So far, you've benefited from being unpredictable and unorthodox, and being good at social media and TV. There's no reason to think that won't keep helping you.
And your personal attacks--like "Little Marco" and "Lyin' Ted"--have been pretty effective. You've already started "Crooked Hillary."
No one should dismiss your ability to appeal to the #NeverHillary / #BernieorBust crowd, including people who support the political revolution Bernie Sanders has been agitating for.
The Bernie Sanders voters who would choose Trump over Clintonhttps://t.co/OZWs3oNCH3 #DropOutHillary #Trump2016 #Kasich #NeverHillary
— Immigrants☆4☆Trump (@immigrant4trump) May 4, 2016
Besides, you've already won the Republican nomination, so from your end, you're already going head-to-head with Hillary Clinton, while she has to both keep battling Bernie Sanders AND face you too.
Everyone's waiting to see who you pick to be your running mate--which could give you a boost.
Let's see what happens.
This article was written by Holly Epstein Ojalvo and originally appeared on Kicker. Kicker explains the most important, compelling things going on in the world and empowers you to get in the know, make up your own mind, and take action. For more, check out the Kicker site, like their Facebook page, or subscribe to their email newsletter.