In April, all signs pointed to a slam dunk for McCain in Florida, a state that has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate only once in the last 28 years. McCain was favored by 49.7%* of Floridians, while just 38% supported Obama. The Republican's snickered when the Obama campaign announced that Florida would be one of its focus states.
McCain held on to a strong lead in the polls until mid-September, when he suddenly began to lose the confidence of Florida voters. At the same time, Obama began to gain ground. The results of his well organized grassroots campaigners, the "feet on the street," and his huge investment in radio and television advertising were starting to pay off. By the end of the month, the race was a virtual dead heat, with both candidates around 47%. Just a week later, the polls showed Obama in the lead by 4%! In the past six months overall, support for Obama has risen 11.3%, while McCain has lost 4.4% of his base, proving beyond a doubt that Obama is converting the undecideds in addition to more than a few disenchanted Republicans.
McCain's slide began immediately after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and the "Black Monday" stock market slide of 504 points. It's clear evidence that voters have laid the blame for the financial crisis on the Republicans, and see McCain as a continuation of the same failed policies. McCain's "suspending my campaign to rescue America" stunt failed to impress the Florida voting public. He dropped another 2 points between the day of the announcement and the day the house failed to pass the first bail-out plan.
Despite the GOP's effusive praise for Sarah Palin's performance at the VP debate, and their hopes that would resuscitate his dying campaign, McCain's numbers have continued their downward trend with nary a pause. However, Palin is still a big draw in the Sunshine State. She recently attracted an estimated 25,000 in The Villages, a retirement community described by local columnist Dan Ruth as "More Republican than the Reagan Library." In the Tampa Bay area Monday, an estimated 4,500 came to watch to Sarah desperately try to convince them that William Ayers is Obama's best bud and that Reverend Wright remains his spiritual advisor.
The McCain campaign is counting on Palin to raise cash as well as points in the polls. The "Drill-ah from Wasilla," had two fundraisers and another speech scheduled that day. One luncheon event was $10,000 per plate meet and greet at the Naples home of long-time Republican donor and founder of the money-market management firm, Federated Investors, Jack Donahue. It remains to be seen whether she can help in the money department, but as far as votes go, it seems she is creating more curiosity than converts.
Although McCain's national spokespersons have gone out of their way to pooh-pooh the significance of recent polling data in paradise, the Florida GOP is frantic. Last week, Republican Party chairman Jim Greer convened a top secret meeting for party officials in Tallahassee to try to turn things around. However, his take on things was not well received at the national level, and he has found himself officially snubbed by the big dogs. He had to make his own travel arrangements to attend the Palin events Monday.
Meanwhile Palin flew in with Governor Charlie Crist, Rep. Mel Martinez, and others still in the national campaign's good graces. Stumping for McCain, Crist, once a top contender for McCain's VP choice, has been the very model of a modern major domo, although he must be gritting his teeth at having to sing the praises of Palin to crowd after crowd.
To Democrats in Florida, (most of whom still believe Bush stole the 2000 election), having Obama in the lead is nothing short of a minor miracle. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen poll has unaffiliated voters in the state 59% for Obama vs. just 32% for McCain. Obama also leads with Hispanics 67% to 33%. The good news just keeps getting better.
Although there is still a month to go, barring a major catastrophe, the McCain campaign will continue to flounder in Florida. Perhaps, after suffering from electile dysfunction for the past eight years, Flori-duh is finally fed up with being a national joke. If the polls are any indication, Floridians are determined to get it right this time.
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*unless otherwise noted, all polling data quotes is from RCP
