In Jon Stewart's 2004 satirical textbook on government and politics, America: A Citizen's Guide to Democracy Inaction, the chapter on elections features an illustration of a graveyard of political parties, complete with an archway sign reading "abandon political viability all ye who enter here." There, next to the Whig and Bull Moose parties, was a freshly dug grave with a tombstone reading "Democratic Party 1828 - ".
Oh, how things have changed.
Today's Republican Party finds itself in dire straits, but the short term challenges the party faces also come with a longer-term concern: the GOP's recent poor performance among young voters. In the 2008 election, Obama defeated McCain among young voters 66-32. Of even more concern for the GOP, young voters kept voting for Democrats down the ballot, with 63% of those 18-29 voting for Democratic house candidates compared to 34% for the Republicans.
This is not simply an isolated, Obama-induced phenomenon. In 2006, young voters picked Democratic house candidates over Republicans by a 60-38 margin. But it's also not as if young voters have always been more likely to call themselves Democrats; even when more identified as "liberal" than "conservative" during the 1992 election of Bill Clinton, there were still more 18-29 year olds identifying as Republican, perhaps a lingering effect of the Reagan years.
To say that young voters are always more Democratic or that 2008's poor performance among 18-29 year olds is the product of Obama alone is to underestimate the gravity of the situation. The problem is a serious one, and the Republican Party would do well to pay attention. Young voters who start voting today and have a bad taste in their mouth about the GOP are likely to look at politics through that lens for years to come. Gallup just released a study that supports this theory of how people identify with political parties; those who came of political age in the Reagan era were much more likely to identify as Republican than those who came before or after. The events of today matter tomorrow and for decades to come.
But what can be done with young voters? Much of the current discussion has focused around leveraging technology or moderating on social positions. But the idea that the GOP can get all of their members to sign up for Twitter, flip its position on gay marriage and suddenly have young voters rushing to join the party misses the point. The problem is that the Republican Party today has failed to articulate a vision for America that resonates with the values of the Millenial Generation. Luckily for the GOP, there is still a chance to win these voters back.
In order to begin that effort, the GOP needs to have a positive message and vision that focuses on outcomes that matter to young voters. Right now, a lot of what Republicans are talking about is "less taxes" and "smaller government." But young voters are less convinced than older generations that the government tends to be inefficient and wasteful. One of the things that the Clinton years of relative peace and prosperity did was to make young voters less likely to view "small government" as a positive end in and of itself. This isn't to say that there isn't a compelling story to tell about the virtues of keeping a check on expanding government size, but right now the Republican Party isn't telling it. Instead there are calls for smaller government, less spending, and then... full stop. No outcome, no argument for why that is a good thing, just a silence that expects voters see the virtue in the process alone.
Democrats may pass policies that are irresponsible but if the Republican Party doesn't provide a sensible alternative, there's no reason for young voters to be attracted to the GOP. And when I say "sensible alternative," I don't just mean talking about the process of the policies, I mean talking about the outcome. For instance, on the issue of size of government, the question to answer now is "How is my life better because the government is small?" Explaining why Republican policies are worth supporting requires a clear articulation of the positive outcome of those policies. This is perhaps most true for young voters.
The other side of component is that the vision must be positive. If Republicans make these next elections all about the Democrats, with a strategy centered on trotting out tried and tired negative attacks through the traditional 30-second "dark picture and spooky voice" television spot, they lose. And not just among young voters. It is that simple.
Here is where new technology has a role to play. New tools for connecting with voters -- blogs, social media, YouTube, you name it -- should be used by the Republican Party in order to have a fighting chance at reaching young voters, who increasingly are heading online and are getting personally involved in campaigns through the internet. But joining Twitter doesn't guarantee you will have an army of adoring followers. And if a party and its candidates don't have anything compelling to say, it is all just empty noise anyhow. The medium is not the entire message, and one without the other doesn't have a fighting chance with the Millenials.
Longer term, the Republican Party has to confront the issue of diversity. If the Republican Party retains a brand as the party tailor-made for conservative older white males, it will not survive for long. Consider the fact that younger voters represent a more ethnically diverse cohort than other generations. The issue of winning the youth vote is more and more inextricably linked to winning support among Hispanics and African-Americans.
There's also the issue of ideological diversity. Some have said that the GOP needs to move one way or another on the ideological spectrum in order to come back to power, but I see that as a false choice. More than fixating on moving the party one way or another, the priority should be expanding the reach of the GOP to reassemble a majority coalition. Former NJ Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, an outspoken GOP moderate, recently said "I am not saying to Christian conservatives, 'There is no place for you.' I am saying, 'Please stop saying there is no place for us.'" The Republican Party should focus its efforts on creating a diverse coalition that can win again, and those efforts need to include bringing young voters into the fold.
In the end, the Republican Party has a long road back with young voters, but the difficulty of the task only underscores the need to undertake it. The political winds have changed since the 2004 election for a whole host of reasons. And without taking proactive steps to repair the standing of the GOP with young voters, there is a great risk that the election of 2008 will echo in election returns for decades to come.
I haver read many articles from you and all are informative and excellent. ( in pollster.com )
I may be wrong but I think that you are a "Moderate Republican" and that is a kind of people that we can accept and even like.
The "Colorado Independent" says
"Only eight percent of Americans agree with Tom Tancredo that Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor “is a racist,” according to a non-partisan poll released Friday. A majority ranks “empathy” as important for a Supreme Court justice and an even bigger majority says Sotomayor is qualified for the high court.
The results, The Plum Line’s Greg Sargent writes, “strongly suggests that the two main right-wing talking points about Sonia Sotomayor are a bust.”
I have gathered hundreds of articles on Sonia Sotomayor :
Milenials.com
Vicente Duque
If it ain't YOUR BODY,
if it ain't YOUR BEDROOM
If it ain't YOUR MEDICAL RESEARCH
If it ain't YOUR MARRIAGE
If it ain't YOUR END OF LIFE DECISION
IT AIN'T YOUR BU$INE$$
. . . well, on second thought, I guess there's no chance of that happening.
Do you really think that rich Dems or Reps are going to give tax breaks to poor people. All the rich do is bleed poor people with high income tax rates & high sales tax.
Rich people distract poor people with with nonsense issues, and then change the laws to justify it.
Foxnews, CNN, or MSNBC do not promote the issues poor & middle class support.
At the end of the day the poor & middle class pay higher percentage in all taxes than rich people.
Rich people pay for their laws, thats why they always win.
I only wish that polititions were a little bit cheaper, because justice is expensive.
I only see my tax dollars pay to keep corporations liquid :(
When do the people get the taxs cut we voted for!
Pair this slogan up with an image of Mitch McConnell in a thong and you see the GOP has a ready made vehicle for capturing the youth vote. The news reels will run it in every movie house, and make sure the print version is in every Sunday paper across the land.
If you give tax breaks to the middle class & poor, and provide us with jobs we would vote republican every year. If you protect the constitional rights of the urban youth, you would enjoy power for years. The
Middle class is drowning under the city unfair laws.
The NYC is becoming a TAX & Fine State.
Wilbur
That means, for the most part, that they have to retire the old toads, and young toads, who spout the hate-speak. I won't believe those people, even if they change what they say. After all, they contradict their earlier statements all the time. So those people have no credibility with me.
They are going to have to repopulate their numbers with accepting, collaborative, smart people, who aren't inclined to the agree-with-us-or-you're-going-to-hell philosophy that is all I hear now.
They do not understand that an educated voter wants to have problems defined and solutions proposed. 'Obama is a Socialist, and here's where Rush explained it', is not gonna cut it.
In addition, NYPD eat us for lunch every day, and laugh at us in the court room.
BTW, Why Do they need to bring their guns inside the court room?.
The Urban Sufferer!
HELP PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!
PS. I contacted President Obama, Gov Patterson, NY Senator, daily news, and talk show hosts
For Matrix fans this happens every day in NYC:
check ticket revenue, is it me?
Need Help! NYPD, DOT & Traffic Court are over reaching on the people's rights. They are breaking the law!
Traffic Courts in NY are unconstituional! NY State is over reaching on our rights.; its almost criminal. How do we sue NY State Traffic Court? Lets at least get a public investigation.
On my NYPD Ticket it states: "FINES COULD BE HIGHER IF YOU PLEAD NOT GUILTY AND ARE THEN FOUND GUILTY AT HEARING etc ..." What kind of court is this? Do this Without a NYPD badge, would put the average man in Jail.
I have no way of requesting documents from the D.O.T to prepare for my losing case. Isn't this a problem. Who protects us from the STATE!
AT My last hearing the city provided no physical evidense to support the ticket fine of $230 + the surcharges.
I pay taxes for these roads, and then they fine me to drive on these roads. Whats up with that?
I pay DOT for the bridges everyday to get from far rockaway to Harlem, I sell 1 t-shirt from my store, then I get a ticket that I can't even defend. This is after losing my IT Job to the companies with offshore grand caymen accounts.
AT WHAT POINT SHOULD I GET ANGRY?
I see that GM CEOs don't get traffic tickets :(.
What NYC needs is basic:
Good education & Jobs -
Every Election you forget about us, but the poor people in NYC are drowning. The poor is over taxed, the little that is worked is sucked up by sales taxes, property taxes, tolls, etc... or what ever Bloomberg invents, while he gets crown next year.
Please Help
Urban Sufferer